College Basketball Picks: Michigan State vs. Minnesota 2/6/24

Michigan State Spartans (14-8 SU, 13-9 ATS) vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers (14-7 SU, 15-4-1 ATS)

When: Tuesday, February 6th, 9:00 PM (ET)

Where: Williams Arena, MN, Minneapolis

TV: PEAC

Point Spread: MST -3/MINNST +3

Total: 139

Money Line: Michigan State Spartans -158/+129

Notable Injuries

Spartans

• Steven Izzo (Questionable) Undisclosed
• Davis Smith (Out) Undisclosed
• Jeremy Fears Jr. (Out) Leg
• Gehrig Normand (Out) Foot

Golden Gophers

• Erick Reader (Out) Undisclosed

Recent Form

Michigan State has been much better at home this season, as they are 13-4 compared to 1-4 on the road. Their average scoring margin at home is +15.2, while it is -7.4 on the road.

So far this season, the Spartans have been favored in 16 games, going 12-4 in those contests. Their overall record is 14-8, and they have won two games in a row.

Michigan State’s over/under record for the season sits at 10-12, and the average scoring total in their games is 140.6 points. Today’s over/under line of 139 is lower than the average OU line in their games this year (141.4). Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 135 points and their OU record during this stretch is 1-2. So far, 13 of their games have finished with more points than today’s OU line of 139.

Michigan State has an overall ATS record of 13-9 this season, and they have gone 10-6 vs. the spread when favored. On the road, the Spartans are 2-3 ATS this year and they have gone 4-6 in their last 10 road games vs. the spread.

Minnesota is 11-3 at home this season, and they have gone 8-2 in their last 10 games at home. For the season, they have an average scoring margin of +14.6 at home, and they are 10-1 when they are favored.

So far, Minnesota has gone 4-5 in Big Ten play, and they are 14-7 overall. They are coming off a win against Penn State, and they have gone 3-2 in their last five games at home.

This season, the over/under record for Minnesota games is 10-10 and today’s OU line of 139 is lower than the average OU line in their games (143.8). Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 139 points and the OU record is 2-1.

As the underdog this season, Minnesota has gone 6-3 vs. the spread. At home, the Golden Gophers have an ATS mark of 11-2-1. Over their last 10 games as the underdog, Minnesota has a strong ATS record of 7-3.

Analysis

Against Maryland, Michigan State had a tough time putting up points compared to their season average of 75.4 points per game. They scored 63 points and posted a field goal percentage of 44.4% in the game. The team’s scoring leader is Tyson Walker, who holds an average of 18.9 as they head into today’s matchup. Additionally, Malik Hall is averaging 11.6 points per game this season.

This season, the Michigan State defense has been impressive, holding the 37th position in the country while permitting an average of 65.3 points per contest. On average, opposing teams are hitting 7.5 threes per game vs. Minnesota. This has come on three-point shooting percentage of 31.4%.

Minnesota’s offense is coming off a strong performance vs. Penn State, finishing the game with a total of 83 points. Their season average is now 76.5 points per game. The team’s top scorer is Dawson Garcia, who comes into today’s matchup with an average of 17.7, while Mike Mitchell Jr. also maintains a PPG average of 10.3 leading up to the game.

The Golden Gophers’ defense is presently ranked 85th nationally, allowing an average of 68.2 points per contest. So far, the Minnesota defense is giving up an average of 8.5 offensive rebounds per game and are turning teams over 11.9 times per game (581st).

Betting Trends

• Across their ten previous road games, Michigan State has an ATS mark of 4-6. Their straight up record in these matchups was 3-7 while averaging 75 points per game.
• When looking at their past three home matchups, Minnesota has an ATS record of 2-1 while averaging 70 per game. The team went 1-2 overall in these games.
• Minnesota has done well both straight up and vs the spread when favored to win the game, going 2-1 SU and 2-1 ATS in their last three games.
• Michigan State has done well both straight up and vs the spread when favored to win the game, going 4-1 SU and 4-1 ATS in their last five games.

Rich Crew’s Pick To Cover The Spread

The Golden Gophers have been strong at home going 12-3 straight up but they haven’t beaten much. On the campaign, Michigan State (14-8) and Minnesota (14-7) have similar records, but their is a huge difference in the quality of opponents. The Spartans have played the 14th ranked strength of schedule while the Gophers sched ranks 178th. Statistically the visitor shoots and defends better. The Spartans have been hot with five wins in their last six, but the wins all came at home and the loss was their lone road game. I think that is giving us some line value here. Take Michigan State -3.5