Colorado Buffaloes vs. Oregon Ducks Pick & Predictions

Colorado Buffaloes (20-9 SU, 12-16-1 ATS) vs. Oregon Ducks (19-10 SU, 14-14 ATS)

When: Thursday, March 7th, 9:00 PM (ET)

Where: Matthew Knight Arena, OR, Eugene

TV: ESPN2

Point Spread: COL +2.5/ORE -2.5

Total: 150.5

Money Line: Colorado Buffaloes +119/-146

Notable Injuries

Buffaloes

• Julian Hammond (Questionable) Knee
• RJ Smith (Out) Leg
• Cody Williams (Questionable) Ankle

Ducks

Recent Form

Colorado is 20-9 overall and 11-7 in Pac-12 play. The Buffaloes have won four straight games, including their most recent matchup against Stanford, 81-71. On the road this season, they are 3-8, and over their last 10 road games, they are 2-8.

As underdogs this season, the Buffaloes are 1-4, and they have been favored in 24 of their 29 games, going 19-5 in those contests. Their average scoring margin at home is +16.7, compared to -5.3 on the road.

Today’s over/under line of 150.5 is higher than the average over/under line in Colorado’s games this season (149.6). So far, 17 of their games have finished with more points than today’s line. In their last three games, the over/under record is 2-1.

As the underdog this season, Colorado has gone just 1-4 vs. the spread. On the road, the Buffaloes have a 2-9 ATS mark this year and are just 2-8 in their last 10 road games vs. the spread. Overall, Colorado’s ATS record for the season is 12-16-1.

Coming off a 103-83 loss to Arizona, the Ducks are 19-10 overall and 11-7 in Pac-12 action. At home, they are 13-3 compared to 6-6 on the road.

For the season, Oregon has been favored in 20 games, going 16-4, and they are favored by 2.5 points tonight. Their average scoring margin at home is +8.6, and they are 8-2 in their last 10 games at home.

This season, the over/under record for Oregon games is 15-12-1, and today’s line of 150.5 is higher than the average over/under line in their games (146.2). Over their last three games, the over/under record is 2-1, and in their last five games, the average scoring total is 145 points.

Overall, Oregon has an ATS record of 14-14 this season. At home, the Ducks are 9-7 vs. the spread. Over their last 10 games as the favorite, Oregon is just 2-8 ATS, and they have gone 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as the favorite.

Analysis

Colorado’s offense is coming off a good game, putting up 81 points vs. Stanford. Overall, they hit 53.2% of their shots from the field and went 4/9 from the free-throw line. On the offensive front, the Buffaloes have a season-long field goal percentage of 49%, ranking 31st nationally. When it comes to three-point shooting, they are ranked 34th in terms of percentage and 229th in three-pointers made.

Colorado’s defense is currently in line with the NCAA average for points allowed, allowing an average of 72.5 points per game. In their most recent game, the Colorado defense struggled to defend the three-point line, as Stanford knocked down 11 three-pointers on their way to 71 points.

Oregon is fresh off a strong offensive showing, putting up 83 points versus Arizona. This output is higher than their season average of 76.2 points per game. Jermaine Couisnard was the leading scorer for the Ducks, putting up 39 points. In addition, N’Faly Dante contributed 16 points.

At present, the Ducks’ defense is nationally ranked 191st, allowing 72.6 points per game. In their previous game vs. Arizona, the Wildcats finished with a field goal percentage of 60% and a total of 103 points vs. Oregon.

Betting Trends

• When looking at their past three road matchups, Colorado has an ATS record of 1-2 while averaging 73 per game. The team went 1-2 overall in these games.
• Through their last five home games, Oregon has an ATS record of just 1-4. However, their overall record was 2-3 while averaging 69 points per game.
• The last five games that Colorado was the underdog, they have an ATS mark of 1-4 while going 1-4 straight up.
• Through their previous three contests as the betting favorite, the Ducks have a strong record of 2-1. Their record vs the spread in these matchups is 0-3.

Rich Crew’s Pick To Cover The Spread

The Buffs may be without a couple of key players and while they haven’t had a lot of success on the road winning games, they have played many teams close. They contained the Ducks leading scorer Jermaine Couisnard in the earlier matchup and I think a repeat of that gets them the money here. Take Colorado +3

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