CBB Total Pick: Bearcats vs. Mountaineers 1/31/24

Cincinnati Bearcats (14-6 SU, 10-10 ATS) vs. West Virginia Mountaineers (7-13 SU, 8-12 ATS)

When: Wednesday, January 31st, 7:00 PM (ET)

Where: WVU Coliseum, WV, Morgantown

TV: ESPN+

Point Spread: CIN -4.5/WVU +4.5 (Double your bankroll before the Super Bowl by grabbing a sportsbook bonus!)

Total: 144.5

Money Line: Cinci-206/W VA +167

Notable Injuries

Bearcats

• CJ Fredrick (Out) Hamstring
• Viktor Lakhin (Questionable) Illness

Mountaineers

Recent Form

Through 20 games, Cincinnati has an overall record of 14-6, including a 3-4 mark in Big 12 play. On the road, the Bearcats are 2-4 this season, compared to a 12-2 record at home.

As the favorite, Cincinnati has gone 13-3, and they come into this game against West Virginia as 4.5-point favorites. The Bearcats’ average scoring margin on the road is -1.8, and they have lost two straight games away from home.

So far this season, the over/under record for Cincinnati games is 10-10. Currently, the average scoring total in their games is 144.1 points, which is lower than today’s line of 144.5. Over their last three games, the average scoring total is just 133 points.

As the favorite this season, Cincinnati has gone 7-9 vs. the spread. Over their last 10 games as the favorite, the Bearcats are 4-6 vs. the spread. On the road this year, Cincinnati is 3-3 vs. the spread and they are 3-0 vs. the spread in their last 3 road games.

West Virginia enters today’s game against Cincinnati as a 4.5-point underdog. So far this season, the Mountaineers have gone 2-10 when they are the underdog, and they have a 7-8 record at home.

Over their last 10 games at home, West Virginia has gone just 4-6, and they are coming off a 70-66 loss to Oklahoma State. On the season, they are 7-13 overall and have lost their last two games.

West Virginia’s over/under record this season is 10-10 and the average scoring in their games is 140.8 points. Today’s over/under line of 144.5 is higher than the average over/under line in their games (140.4). Over their last three games, the OU record is 1-2, and the average scoring in those games is 147 points.

West Virginia’s ATS record for the season is currently 8-12, but they have gone 4-1 vs. the spread in their last five home games. As the underdog this year, the Mountaineers are 4-8 vs. the spread.

Analysis

Compared to their season average of 77.7 points per game, Cincinnati struggled in their previous game. Against UCF, the Bearcats scored 68 points while finishing with a field goal percentage of 46.2%. Currently leading the team in scoring is Viktor Lakhin who comes into today’s matchup averaging 12.7. Daniel Skillings also heads into the game with a PPG average of 11.9.

Coming into today’s game, the Cincinnati defense is giving up an average of 66.4 points per contest. The Cincinnati defense is coming off a game in which they gave up a total of 57 points and allowed UCF to connect on 3 threes.

The Mountaineers’ offense finished with 66 points in their previous game, mirroring their current average of 68.2 points per contest. The team’s scoring leader is Quinn Slazinski, who holds an average of 13.7 as they head into today’s matchup. Additionally, Raequan Battle is averaging 16.3 points per game this season.

So far, the Mountaineers’ defense is ranked 184th in the country at 72.6 points per contest. Against Oklahoma State in their most recent game, the West Virginia defense gave up a total of 70 points while allowing Oklahoma State to hit 40% of their shots.

Betting Trends

• In their last five road games, Cincinnati has averaged 69 points per game while allowing 72. The team’s record in this stretch was 1-4 while going 3-2.
• In their last three games at home, the Mountaineers have a straight up record of 0-3 while going 0-3 vs. the spread. The team averaged 62 points per game in this stretch.
• In their last ten games as the betting underdog, the Mountaineers have a straight up record of 2-8 and an ATS mark of 3-7.
• Across their last five matchups as the betting favorite, the Bearcats have an overall record of 3-2 while going 2-3 against the spread.

Crew’s Pick To Cover The Spread

WVU has put over 70 points on the board in just two of their last seven matches and face a decent Cincy defense. Defensively the Mountaineers have been playing well over their L5 and especially in the last two holding Oklahoma State to a FG% of 40.4, UCF to 37.3%. Take the Under 145.