Clemson Tigers vs. Baylor Bears Pick & Predictions

Clemson Tigers (22-11 SU, 17-14-2 ATS) vs. Baylor Bears (24-10 SU, 20-13-1 ATS)

When: Sunday, March 24th, 6:10 PM (ET)

Where: FedExForum, TN, Memphis

TV: TNT

Point Spread: CLMSN +4.5/BAYL -4.5

Total: 144.5

Money Line: Clemson Tigers +156/-192

Notable Injuries

Tigers

• Bas Leyte (Out) Shoulder
• Alex Hemenway (Out) Leg
• Jake Heidbreder (Out) Redshirt

Bears

• Langston Love (Out) Ankle
• Yanis Ndjonga (Out) Knee

Recent Form

As a road underdog this season, Clemson has gone 5-3, and they are 22-11 overall. They have a scoring differential of +2.3 points per game on the road, and they come in having won their last game against New Mexico by a score of 77-56.

Over their last ten road games, the Tigers are 4-6, and they are 7-6 on the road this season. For the year, they have gone 11-10 in Atlantic Coast Conference games.

Today’s over/under line of 144.5 is in line with the average over/under line in Clemson’s games this season (147.6). So far, 15 of their games have finished with more points than today’s line. Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 140 points, and their over/under record in their last 10 games is 3-7.

As the underdog, Clemson has been a solid bet against the spread this season, going 7-1. Their overall ATS record is 17-14-2. On the road, the Tigers have an ATS mark of 9-4 and are 1-2 in their last three road games vs. the spread.

With a record of 18-2 at home this season, Baylor has been dominant in their own building. The Bears have won four straight games at home, and they have gone 8-2 in their last 10 games at the Ferrell Center.

Overall, Baylor is 24-10 this season, and they have gone 12-9 in Big 12 play. They have been favored in 23 of their 34 games, and they have gone 21-2 in those contests.

On the season, the over/under record for Baylor is 19-15, and today’s over/under line of 144.5 is lower than the average over/under line in their games this year (146.1). Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 140 points compared to their season average of 151.1 points per game. So far, 12 of their games have finished with less points than today’s over/under line of 144.5.

As the favorite, Baylor has been outstanding vs. the spread this season, going 16-6-1. Their home ATS mark of 14-5-1 is also impressive. Over their last 10 games as the favorite, the Bears are 7-2-1 and they are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as the favorite.

Analysis

In their latest game, Clemson’s offense put up 77 points against New Mexico. They recorded an overall field goal percentage of 44.4% and made 7 threes. For the season, the Clemson offense has been one of the more efficient shooting teams in the NCAA, with a field goal percentage of 46%. So far, they have hit 54% of their looks from inside the arc and are averaging 8.3 made threes per contest.

Clemson’s defense is currently in line with the NCAA average for points allowed, allowing an average of 70.8 points per game. Against New Mexico in their most recent game, the Clemson defense gave up a total of 56 points while allowing New Mexico to hit 44% of their shots.

In their latest game, Baylor’s offense looked good, scoring 92 points against Colgate. They recorded an overall field goal percentage of 57.9% and made 10/14 free throws. Jalen Bridges was the leading scorer for the Bears, putting up 23 points. In addition, Ja’Kobe Walter contributed 19 points.

Coming into today’s game, the Baylor defense is giving up an average of 71.2 points per contest. Baylor’s defense is coming off a game in which they allowed the Colgate offense to knock down 57% of their shots on their way to putting up 67 points.

Betting Trends

• When looking at their past three road matchups, Clemson has an ATS record of 1-2 while averaging 73 per game. The team went 1-2 overall in these games.
• Through their last five home contests, the Bears offense has averaged 71 points per game while allowing an average of 73. Baylor posted an overall record of 2-3 while going 2-3 ATS.
• Spanning across their last ten games as the betting underdog, the Tigers have gone 7-3 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 5-5.
• In their last ten games as the betting favorite, the Bears have a straight-up record of 9-1 and an ATS mark of 7-2-1.

Rich Crew’s Point Spread Pick

Baylor’s offensive efficiency, combined with their three-point shooting and ability to draw fouls, gives them a large edge over Clemson. Those metrics have me laying the points. Take Baylor -4.5.