Arkansas vs. Duke Point Spread Pick

Arkansas Razorbacks (28-8 SU, 21-15-0 ATS) vs. Duke Blue Devils (31-6 SU, 19-16-2 ATS)

When: Saturday March 26 2022, 8:49 PM PM (ET)

Where: Chase Center

Point Spread: Arkansas +4/Duke -4 (Everygame – Deposit $25, get an extra $50!)

Total: 146.5

Money Line: Razorbacks +150/Duke -183

Key Injuries

Arkansas
Arkansas has no reported injuries at this time.

Duke
Duke has no reported injuries at this time.

Recent Form

The Arkansas Razorbacks come into this matchup with an overall record of 28-8. On the season, the Razorbacks have performed well in their 16 non-conference games, posting a record of 14-2. In addition to their strong non-conference record, Arkansas has played well on neutral courts. Through 9 games, the Razorbacks are 6-3 away from home. Heading into this matchup, the Razorbacks are looking to stay hot as they try to add on to their current 3 game win streak.

The Duke Blue Devils get set to host the Razorbacks with an overall record of 31-6. On the season, the Blue Devils have performed well in their 14 non-conference games, posting a record of 13-1. In addition to their strong non-conference record, Duke has a good record at neutral sites. Through 8 games, the Blue Devils are 7-1. Heading into this matchup, the Blue Devils are looking to pick up their fourth straight win.

For the season, the Arkansas Razorbacks are averaging 76.1 points per game, good for a rank of 37th in the NCAA. Defensively, the Razorbacks are the 128th rated defensive unit, giving up 68 points per game. On the other side, the Duke Blue Devils are the 6th ranked scoring offense, averaging 80.2 points per game, while allowing 67.4 points per contest.

Efficiency Outlook

Arkansas take on the Blue Devils holding the advantage in defensive efficiency, giving up 64.0 points per 70.0 possessions (NCAA Average) compared to Duke at 68.0. When playing as the superior defensive unit, the Razorbacks have a record of 22-7. Even though Duke trails Arkansas on the defensive end of the court, they enter this game holding the edge on offense. So far, the Blue Devils are 30-6 with an edge in offensive efficiency. In these games, they hold an average scoring margin of 13.0.

I don’t expect this game to be heavily dictated by three-point shooting, as both the Razorbacks and Blue Devils are near the bottom of the NCAA in percentage of points from beyond the arc. So far, 24.8% of Arkansas’s points are coming from three-point shots. The same goes for Duke, at 30.2%.

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Betting Trends Worth Noting

• Razorbacks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.
• Razorbacks are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS win.
• Blue Devils are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
• Blue Devils are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite.

Joe’s Pick to COver the Spread

This is as tough a game to pick as any we’ve seen in the whole NCAA Tournament. If forced to make a pick, I’m taking the points here as a good defense beats a good offense more often than not. Note: MLB is coming! You’r wasting money if you’re not betting on bases at a shop that offers dimelines!