Bowling Green Falcons vs. Western Michigan Broncos Pick | CBB March 5

Bowling Green Falcons (17-12 SU, 12-14 ATS) vs. Western Michigan Broncos (11-18 SU, 15-12 ATS)

When: Tuesday, March 5th, 7:00 PM (ET)

Where: University Arena (MI), MI, Kalamazoo

TV: ESPN+

Point Spread: BOWLGR -1.5/WMICH +1.5

Total: 145

Money Line: Bowling Green Falcons -125/+103

Notable Injuries

Falcons

Broncos

Recent Form

After losing their last two games, Bowling Green will look to get back on track as they take on Western Michigan. The Falcons have gone 17-12 overall, including an 8-7 record in the Mid-American Conference.

As the favorite, Bowling Green has gone 10-5 this season. On the road, they are 4-6 compared to 11-5 at home. So far, they have gone 9-5 in non-conference games compared to 8-7 in conference games.

This season, the over/under record for Bowling Green games is 15-11 and today’s line of 145 is lower than the average over/under line of 147.9 in their games. So far, 17 of their games have finished with more points than today’s line. In their last three games, the over/under record is 0-3, and the average scoring total in those games is 130 points.

As the favorite this season, Bowling Green has gone 6-9 vs. the spread. Over their last 10 games as the favorite, the Falcons have a mark of 3-7 ATS. On the road this year, Bowling Green has an ATS record of 4-6, and their ATS mark over their last 10 road games is 4-5-1.

Western Michigan has been much better at home this season, going 7-6 compared to 2-12 on the road. They have a two-game winning streak at home and have gone 6-4 in their last 10 games at home.

On the season, Western Michigan has been the underdog in 20 of their 29 games, going 6-14 in those games. Their average scoring margin at home this season is +1.8 points per game.

Western Michigan’s over/under record this season is 12-15, and today’s line of 145 is higher than the average over/under line in their games (144.1). So far, 15 of their games have finished with more points than today’s line. Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 150 points, and their over/under record during this stretch is 2-1.

As the underdog, Western Michigan has gone 12-8 vs. the spread this season. At home, their ATS mark is 8-5. Over their last 10 games as the underdog, the Broncos are 7-3 vs. the spread. In their last three home games, Western Michigan has gone 2-1 ATS.

Analysis

Bowling Green offense recently wrapped up a game with a total of 59 points against Ohio. In that game, they made 3/11 three-point attempts and achieved a field goal percentage of 41.3%. One area that the Bowling Green offense has been good this season is getting to the line. Currently, they are 47th in free-throw attempts per contest. Overall, they have a field goal percentage of 43%.

On defense, Bowling Green is currently around the NCAA average in points allowed, giving up an average of 71.5 points per game. The Bowling Green defense is coming off a game in which they gave up a total of 66 points and allowed Ohio to connect on 8 threes.

Coming off their recent game, the Western Michigan offense tallied 67 points in a matchup against Eastern Michigan. Their field goal percentage for the game was 41.4%, and they made 13 threes. The Western Michigan offense has been looking to get up shots from outside so far this season, averaging 23.3 three-point attempts per contest. Overall, they have connected on 34% of their looks from outside this season.

The Broncos’ defense is presently ranked 230th nationally, allowing an average of 74.4 points per contest. So far, the Western Michigan defense is giving up an average of 9.8 offensive rebounds per game and are turning teams over 12.8 times per game (669th).

Betting Trends

• Through their last five road contests, the Falcons offense has averaged 64 points per game while allowing an average of 71. Bowling Green posted an overall record of 1-4 while going 2-2-1 ATS.
• Although Western Michigan has a straight up record of 1-4 in their last five home games, they have not held up as well vs the spread going 2-3. The team averaged 60 points per game in these games.
• The Broncos have played well in their last three games as the betting underdog, going 2-1 straight up and 2-1 against the spread.
• Looking back on the team’s last ten games as the favorite, the Falcons have a straight up record of 6-4. Their record vs the spread in these games was 3-7.

Rich Crew’s Pick To Cover The Spread

It’s kind of a fishy line based on recent play but I’ve been getting killed on totals lately so a spread pick is the way I’m going here. ‘Take WMU +1.5 points.