Bowling Green Falcons vs. Ball State Cardinals Total Pick

Bowling Green Falcons (14-6 SU, 8-9 ATS) vs. Ball State Cardinals (11-9 SU, 12-6 ATS)

When: Tuesday, January 30th, 7:00 PM (ET)

Where: Worthen Arena, IN, Muncie

TV: ESPN+

Point Spread: BOWLGR -1/BALLST +1

Total: 148.5

Money Line: Bowling Green Falcons -117/-105

Notable Injuries

Falcons

Cardinals

• Ethan Brittain-Watts (Out) Leg
• Zane Doughty (Out) Undisclosed

Recent Form

On the season, Bowling Green is 14-6, including a 5-2 mark in Mid-American Conference play. The Falcons have gone 3-3 on the road, compared to 9-2 at home. As the favorite, Bowling Green is 9-1.

In their most recent game, the Falcons lost to Toledo by a score of 88-72. Over their last 10 road games, Bowling Green is 3-7, while they are 3-2 in their last five and 2-1 in their previous three.

So far this season, the over/under record for Bowling Green games is 11-6. On average, their games have finished with 147.7 points compared to an average over/under line of 147.8, resulting in an average margin of -0.1 points vs the OU line. Today’s over/under line is set at 148.5. So far, 10 of their games have finished with more points than today’s line.

As the favorite this season, Bowling Green has gone just 5-5 vs. the spread. Over their last 10 games as the favorite, the Falcons are 4-6 ATS. On the road, Bowling Green is 2-4 vs. the spread this year and just 2-8 in their last 10 road games vs. the spread.

Ball State will look to continue their recent success at home, where they are 6-3 this season. Overall, the Cardinals are 11-9, including a 3-5 record in Mid-American Conference play.

The Cardinals are coming off an 81-71 win over Northern Illinois, and they have won two straight games. On the season, Ball State has been the underdog in eight of their 20 games, going 3-5 in those matchups.

Ball State’s over/under record for the season sits at 9-8-1 and today’s over/under line of 148.5 is higher than the average over/under line in their games this season (143.6). So far, nine of their games have finished with more points than today’s line. Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 154 points and their over/under record across their last five games is 2-2-1.

Ball State has been solid against the spread this season, going 12-6. At home, they are 7-2 vs. the spread. Over their last 10 games as the underdog, the Cardinals have gone 7-3 vs. the spread. In their last 3 games at home, Ball State has an ATS record of 2-1.

Analysis

Coming off their recent game, the Bowling Green offense tallied 72 points in a matchup against Toledo. Their field goal percentage for the game was 47.5%, and they made 8 threes. Offensively, the Falcons have a season-long field goal percentage of 44%, which is 222nd in the nation. In terms of three-pointers, they are 289th in percentage and 211th in three-pointers made.

The Falcons’ defense is presently ranked 161st nationally, allowing an average of 71.7 points per contest. Bowling Green’s defense is coming off a game in which they allowed the Toledo offense to knock down 55% of their shots on their way to putting up 88 points.

Ball State’s offense is coming off a strong performance, scoring 81 points against Northern Illinois. They had an overall field goal percentage of 47.2% and made 23/26 free throws. Basheer Jihad is currently the leading scorer for the team, entering today’s matchup with an average of 19.5. Meanwhile, Jalin Anderson also brings a PPG average of 15.7 into the game.

So far, the Cardinals’ defense is ranked 122nd in the country at 70.0 points per contest. In terms of field goal percentage allowed, Ball State’s defense has allowed opponents to shoot 45.6% from the field, including a three-point shooting percentage allowed of 35.9% this season.

Betting Trends

• When looking at their past three road matchups, Bowling Green has an ATS record of 2-1 while averaging 77 per game. The team went 2-1 overall in these games.
• In their last ten games at home, the Cardinals have a straight-up record of 3-7 while going 6-4 vs the spread. The team’s offense averaged 70 points per game in these contests.
• Through their last five games as the betting underdog, the Cardinals have a strong record vs the spread going 3-2. Their straight-up mark in these contests is 1-4.
• The last ten games that Bowling Green was favored, they have an ATS mark of 4-6 while going 8-2 straight up.

Rich Crew’s Total Pick

Take the Over 149.5.