Baylor vs. Duke: Expert ATS Pick and Betting Preview

Baylor Bears (18-15 SU, 13-18-2 ATS) vs. Duke Blue Devils (32-3 SU, 23-12 ATS)

When: Sunday, March 23rd, 2:40 PM (ET)

Where: Lenovo Center, NC, Raleigh

TV: None

Point Spread: BAYL +11.5/DUKE -11.5

Total: 143.5

Money Line: Baylor Bears +553/-844

Notable Injuries

Bears

• Langston Love (Probable) Ankle
• Yanis Ndjonga (Questionable) Knee
• Cameron Carr (Out) Personal

Blue Devils

• Maliq Brown (Questionable) Shoulder

Recent Form

Baylor Bears Recent Game/Games

Baylor’s season record dropped to 18-15 after a 76-74 road loss to Texas Tech on Thursday. The Bears, who were +6.5 point underdogs, managed to cover the spread.

After trailing 52-39 at halftime, Baylor tightened up defensively, holding Texas Tech to 24 points in the 2nd half while scoring 35 themselves. The game’s total points of 150 went over the pre-game line of 141.5.

Analysis

Baylor’s offense put up 74 points in their last game, shooting 45% from the field. They struggled from beyond the arc, hitting just 4 of 16 attempts (25%), but were strong at the free-throw line, connecting on 16 of 19 (84.2%).

Norchad Omier led the way with 29 points and 15 rebounds, shooting 66.7% (12/18) from the field. JT Toppin added 26 points and 10 boards, hitting 2 of 3 from deep.

Despite Baylor’s defensive efforts, they couldn’t keep their opponent from scoring 76 points. The Bears allowed 39% shooting from the field, with their opponent hitting 25 of 64 shots.

Baylor did well defending inside the arc, holding their opponent to 33% shooting on two-pointers (10/30). However, they struggled to contain the three-point line, where their opponent shot 44%, making 15 of 34 attempts. Baylor also sent their opponent to the free-throw line 16 times, where they hit 11 free throws (68%).

Duke put up 73 points in their last game, shooting 44% from the field with an effective field goal percentage of 54%. They connected on 37% of their three-point attempts, going 10-for-27, and hit 79.2% from the free-throw line, making 19 of 24 attempts. The Blue Devils grabbed eight offensive rebounds and dished out 11 assists.

Terrence Edwards Jr. led the way with 29 points, hitting 5 of 12 from beyond the arc and adding six rebounds and three assists. Tyrese Proctor contributed 19 points, while Kon Knueppel added 18 points and eight rebounds despite missing all 5 of his three-point attempts.

Defensively, Duke gave up 62 points while allowing their opponent to shoot 44% from the field, as they hit 22 of their 50 attempts. Inside the arc, Duke’s defense saw the other team make 12 of 23 shots, good for 52% shooting.

From three-point range, Duke’s opponents shot 37%, connecting on 10 of 27 attempts. Duke also sent them to the free-throw line 24 times, where they converted 19 for 79%. The Blue Devils allowed eight offensive rebounds in the game.

Betting Trends

• Across their last three road contests, Baylor has been good against the spread, posting a mark of 2-1. Their overall mark in these games was 2-1, while averaging 70 points per game.
• When looking at their past ten home matchups, Duke has an ATS record of 8-2 while averaging 84 per game. The team went 9-1 overall in these games.
• Through their last five games as the betting underdog, the Bears have a strong record vs the spread going 3-1-1. Their straight-up mark in these contests is 1-4.
• The Blue Devils have played well in their last five games as the betting favorite, going 5-0 straight up and 3-2 against the spread.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

The big question mark for Duke going into their first-round game was if Cooper Flagg could play well and come out of the game healthy. Luckily for Duke, he was able to take the floor and, more importantly, was able to get off the court with just 22 minutes of action as Duke raced out to an early lead. Right now, the spread is at -11.5, which I think is too high for this matchup. The Blue Devils are still a fairly young squad, and Baylor is going to figure out ways to pressure their young stars. I like Baylor to cover this one.