CBB Picks: Duke vs. VT Analysis & Predictions 2/29/24

Duke Blue Devils (15-4 SU, 8-10 ATS) vs. Virginia Tech Hokies (13-7 SU, 9-9-2 ATS)

When: Monday, January 29th, 7:00 PM (ET)

Where: Cassell Coliseum, VA, Blacksburg

TV: ESPN

Point Spread: DUKE -3.5/VTECH +3.5

Total: 146.5

Money Line: Duke Blue Devils -176/+144

Notable Injuries

Blue Devils

• Christian Reeves (Out) Ankle
• Jaden Schutt (Out) Redshirt

Hokies

• Mekhi Long (Questionable) Knee

Recent Form

Through 19 games, Duke has a record of 15-4, including a 5-2 mark in Atlantic Coast Conference play. On the road, the Blue Devils are 3-2 this season, and they have won their last two games away from home.

With a scoring margin of +4.4 points per game on the road, Duke is currently favored by 3.5 points against Virginia Tech. The Blue Devils have been the favorite in 18 of their 19 games this season, going 14-4 in those contests.

Today’s over/under line of 146.5 is in line with the average over/under line in Duke’s games this season (146.4). So far, 10 of their games have finished with more points than today’s line. Over their last three games, the over/under record is 2-1.

As the favorite, Duke has an ATS record of 8-10 this season. Their ATS mark is 1-4 on the road and 7-6 at home. Over their last 10 games as the favorite, the Blue Devils are 5-5 vs. the spread.

Virginia Tech enters this game as a 3.5-point underdog, and they are 3-4 this season when tabbed as the underdog. The Hokies are 12-2 at home this season, and they have won their last two games at home.

Over their last 10 games at home, Virginia Tech is 8-2, and they are coming off a 91-67 win over Georgia Tech. Overall, the Hokies have won three straight games to improve their record to 13-7.

On the season, the over/under record for Virginia Tech games is 9-11, and today’s line of 146.5 is similar to the average over/under line in their games this year (143.3). Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 155 points, and their OU record over their last 10 games is 5-5.

As the underdog, Virginia Tech’s ATS record this season is 3-4. Overall, the Hokies have an ATS mark of 9-9-2. At home, their ATS record is 8-4-2, but over their last three games at home, they are 1-1-1 vs. the spread.

Analysis

The Duke offense is coming off a game in which they scored 72 points vs. Clemson. Overall their field goal percentage was 41.2% while connecting on 9 threes. The team’s top scorer is Kyle Filipowski, who enters today’s matchup with an average of 17.7, while Jeremy Roach also carries a PPG average of 13.8 into the game.

In the current season, the Duke defense has excelled, sitting 76th in the nation by allowing 67.2 points per game. In terms of field goal percentage allowed, Duke’s defense has allowed opponents to shoot 43.3% from the field, including a three-point shooting percentage allowed of 34.0% this season.

In their latest game, Virginia Tech offense put up 91 points against Georgia Tech. They recorded an overall field goal percentage of 55.2% and made 12 threes. The top scorer for the Hokies was Lynn Kidd with 18 points, while Mylyjael Poteat also chipped in with 18 points.

The Hokies’ defense is presently ranked 90th nationally, allowing an average of 68.2 points per contest. In their most recent game, the Virginia Tech defense struggled to defend the three-point line, as Georgia Tech knocked down 12 three-pointers on their way to 67 points.

Betting Trends

• In their last three games away from home, the Blue Devils have a straight up record of 3-0 while going 0-2 vs the spread. The team’s offense averaged 75 points per game in these contests.
• Across their five previous home games, Virginia Tech has an ATS mark of 1-4. Their straight up record in these matchups was 1-4 while averaging 67 points per game.
• In their last five games as the betting underdog, the Hokies have a straight up record of 2-3 and an ATS mark of 2-3.
• Looking back on the team’s last ten games as the favorite, the Blue Devils have a straight up record of 9-1. Their record vs the spread in these games was 5-5.

Rich’s Spread Pick

I’m going with the home team here. The Hokies have fared well against the Blue Devils, winning and getting the spread win in three of the last five meetings and four of the past five as the home team. They come in sharp on a three -game run and can give the visitor all they can handle tonight. Take VT +3.5