Bowling Green Falcons vs. Miami (OH) RedHawks Betting Preview

Bowling Green Falcons (12-4 SU, 7-7 ATS) vs. Miami (OH) RedHawks (8-8 SU, 9-5 ATS)

When: Tuesday, January 16th, 7:00 PM (ET)

Where: Millett Hall, OH, Oxford

TV: ESPN+

Point Spread: BOWLGR -1/MIAOH +1

Total: 144.5

Money Line: Bowling Green Falcons -116/-106

Notable Injuries

Falcons

RedHawks

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After winning their last game against Northern Illinois, Bowling Green has now won two straight games, bringing their overall record to 12-4. They have been especially strong at home, going 8-2 compared to 2-2 on the road.

So far this season, Bowling Green has been favored in nine of their 16 games, going 8-1 in those contests. For the year, they are 3-1 in Mid-American Conference play and 9-3 outside of the conference.

So far this season, the over/under record for Bowling Green games is 8-6. Today’s over/under line of 144.5 is lower than the average over/under line in their games this year (147). In their last three games, the over/under record is 3-0, and the average scoring total in those games is 154 points.

Against the spread, Bowling Green has a .500 record this season at 7-7. On the road, their ATS mark is just 1-3, and over their last 10 road games, the Falcons are just 2-8 vs. the spread. As the favorite, BGSU’s ATS record is 6-4 this season.

Miami (OH) enters tonight’s game with an 8-8 overall record, including a 4-2 mark at home. They come in as the underdog, and they are 3-6 in games where they are not favored. So far, they have gone 2-2 in Mid-American Conference play.

In their last game, the RedHawks defeated Eastern Michigan by a score of 71-54. Over their last ten home games, they have gone 8-2, and they are 4-1 in their last five.

So far this season, the over/under record for Miami (OH) games is 8-5-1. The average scoring total in their games this year is 143.5 points compared to an average over/under line of 143.8, so their games have been right in line with the market. Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 135 points.

As the underdog, Miami (OH) has been solid vs. the spread this season, going 6-3. Their overall ATS mark is 9-5, and they are 4-2 vs. the spread at home this year. Over their last 10 games as the underdog, the RedHawks are 6-4 vs. the spread.

Analysis

Bowling Green’s offense is coming off a strong performance, scoring 83 points against Northern Illinois. They had an overall field goal percentage of 46.7% and made 24/33 free throws. Currently leading the team in scoring is Marcus Hill who comes into today’s matchup averaging 19.9. Rashaun Agee also heads into the game with a PPG average of 12.

The Falcons’ defense is presently ranked 103rd nationally, allowing an average of 69.0 points per contest. In their previous game vs. Northern Illinois, the Huskies finished with a field goal percentage of 42% and a total of 72 points vs. Bowling Green.

The Miami (OH) offense is coming off a game where they scored 71 points against Eastern Michigan. They posted a field goal percentage of 46% and connected on 7 threes. Eian Elmer was the leading scorer for the RedHawks, putting up 23 points. In addition, Bryce Bultman contributed 14 points.

So far, the RedHawks’ defense is ranked 132nd in the country at 70.6 points per contest. In terms of field goal percentage allowed, Miami (OH)’s defense has allowed opponents to shoot 40.2% from the field, including a three-point shooting percentage allowed of 24.7% this season.

Betting Trends

• Across the Falcons’ last ten road games, the team averaged 68 points per game while allowing 78. Their record vs the spread in these contests was 2-8, while going 3-7 straight-up.
• Miami (OH) has a 1-4 record in their last five home games. In this stretch, they averaged 71 points per game while allowing 77. The team also performed well vs the spread at 4-1.
• In their last three games as the betting underdog, the RedHawks have a strong straight-up record of 2-1. In addition, their ATS record was 3-0 in these scenarios.
• The last ten games that Bowling Green was favored, they have an ATS mark of 6-4 while going 9-1 straight up.

Rich Crew’s ATS Prediction

I like the RedHawks here. The Falcons have had one of the easiest schedules in Division 1 basketball. They haven’t faced a Quadrant 1 team and have lost all three versus Quadrant 2 and Quadrant 3. Bowling Green is 2-2 in true road games beating lowly Southern Indiana by two and Northern Illinois (currently on a seven-game losing streak) by 11 in their latest and only road spread win. Big edge for Miami (OH) in the 3-point game. Take the RedHawks +1.