CBB Picks: Buffalo Bulls vs. Akron Zips Betting Prediction – Jan 12

Buffalo Bulls (2-13 SU, 5-9 ATS) vs. Akron Zips (11-4 SU, 7-6 ATS)

When: Friday, January 12th, 7:00 PM (ET)

Where: James A. Rhodes Arena, OH, Akron

TV: CBSS

Point Spread: BUF +17/AKRON -17

Total: 142.5

Money Line: Buff +1085/Akr -2877

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Notable Injuries

Bulls

• James Graham III (Out) Eligibility

Zips

Recent Form

Buffalo has struggled mightily this season, sitting at just 2-13 overall. They have lost two straight games, and their road record is 1-4. The Bulls have gone 1-9 as the underdog this season, and they are currently riding a nine-game losing streak at home.

Last game, Buffalo fell to Miami (OH) by a score of 86-65. Over their last 10 road games, the Bulls have gone just 2-8, and their average scoring margin on the road this season is -6.0 points per game.

This season, the over/under record for Buffalo is 6-8 and today’s line of 142.5 is lower than their average over/under line of 146.3. So far, 8 of their games have finished with more points than today’s line. Across their last three games, the over/under record is 2-1 with an average of 149 points compared to their season average of 146.1 points per game.

Buffalo’s ATS record this season is just 5-9, but they have been much better vs. the spread on the road, going 5-0. Over their last 10 games as the underdog, the Bulls are 5-5.

At home, Akron has been dominant this season with a 4-1 record and an average scoring margin of +10.0 points per game. They have won their last three games and are 9-1 in their last 10 home games.

Overall, the Zips are 11-4, including an 8-0 mark when they are favored. They are currently on a three-game winning streak and have a perfect 3-0 record in Mid-American Conference action.

This season, the over/under record for Akron games is 7-6 and today’s line of 142.5 is higher than the average over/under line in their games (140.6). So far, 8 of their games have had lower over/under lines than today’s OU line. Over their last five games, the average scoring total is 147 points and during their last three games, the over/under record is 2-1.

As the favorite this season, Akron has gone 4-4 vs. the spread. At home, the Zips have an ATS mark of 3-2 this year and they are 5-5 in their last 10 games as the favorite. Over their last three home games, Akron is 1-1 vs. the spread.

Analysis

In their most recent game, the Bulls’ offense tallied 65 points, consistent with their ongoing season average of 68.3 points per game. The top scorer for the Bulls was Shawn Fulcher with 20 points, while Ryan Sabol also chipped in with 14 points.

As they prepare for the upcoming game, Buffalo is focused on shoring up their defense, as they are currently allowing an average of 79.5 points per game (308th). The Buffalo defense is coming off a game in which they gave up a total of 86 points and allowed Miami (OH) to connect on seven threes.

The Akron offense is coming off a game where they scored 80 points against Ball State. They posted a field goal percentage of 43.3% and connected on ten threes. Enrique Freeman is the current leading scorer for the team, with an average of 18.1 as they approach today’s matchup. In addition, Greg Tribble brings a PPG average of 9.6 into the game.

This season, the Akron defense has been impressive, holding the 63rd position in the country while permitting an average of 66.1 points per contest. In their most recent game, the Akron defense struggled to defend the three-point line, as Ball State knocked down ten three-pointers on their way to 76 points.

Betting Trends

• In their last five road games, Buffalo has averaged 65 points per game while allowing 71. The team’s record in this stretch was 1-4 while going 5-0.
• When looking at their past three matchups at home, Akron has an ATS record of 2-1 while averaging 71 per game. The team went 2-1 overall in these games.
• Through their last three games as the betting underdog, the Bulls have a strong record vs the spread going 2-1. Their straight-up mark in these contests is 1-2.
• In their last ten games as the betting favorite, the Zips have a straight-up record of 10-0 and an ATS mark of 5-5.

Rich Crew’s O/U Pick

I think that the Zips probably cover here, but I’d never lay that much. I think the total is the best way to play this. Akron doesn’t play ultra-fast, and Buffalo ranks 310th in true shooting percentage (99.2%). I have this game in the mid-130s. Take the Under 142.5.