Bet the Total: Badgers vs. Hawkeyes Pick 2/17/24

Wisconsin Badgers (17-8 SU, 11-14 ATS) vs. Iowa Hawkeyes (14-11 SU, 9-16 ATS)

When: Saturday, February 17th, 2:15 PM (ET)

Where: Carver-Hawkeye Arena, IA, Iowa City

TV: BTN

Point Spread: WISC -1/IOWA +1

Total: 152.5

Money Line: Wisconsin Badgers -117/-105

Notable Injuries

Badgers

• Kamari McGee (Out) Foot
• Isaac Gard (Questionable) Undisclosed
• Luke Haertle (Questionable) Undisclosed
• John Blackwell (Questionable) Hip
• Gus Yalden (Out) Personal

Hawkeyes

• Carter Kingsbury (Out) Undisclosed
• Riley Mulvey (Out) Redshirt

Recent Form

Wisconsin enters this game as a one-point favorite, and they have been the favorite in 17 of their 25 games this season, going 13-4 in those contests. On the road, the Badgers are just 3-6 this season, compared to a 14-2 record at home.

Coming off a win over Ohio State, Wisconsin has gone 3-7 in their last 10 road games, and they have lost three straight road games. Their average scoring margin on the road this season is -5.6, compared to +12.5 at home.

Today’s over/under line of 152.5 is higher than the average over/under line in Wisconsin’s games this season (138). So far, 19 of their games have finished with fewer points than today’s line. Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 130 points, which is less than today’s over/under line.

Wisconsin’s ATS record this season is currently 11-14. On the road, their ATS mark is just 2-7, and they have gone 0-3 vs. the spread in their last three road games. As the favorite, the Badgers have gone 4-6 vs. the spread in their last 10 games.

Heading into today’s game against Wisconsin, Iowa is 14-11 overall and 6-8 in the Big Ten. At home, they are 12-4 this season compared to 2-7 on the road. The Hawkeyes’ average scoring margin at home is +13.0, and they have won two straight games at home.

Coming off a 78-66 loss to Maryland, Iowa is 2-8 when they are the underdog. For the season, they have been the underdog in 10 of their 25 games. So far, they have gone 8-3 in non-conference games compared to 6-8 in the Big Ten.

So far this season, the over/under record in Iowa games is 16-9. Today’s over/under line of 152.5 is lower than the average over/under line in their games this season (160.1). Over their last three games, the over/under record is 2-1 and those games have averaged 162 points.

As the underdog, Iowa has gone just 3-7 against the spread this season. Their overall ATS record is 9-16, and they are just 6-10 vs. the spread at home.

Analysis

In contrast to their season average of 73.8 points per game, Wisconsin had a below-average performance. They scored 62 points against Ohio State and had a field goal percentage of 44%. AJ Storr is leading the team in scoring at 16.3 points per contest. Tyler Wahl has also been a key contributor, with a PPG average of 11.4 going into the game.

So far, the Badgers’ defense is ranked 76th in the country at 67.8 points per contest. In terms of field goal percentage allowed, Wisconsin’s defense has allowed opponents to shoot 45.0% from the field, including a three-point shooting percentage allowed of 36.6% this season.

Most recently, the Iowa offense finished with just 66 points vs. Maryland. For the game, they hit 6/22 three-point attempts and a field goal percentage of 40.6%. For the season, the Iowa offense has been one of the more efficient shooting teams in the NCAA with a field goal percentage of 47%. So far, they have hit 53% of their looks from inside the arc and are averaging 6.5 made threes per contest.

So far, the Hawkeyes’ defense is ranked 298th in the country at 78.0 points per contest. In today’s game vs. Wisconsin, the Iowa defense will be looking to do a better job avoiding putting opponents on the line. In their last game, Iowa made 24 free throws vs. the Hawkeyes.

Betting Trends

• Through their last five road contests, the Badgers offense has averaged 68 points per game while allowing an average of 75. Wisconsin posted an overall record of 1-4 while going 0-5 ATS.
• Through their last five home games, Iowa has an ATS record of just 2-3. However, their overall record was 2-3 while averaging 77 points per game.
• Looking back on the team’s last five games as the underdog, the Hawkeyes have a straight up record of 2-3. Their record vs the spread in these games was 2-3.
• Going back to their last three games as the favorite, the Badgers have a straight up record of 1-2. But their mark vs the spread was just 0-3.

Rich Crew’s Total Pick

The Badgers lost four straight games before getting by the Buckeyes in their last outing, but still failed to cover the spread for the fifth consecutive game. The Hawkeyes are also burning through their backers’ money with five straight spread losses, so I’m going to stay away from making a point spread wager. The total seems like the place to be. Wisconsin’s recent struggles have been on both sides of the ball, but I expect their offense to get back on track today against Iowa’s porous D (won 83-72 last meeting). Iowa shot 41% (7 of 17) from 3-pt land versus Wisc back on Jan 2nd and can match or improve on that this time around. A score of 80-75 gets us there. Take the Over 152.5