CBB Best Bet: Toledo vs. CMU Betting Preview & Pick

Toledo Rockets (11-6 SU, 8-9 ATS) vs. Central Michigan Chippewas (8-9 SU, 7-9 ATS)

When: Friday, January 19th, 7:00 PM (ET)

Where: McGuirk Arena, MI, Mount Pleasant

TV: CBSS

Point Spread: TOLEDO -7.5/CMICH +7.5

Total: 149

Money Line: Toledo Rockets -335/+259

Notable Injuries

Rockets

Chippewas

Recent Form

So far this season, Toledo has been the favorite in nine of its 17 games, going 7-2 in those games. The Rockets are currently riding a five-game win streak, and their record in Mid-American Conference play is a perfect 5-0.

On the road, Toledo is 4-2, and its average scoring margin away from home is +1.5 points per game. The Rockets have won two straight road games, and over their last 10 road games, they have gone 7-3.

On the season, the over/under record in Toledo games sits at 9-8, and today’s line of 149 is lower than the average scoring output in their games (156.2). Over their last three games, the over/under record is 1-2, with an average scoring total of 152 points.

Overall, Toledo’s ATS record this season is 8-9. On the road, they have gone 4-2 vs. the spread. Over their last 10 road games, the Rockets have a mark of 6-4 ATS. However, when favored this year, Toledo has gone just 3-6 vs. the spread. In their last 10 games as the favorite, their ATS record is 3-7.

Central Michigan has been better at home this season, going 3-2 compared to 4-7 on the road. They have been the underdog in 11 of their 17 games, going 4-7 in those games. Their average scoring margin at home is +1.8 compared to -13.5 on the road.

Over their last ten games at home, the Chippewas have gone 4-6. In their most recent game, they lost to Ohio by a score of 73-61.

So far this season, Central Michigan’s over/under record is 6-9-1. The average over/under line in their games is 141.8 and their games have averaged 139.7 points. Today’s over/under line of 149 is higher than the average scoring total in their games this season. In their last three games, the over/under record is 1-2 with an average scoring total of 138 points.

As the underdog, Central Michigan has gone 4-7 against the spread this season and they are 7-9 overall. At home, they have an ATS mark of 3-2 and they have gone 2-1 ATS in their last three home games. Over their last 10 games as the underdog, the Chippewas have gone 4-6 vs. the spread.

Analysis

In their most recent game, the Rockets’ offense tallied 77 points, consistent with their ongoing season average of 79.1 points per game. Ra’Heim Moss is the current leading scorer for the team, with an average of 16.4 as they approach today’s matchup. In addition, Dante Maddox Jr. brings a PPG average of 15.5 into the game.

Coming into today’s game, the Toledo defense is giving up an average of 77.2 points per contest. On average, opposing teams are hitting 7.9 threes per game vs. Central Michigan. This has come on a three-point shooting percentage of 35.3%.

In contrast to their season average of 66.9 points per game, the Central Michigan had a below average performance. They scored 61 points against Ohio and had a field goal percentage of 40.4%. The top scorer for the Chippewas was Anthony Pritchard with 15 points, while Aiden Rubio also added 14 to the scoreboard.

At this time, the Chippewas’ defense is positioned 204th in the country, permitting 73.7 points per game. So far, the Central Michigan defense is giving up an average of 9.2 offensive rebounds per game and are turning teams over 12.2 times per game (588th).

Betting Trends

• Through their last ten road games, Toledo has an ATS record of just 6-4. However, their overall record was 7-3 while averaging 83 points per game.
• Through their last five home games, Central Michigan has an ATS record of just 2-3. However, their overall record was 2-3 while averaging 62 points per game.
• Central Michigan has done well both straight up and vs the spread when favored to win the game, going 3-2 SU and 3-2 ATS in their last five games.
• Over the team’s last three games as the favorite, the Rockets struggled vs the spread going just 0-3. However, they still had a straight up mark of 3-0.

Crew’s Pick To Cover The Spread

The Rockets have won the last five in this series SU and three of the five against the spread. They’ve also won their past five games overall but cashed in just two of the contests. They appear to be overvalued by the oddsmaker with just two spread wins in two of their last eight. The Chippewas have a positive record in conference (3-2) and have won three of their past five. They did lose their latest falling to Ohio by 12 on the road, but I think the location and probably some over-confidence played a part coming off a 15 point beatdown of Kent State prior to the Bobcats game. CMU is now back at home catching 7.5 points and are my play.