CBB Best Bet: Michigan vs. Northwestern 2/22/24

Michigan Wolverines (8-18 SU, 6-19 ATS) vs. Northwestern Wildcats (18-8 SU, 13-11-2 ATS)

When: Thursday, February 22nd, 9:00 PM (ET)

Where: Welsh-Ryan Arena, IL, Evanston

TV: FS1

Point Spread: Mich +12/NW -12

Total: 140

Money Line: Big Blue +513/Cats -745

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Notable Injuries

Wolverines

• No Injuries Reported

Wildcats

• No Injuries Reported

Recent Form

Michigan has not been good on the road this season, as they have gone just 2-7 away from home. For the year, they are 8-18 overall, including a 3-12 mark in Big Ten games. Currently, they are on a three-game losing streak and have lost six straight games on the road.

For the season, Michigan has been the underdog in 13 of their 26 games, going just 3-10 in those games. Their average scoring margin on the road this season is -10.0 points per game, and they are coming off a 73-63 loss to Michigan State.

Michigan’s over/under record this season is 14-11 and today’s line of 140 is lower than the average over/under line in their games (149.4). So far, 17 of their games have finished with more points than today’s line. Over their last three games, their over/under record is 1-2 and the average scoring total in those games is 146 points.

As the underdog this season, Michigan has gone just 3-10 vs. the spread. Their road ATS record is currently 2-7 and they are just 0-3 vs. the spread in their last 3 road games. Over their last 10 games as the underdog, the Wolverines have gone just 2-8 vs. the spread.

Northwestern will look to extend their home win streak to nine games when they take on Michigan. So far this season, the Wildcats have gone 15-1 at home, compared to just 3-7 on the road. Over their last 10 games at home, they have gone 9-1.

On the season, Northwestern has been favored in 16 of their 26 games, going 14-2 in those contests. Their average scoring margin at home is +11.3, compared to -5.6 on the road. In their last game, they defeated Indiana by a score of 76-72.

Today’s over/under line of 140 is higher than the average over/under line in Northwestern’s games this season (137.2). So far, 11 of their games have finished with more points than today’s line. Over their last three games, the over/under record is 1-2 and in their last five games, the over/under record is 3-2.

As the favorite this season, Northwestern has gone 7-7-2 vs. the spread. Over their last 10 games as the favorite, the Wildcats are 4-5-1 ATS. At home this year, Northwestern has an ATS mark of 9-6-1. In their last three home games, the Wildcats are 2-1 ATS.

Analysis

The Michigan offense, in their latest game, managed to score just 63 points versus Michigan State. During the game, they attempted 20 three-point shots and had a field goal percentage of 45.3%. The team’s top scorer is Olivier Nkamhoua, who comes into today’s matchup with an average of 14.8, while Dug McDaniel also maintains a PPG average of 16.6 leading up to the game.

So far, the Wolverines’ defense is ranked 310th in the country at 78.9 points per contest. Against Michigan State, the Wolverines’ defense gave up 73 points and did a good job not fouling. For the game, Michigan State only made 8 free-throws.

The Wildcats’ offense finished with 76 points in their previous game, mirroring their current average of 74.4 points per contest. Currently leading the team in scoring is Boo Buie who comes into today’s matchup averaging 19. Brooks Barnhizer also heads into the game with a PPG average of 14.1.

So far, the Wildcats’ defense is ranked 112nd in the country at 69.6 points per contest. Against Indiana in their most recent game, the Northwestern defense gave up a total of 72 points while allowing Indiana to hit 50% of their shots.

Betting Trends

• Through their last three road games, Michigan has an ATS record of just 0-3. However, their overall record was 0-3 while averaging 63 points per game.
• In their last three home games, Northwestern has averaged 67 points per game while allowing 70. The team’s record in this stretch was 1-2 while going 2-1.
• Going back to their last three games as the underdog, the Wolverines have a straight up record of 0-3. But, their mark vs the spread was just 0-3.
• As the betting favorite, the Wildcats have an ATS mark of just 4-5-1 in their last ten games. Northwestern posted a straight up mark of 8-2 in these matchups.

Rich Crew’s Point Spread Pick

This is a huge spread and one I don’t like laying, but with the loss of Olivier Nkamhoua and the Wolverines tendency to get blown out in Big Ten road games losing their last four by 19 or more, this seems like the right way side to bet. Take Northwestern -12.5.

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