CBB Picks: Minnesota vs. Purdue 2/15/24

Minnesota Golden Gophers (15-8 SU, 18-4-1 ATS) vs. Purdue Boilermakers (22-2 SU, 14-8-2 ATS)

When: Thursday, February 15th, 8:30 PM (ET)

Where: Mackey Arena, IN, West Lafayette

TV: BTN

Point Spread: MINNST +16.5/PUR -16.5

Total: 147.5

Money Line: Minnesota Golden Gophers +993/-2268

Notable Injuries

Golden Gophers

• Dawson Garcia (Questionable) Lower Body
• Erick Reader (Out) Undisclosed

Boilermakers

Recent Form

Minnesota heads to Purdue as 16.5-point underdogs. The Golden Gophers are 15-8 overall and 6-6 in Big Ten play. So far, they are 9-2 in non-conference games, compared to 6-6 in the Big Ten.

Minnesota has been much better at home this season, going 13-3 compared to 2-5 on the road. Their average scoring margin at home is +13.5 compared to -6.3 on the road. They come into this game having lost their last game, a 90-85 defeat at the hands of Iowa.

This season, Minnesota’s over/under record is 12-11, and the average scoring total in their games is 144.7 points. Today’s over/under line of 147.5 is higher than the average over/under line in their games this season (143.8). Over their last three games, they have finished with an average of 143 points.

As the underdog this season, Minnesota has been excellent vs. the spread, going 9-3. Over their last 10 games as the underdog, the Golden Gophers have gone 9-1 vs. the spread. On the road, Minnesota has a 5-2 ATS mark this year and is 18-4-1 ATS overall. Over their last 10 road games, the Golden Gophers have gone 6-4 vs. the spread.

After winning their last game against Indiana by a score of 79-59, Purdue comes into this game with a record of 22-2. Their record at home this season is a perfect 15-0, and they have won their last 15 games at home.

So far, Purdue has been the favorite in 23 of their 24 games, and they have gone 21-2 in those games. They have also won their last eight games and have gone 11-2 in Big Ten play.

Today’s over/under line of 147.5 is lower than the average over/under line in Purdue’s games this season (148.2). Currently, their over/under record is 15-8-1. In their last three games, the average scoring total is 160 points, and their OU record over their last 10 games is 6-3-1.

As the favorite, Purdue has gone 13-8-2 against the spread this season and they are 9-5-1 vs. the spread at home. Over their last 10 games as the favorite, the Boilermakers have a 5-5 ATS record.

Analysis

Minnesota is coming off a good offensive performance, putting up 85 points vs. Iowa. This figure is more than their season average of 76.1 points per game. The Minnesota offense has been looking to get up shots from outside so far this season, averaging 23 three-point attempts per contest. Overall, they have connected on 34% of their looks from outside this season.

At present, the Golden Gophers’ defense is nationally ranked 88th, allowing 68.6 points per game. In their previous game vs. Iowa, the Hawkeyes finished with a field goal percentage of 47% and a total of 90 points vs. Minnesota.

Against Indiana, the Purdue had a tough time putting up points compared to their season average of 85.1 points per game. They scored 79 points and posted a field goal percentage of 42.4% in the game. Currently leading the team in scoring is Zach Edey who comes into today’s matchup averaging 23.2. Lance Jones also heads into the game with a PPG average of 12.8.

So far, the Boilermakers’ defense is ranked 103rd in the country at 69.5 points per contest. In their previous game vs. Indiana, the Hoosiers finished with a field goal percentage of 42% and a total of 59 points vs. Purdue.

Betting Trends

• Across their last five road contests, Minnesota has a 4-1 record vs the spread. Their overall mark in these games was 2-3, while averaging 73 points per game.
• Across their last three home contests, Purdue has been good against the spread posting a mark of 2-1. Their overall mark in these games was 3-0, while averaging 75 points per game.
• In their last ten games as the betting underdog, the Golden Gophers have a straight up record of 5-5 and an ATS mark of 9-1.
• Purdue has done well both straight up and vs the spread when favored to win the game, going 5-0 SU and 5-0 ATS in their last five games.

Rich Crew’s Total Pick

Take the Over 146.5