Big Ten Title Pick: Wisconsin vs. Illinois Predictions

Wisconsin Badgers (19-12 SU, 17-18 ATS) vs. Illinois Fighting Illini (23-8 SU, 17-15-2 ATS)

When: Sunday, March 17th, 3:30 PM (ET)

Where: Target Center, MN, Minneapolis

TV: CBS

Point Spread: WISC +3/ILL -3

Total: 149

Money Line: Wisconsin Badgers +126/-153

Notable Injuries

Badgers

• Isaac Lindsey (Questionable) Undisclosed
• Isaac Gard (Out) Undisclosed
• Gus Yalden (Out) Personal

Fighting Illini

• Max Williams (Out) Undisclosed

Recent Form

Wisconsin comes into this game with a record of 19-12 and they have won four games in a row. In Big Ten play, the Badgers have gone 15-9, while they are 4-3 outside of the conference.

On the road this season, Wisconsin has gone 6-9, and over their last 10 games away from home, they have gone 3-7. As the underdog, the Badgers have gone 5-6 this season.

Today’s over/under line of 149 is higher than the average over/under line in Wisconsin’s games this season (138.5). Overall, the over/under record in their games this year is 21-12-2. So far, 24 of their games have finished with fewer points than today’s over/under line.

Wisconsin’s ATS record this season is just below .500 at 17-18, but they have been a solid bet on the road, going 6-9 vs. the spread. Over their last 3 road games, the Badgers are 3-0 ATS. As the underdog, Wisconsin has an ATS mark of 6-5 this year and they are 6-4 vs. the spread in their last 10 games as the underdog.

Illinois is 23-8 overall and 17-6 in Big Ten play. They have won four straight games, including their most recent matchup against Nebraska by a score of 98-87. At home, the Fighting Illini are 19-3 this season, and they have gone 8-2 in their last 10 games at home.

On the year, Illinois has been favored in 28 of their 31 games, going 23-5 in those matchups. As the favorite, they have an average scoring margin of +13.2 points per game.

This season, the over/under record for Illinois games is 24-10. So far, the average over/under line in their games is 150 and their games have averaged 157.4 points. Today’s over/under line of 149 is lower than the average over/under line in their games this year. Over their last three games, their over/under record is 2-1 and those games have averaged 156 points.

Illinois has an ATS record of 17-15-2 this season, including a mark of 9-12-1 at home. Over their last 10 games as the favorite, the Fighting Illini are 5-5 vs. the spread, and their ATS record at home this year is 4-6. Overall, Illinois is 13-14-1 vs. the spread this season as the favorite.

Analysis

In their most recent game, the Badgers’ offense tallied 76 points, consistent with their ongoing season average of 74.7 points per game. Leading Wisconsin in scoring vs. Purdue was Chucky Hepburn with his 22 points. AJ Storr also added 20 points for the Badgers.

At present, the Badgers’ defense is nationally ranked 91st, allowing 69.0 points per game. So far, the Wisconsin defense is giving up an average of 6.5 offensive rebounds per game and are turning teams over 9.3 times per game (376th).

Coming off their recent game, the Illinois offense tallied 98 points in a matchup against Nebraska. Their field goal percentage for the game was 46.4%, and they made 13 threes. Terrence Shannon Jr. is leading the team in scoring at 22.6 points per contest. Marcus Domask has also been a key contributor, with a PPG average of 15.7 going into the game.

So far, the Fighting Illini’s defense is ranked 224th in the country at 73.4 points per contest. So far, the Illinois defense is giving up an average of 8.9 offensive rebounds per game and are turning teams over 10.3 times per game (444th).

Betting Trends

• Across their last five road contests, Wisconsin has a 3-2 record vs the spread. Their overall mark in these games was 2-3, while averaging 74 points per game.
• Across their ten previous home games, Illinois has an ATS mark of 7-3. Their straight up record in these matchups was 6-4 while averaging 85 points per game.
• Spanning across their last three games as the betting underdog, the Badgers have gone 2-1 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 1-2.
• As the betting favorite, the Fighting Illini have an ATS mark of just 5-5 in their last ten games. Illinois posted a straight up mark of 8-2 in these matchups.

Crew’s Pick To Cover The Spread

Sure the Badgers are playing their best basketball of the season, but they couldn’t stop the Illini offense in the previous meeting this season. That was just two weeks back and while the victory over the Boilermakers would give them additional confidence, the overtime may have taken too much out of them to step up again against Illinois this afternoon. Take Illinois -2.5.