Butler vs. Providence Predictions: Joe’s CBB Best Bet & Point Spread Analysis

Butler Bulldogs (13-18 SU, 14-16-1 ATS) vs. Providence Friars (12-19 SU, 14-17 ATS)

When: Wednesday, March 12th, 4:00 PM (ET)

Where: Madison Square Garden, NY, New York

TV: PEAC

Point Spread: BUTL -1.5/PROV +1.5

Total: 147.5

Money Line: Butler Bulldogs -124/+102

Notable Injuries

Bulldogs

• Jamie Kaiser Jr. (Out) Redshirt

Friars

• Jabri Abdur-Rahim (Out) Knee
• Bryce Hopkins (Out) Knee

Recent Form

Butler Bulldogs Recent Game/Games

Butler’s season record dropped to 13-18 after an 87-74 loss to Creighton on Saturday. The Bulldogs, who were +11 point underdogs, failed to cover the spread in the road game.

Butler trailed 52-44 at halftime and managed just 30 points in the 2nd half while allowing 35. The total points for the game were 161, surpassing the O/U line of 151.5.

Providence Friars Recent Game/Games

The Friars dropped to 12-19 on the season after a 76-68 road loss to Xavier on Saturday. Providence was a +11.5 point underdog going into the game, but they managed to keep it closer than expected.

Providence trailed 36-32 at halftime, and both teams scored more in the 2nd half, with the Friars putting up 36 points and allowing 40. The game’s total points of 144 fell short of the 149.5 O/U line.

Analysis

Butler put up 74 points in their last game, shooting 44.1% from the field and 40.9% from beyond the arc. Their effective field goal percentage was 50%, and they hit 83.3% of their free throws, going 5-for-6 from the line. The Bulldogs grabbed eight offensive rebounds and dished out 11 assists.

Ryan Kalkbrenner led the way with 27 points and 15 rebounds, shooting 76.5% from the field. Steven Ashworth added 23 points and 11 assists, hitting 7 of 15 threes at a 46.7% clip. Jackson McAndrew also contributed, making 4 of 6 threes and finishing with 14 points.

Butler’s defense struggled in their last game, giving up 87 points on 52% shooting from the field. They allowed 34 made field goals on 65 attempts.

Inside the arc, the Bulldogs gave up 18/28 shooting (64%), while from three-point range, they allowed 16/37 (43%). The opposing team also grabbed 13 offensive rebounds.

Providence’s offense put up 68 points in their latest game, shooting 47.3% from the field and hitting 50% from beyond the arc, making 12 of 24 three-point attempts. Their effective field goal percentage was 58.2%, though they struggled at the free-throw line, converting just 4 of 11 attempts (36.4%).

Bensley Joseph led the way with 27 points, hitting 7 of 10 threes, while Zach Freemantle added 25 points and eight rebounds, shooting 68.8% overall. The Friars finished with 19 assists, with Ryan Conwell contributing five assists and 21 points.

Providence’s defense gave up 76 points in their last game, with the opposing team shooting 44% from the field. They allowed 26 made field goals on 58 attempts.

From two-point range, the other team shot 50%, hitting 19 of 38 shots. They also connected on 7 of 20 three-pointers, a 35% clip. Providence sent them to the line 21 times, where they made 17 free throws, shooting 81%.

Betting Trends

• Through their last three road contests, the Bulldogs offense has averaged 76 points per game while allowing an average of 79. Butler posted an overall record of 1-2 while going 1-2 ATS.
• Across their last five home contests, Providence has a 3-2 record vs the spread. Their overall mark in these games was 0-5, while averaging 67 points per game.
• Going back to their previous five games as the underdog, Providence has an ATS mark of 2-3 while going 1-4 straight up.
• As the betting favorite, the Bulldogs have an ATS record of 2-1 in their last three games. In these matchups, their straight-up record was 3-0.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

Even though Butler has shot a higher percentage from downtown this season, Providence averages more made threes per game due to Butler’s lack of volume. And even with Butler getting less threes up on average, they don’t have much of an edge on two-point efficiency over Providence. I think the Friars’ offensive advantage plays out with a win in this Big East tournament matchup.