CBB Free Picks: Wolverines vs. Boilermakers Jan 23/24

Michigan Wolverines (7-11 SU, 5-12 ATS) vs. Purdue Boilermakers (17-2 SU, 11-6-2 ATS)

When: Tuesday, January 23rd, 9:00 PM (ET)

Where: Mackey Arena, IN, West Lafayette

TV: PEAC

Point Spread: MICH +17/PUR -17

Total: 152.5

Money Line: Michigan Wolverines +1140/-2871

Notable Injuries

Wolverines

• Tray Jackson (Questionable) Undisclosed
• Cooper Smith (Out) Undisclosed
• Harrison Hochberg (Out) Undisclosed

Boilermakers

Recent Form

Michigan heads into their matchup against Purdue as a 17-point underdog. So far this season, the Wolverines have a record of 7-11 and are 2-5 in Big Ten play. On the road, they are 2-3 compared to a 4-8 record at home.

Over their last ten games, Michigan has gone just 3-7 on the road, and they have lost their last two games away from home. In their most recent game, the Wolverines fell to Illinois by a score of 88-73.

This season, the over/under record for Michigan games is 11-6, and today’s line of 152.5 is higher than the average over/under line in their games (149.8). So far, 10 of their games have finished with more points than today’s line. Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 139 points, and their OU record over their last 10 games is 6-4.

As the underdog, Michigan has struggled against the spread this season, going just 2-5. Their overall ATS mark is 5-12 and they are 2-3 vs. the spread on the road. Over their last three games as the underdog, the Wolverines are 0-3.

After winning their last game, 84-70 against Iowa, Purdue is now 17-2 on the season and 6-2 in Big Ten play. The Boilermakers have won three straight games and have yet to lose at home this season, going 12-0.

On the year, Purdue has been favored in 18 of their 19 games, going 16-2 in those contests. For the season, they have an average scoring margin of +21.3 points per game at home.

So far this season, the over/under record for Purdue games is 13-6 and today’s line of 152.5 is higher than the average OU line in their games (148.9). Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 159 points and their OU record over their last 10 games is 7-3.

As the favorite this season, Purdue has gone 10-6-2 vs. the spread. At home, their ATS mark is 7-4-1. Over their last 10 games as the favorite, the Boilermakers are 6-4 ATS.

Analysis

Coming off their recent game, the Michigan offense tallied 73 points in a matchup against Illinois. Their field goal percentage for the game was 47.6%, and they made 3 threes. Offensively, the Wolverines hold a season-long field goal percentage of 47%, placing them 85th in the national rankings. When it comes to three-pointers, they are ranked 70th in terms of percentage and 63rd in three-pointers made.

Looking at the Michigan defense, they will be looking for a better performance, considering they are currently conceding 77.6 points per game (273rd). Michigan’s three-point defense is currently 130th in the country at 7.2 made threes per game. In terms of overall field goal percentage, opponets have hit 44.5% of their shots vs. Michigan.

Purdue’s offense is coming off a strong performance, scoring 84 points against Iowa. They had an overall field goal percentage of 44.8% and made 15/21 free throws. Currently leading the team in scoring is Zach Edey who comes into today’s matchup averaging 23.3. Lance Jones also heads into the game with a PPG average of 11.9.

Coming into today’s game, the Purdue defense is giving up an average of 69.4 points per contest. Against Iowa in their most recent game, the Purdue defense gave up a total of 70 points while allowing Iowa to hit 45% of their shots.

Betting Trends

• Through their last five road games, Michigan has an ATS record of just 2-3. However, their overall record was 2-3 while averaging 78 points per game.
• When looking at their past ten home matchups, Purdue has an ATS record of 4-5-1 while averaging 72 per game. The team went 6-4 overall in these games.
• Going back to their last ten games as the underdog, the Wolverines have a straight up record of 2-8. But, their mark vs the spread was just 5-5.
• Across their last five matchups as the betting favorite, the Boilermakers have an overall record of 4-1 while going 2-3 against the spread.

Crew’s Pick To Cover The Spread

I think the Wolverines without the ball movement from Dug McDaniel will have a difficult time putting up points on the board. Purdue may step off the gas in the second half which has been a common tactic when up large at the half. Take the Under 151.5