Big Ten Best Bet: Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Wisconsin Badgers

Ohio State Buckeyes (14-10 SU, 7-16 ATS) vs. Wisconsin Badgers (16-8 SU, 11-13 ATS)

When: Tuesday, February 13th, 9:00 PM (ET)

Where: Kohl Center, WI, Madison

TV: PEAC

Point Spread: OHIOST +8.5/WISC -8.5

Total: 139.5

Money Line: Ohio State Buckeyes +336/-444

Notable Injuries

Buckeyes

• Owen Spencer (Out) Undisclosed

Badgers

• Kamari McGee (Out) Foot
• Isaac Gard (Questionable) Undisclosed
• Luke Haertle (Questionable) Undisclosed
• John Blackwell (Questionable) Undisclosed
• Gus Yalden (Out) Personal

Recent Form

Ohio State is coming off a 76-73 loss to Indiana, giving the Buckeyes a five-game losing streak. On the road, Ohio State has gone 3-6 this season, and over their last 10 road games, they are 3-7. For the year, Ohio State is 14-10.

As the underdog, Ohio State has gone 1-5 this season, and they are 12-5 when favored. On the road, the Buckeyes have an average scoring differential of -2.0 points per game, while at home, it is +10.0.

Today’s over/under line of 139.5 is lower than the average over/under line in Ohio State games this season (144.2). Currently, their over/under record is 13-10. In their last three games, the over/under record is 2-1 and the average scoring total in those games is 152 points. For the season, the average scoring total in their games is 145 points.

Ohio State has struggled against the spread this season, going just 7-16. On the road, their ATS mark is 3-6 and over their last 10 games as the underdog, they are 5-5 vs. the spread.

Wisconsin enters this game as an 8.5-point favorite, and they have gone 12-4 when favored this season. At home, they have been even better, going 13-2 with an average scoring margin of +12.8 points per game.

After losing their most recent game to Rutgers by a score of 78-56, the Badgers are currently on a four-game losing streak. However, they have been much better at home, going 9-1 in their last 10 games played in Madison.

Wisconsin’s over/under record for the season is 13-9-2. The average over/under line in their games is 138, and the average scoring total is 142.8. Today’s over/under line of 139.5 is similar to the average OU line in their games. So far, 12 of their games have finished with more points than today’s line. In their last three games, their over/under record is 1-1-1 and the average scoring total is 139.

Wisconsin has an ATS record of 11-13 this season, and they are 9-6 vs. the spread at home. Over their last 10 games as the favorite, the Badgers have gone 5-5 ATS, and their ATS mark as the favorite this year is 7-9.

Analysis

Coming off their recent game, the Ohio State offense tallied 73 points in a matchup against Indiana. Their field goal percentage for the game was 41.5%, and they made 5 threes. Offensively, the Buckeyes hold a season-long field goal percentage of 44%, placing them 214th in the national rankings. When it comes to three-pointers, they are ranked 224th in terms of percentage and 219th in three-pointers made.

At present, the Buckeyes’ defense is nationally ranked 118th, allowing 70.0 points per game. In today’s game vs. Wisconsin, the Ohio State defense will be looking to do a better job avoiding putting opponents on the line. In their last game, Ohio State made 24 free-throws vs. the Buckeyes.

The Wisconsin offense is coming off a game where they scored 56 points against Rutgers. They posted a field goal percentage of 32.8% and connected on 5 threes. Connor Essegian led the scoring for the Badgers, contributing 15 points. Additionally, AJ Storr chipped in with 14 points.

Currently, the Badgers’ defense holds the 92nd rank in the nation, allowing 68.4 points per game. On average, opposing teams are hitting 7.1 threes per game vs. Ohio State. This has come on a three-point shooting percentage of 36.5%.

Betting Trends

• Although Ohio State has a straight up record of 0-3 in their last three road games, they have not held up as well vs the spread going 1-2. The team averaged 68 points per game in these games.
• Through their last five home games, Wisconsin has an ATS record of just 0-5. However, their overall record was 1-4 while averaging 68 points per game.
• In their last ten games as the betting underdog, the Buckeyes have a straight up record of 3-7 and an ATS mark of 5-5.
• Spanning across their last three games as the betting favorite, the Badgers have gone 1-2 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 1-2.

Rich Crew’s ATS Pick

The Badgers are ice-cold right now, losers of four straight. However, in all fairness one of the losses was that home loss to Purdue and the other three games were on the road. Wisconsin lost just two games at home this season, losing to Tennessee and Purdue. So, here’s where I’m at. Their defense allowed 75 points in their last three which a bit concerning, but they play solid defense at home and the 75 points allowed to Purdue is the second lowest scoring total for the Boilermakers in Big Ten games. Wisconsin is 5-1 at home in conference games and 4-2 versus the spread. They beat Ohio State by 11 in Columbus and the Buckeyes are 0-6 on the road versus Big Ten opponents and 1-5 ATS. It’s a big number but that’s where my money is landing. Take Wisconsin -9.