Big Ten Best Bet: Michigan vs. Ohio State Pick

Michigan Wolverines (8-21 SU, 7-21 ATS) vs. Ohio State Buckeyes (17-12 SU, 12-17 ATS)

When: Sunday, March 3rd, 4:00 PM (ET)

Where: Value City Arena, OH, Columbus

TV: CBS

Point Spread: MICH +11.5/OHIOST -11.5

Total: 143.5

Money Line: Michigan Wolverines +450/-656

Notable Injuries

Wolverines

• Olivier Nkamhoua (Out) Wrist
• Cooper Smith (Out) Undisclosed

Buckeyes

• Owen Spencer (Out) Undisclosed
• Bruce Thornton (Questionable) Migraine

Recent Form

Michigan is coming off a 30-point loss to Rutgers, and they have lost their last six games. The Wolverines have an overall record of 8-21, including a 3-15 mark in Big Ten play. On the road, Michigan is just 2-9, and their average scoring margin is -12.2 points per game.

As an underdog this season, the Wolverines have gone 3-13, and they have been the underdog in 16 of their 29 games. For the year, Michigan has been the underdog in 55.2% of their games.

Today’s over/under line of 143.5 is lower than the average over/under line in Michigan’s games this season (148.8). This year, the over/under record in Wolverines’ games is 15-13. Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 143 points. On the season, 11 of their games have finished with more points than today’s over/under line.

Michigan has struggled against the spread this season, posting a 7-21 record. Their road ATS mark is just 2-9 and they are 0-3 ATS in their last three road games. As the underdog, the Wolverines have gone 4-12 vs. the spread this year and are just 2-8 in their last 10 games as the underdog.

Ohio State comes into this game as the favorite, as they have been in 19 of their 29 games this season. Their record as the favorite is 14-5.

At home, the Buckeyes have been even better, going 13-4 this season. Their average scoring margin at home is +9.2 points per game, and they have won three straight games at home.

This season, the over/under record for Ohio State games is 16-13, and today’s over/under line of 143.5 is in line with the average OU line in their games (143.3). Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 143 points, and the OU record in their last three games is 2-1.

Ohio State has an ATS record of 12-17 this season, including a mark of 7-10 at home. Over their last 3 home games, the Buckeyes are 3-0 vs. the spread, and they are 5-5 in their last 10 games as the favorite.

Analysis

In contrast to their season average of 74 points per game, the Michigan had a below average performance. They scored 52 points against Rutgers and had a field goal percentage of 31.6%. In terms of three-point shooting, the Wolverines offense has been good from outside, hitting 36% of their three-pointers on an average of 22.3 attempts per game. Their overall field goal percentage is currently 45%.

At present, the Wolverines’ defense is nationally ranked 317th, allowing 79.1 points per game. Michigan’s defense is coming off a game in which they allowed the Rutgers offense to knock down 52% of their shots on their way to putting up 82 points.

The Ohio State offense is coming off a game where they scored 78 points against Nebraska. They posted a field goal percentage of 42.6% and connected on 8 threes. Jamison Battle was the leading scorer for the Buckeyes, putting up 32 points. In addition, Roddy Gayle Jr. contributed 16 points.

The Buckeyes’ defense is presently ranked 111th nationally, allowing an average of 69.9 points per contest. In today’s game vs. Michigan, the Ohio State defense will be looking to do a better job avoiding putting opponents on the line. In their last game, Ohio State made 24 free throws vs. the Buckeyes.

Betting Trends

• When looking at their past five road matchups, Michigan has an ATS record of 0-5 while averaging 60 per game. The team went 0-5 overall in these games.
• Across their last five home contests, Ohio State has a 3-2 record vs the spread. Their overall mark in these games was 1-4, while averaging 65 points per game.
• Going back to their previous five games as the underdog, Michigan has an ATS mark of 1-4 while going 0-5 straight up.
• The Buckeyes have played well in their last three games as the betting favorite, going 2-1 straight up and 2-1 against the spread.

Crew’s Total Pick

These two teams combined for 138 points in their previous meeting this season. The Woverines will be without their top scorer in that game F Olivier Nkamhoua and the Buckeyes may be without theirs Bruce Thornton. Take the Under 143.5.