Arizona vs. Duke Sweet 16 Betting Preview: Blue Devils Aim to Continue Tournament Dominance

Arizona Wildcats (26-16 SU, 22-20 ATS) vs. Duke Blue Devils (39-3 SU, 26-16 ATS)

When: Thursday, March 27th, 9:39 PM (ET)

Where: Prudential Center, NJ, Newark

TV: CBS

Point Spread: ARZ +9.5/DUKE -9.5

Total: 153.5

Money Line: Arizona Wildcats +399/-546

Notable Injuries

Wildcats

• Motiejus Krivas (Out) Lower Leg

Blue Devils

• Maliq Brown (Questionable) Shoulder

Recent Form

Arizona Wildcats Recent Game/Games

Arizona’s season record moved to 26-16 after a 72-64 loss to Houston on Saturday, March 15th. The Wildcats were +5.5 point underdogs and didn’t cover the spread. The total points for the game were 136, just under the O/U line of 138.

Arizona led 33-28 at halftime but struggled in the 2nd half, scoring 31 points while allowing 44 to Houston.

Duke improved to 39-3 on the season with a 73-62 win over Louisville on Saturday, March 15th. The Blue Devils, who were -6 point favorites, covered the spread with the victory. The total points for the game were 135, falling short of the over/under line of 148.5.

Duke turned the game around in the 2nd half, outscoring Louisville 40-24 after trailing 38-33 at halftime. Their strong defensive effort in the 2nd half was key to the win.

Analysis

Arizona’s offense put up 64 points in their last game, shooting 43.9% from the field with an effective field goal percentage of 49.1%. They struggled from beyond the arc, hitting just 5 of 18 attempts for a 27.8% success rate while connecting on 75% of their free throws (9/12).

Milos Uzan led the way, scoring 25 points on 8 of 16 shooting, including 4 of 6 from three-point range. Caleb Love added 19 points, despite shooting 2 of 9 from deep, and Emanuel Sharp contributed 17 points, hitting 3 of 9 from three.

Arizona’s defense gave up 72 points in their last game, with opponents shooting 42% from the field, hitting 26 of 61 attempts. Inside the arc, they allowed 17 of 38 shots to fall, a 44% success rate.

From three-point range, Arizona’s opponents connected on 9 of 23 attempts, shooting 39%. They also sent them to the free-throw line 12 times, where they made 11, shooting 91%. Arizona gave up nine offensive rebounds.

Duke put up 73 points in their last game, shooting 44% from the field with an effective field goal percentage of 54%. They connected on 10 of 27 three-point attempts, hitting 37% from deep while making 12 of 23 two-point shots for a 52.2% rate. At the free-throw line, they were 19 of 24, shooting 79.2%.

Terrence Edwards Jr. led the way with 29 points and six rebounds, hitting 5 of 12 from three-point range. Tyrese Proctor added 19 points, and Kon Knueppel contributed 18 points and eight rebounds despite missing all 5 of his three-point attempts. Chucky Hepburn struggled from deep, hitting just 1 of 8 threes, finishing with 14 points.

Duke’s defense gave up 62 points in their last game, with the opposing team shooting 44% from the field. They allowed 52% shooting on two-point attempts, as the other team went 12/23 inside the arc.

From three-point range, Duke’s opponents hit 10/27, good for 37%. They also sent the other team to the free-throw line 24 times, where they made 19 free throws, shooting 79%. Duke gave up eight offensive rebounds.

Betting Trends

• In their last three games away from home, the Wildcats have a straight-up record of 1-2 while going 1-2 vs the spread. The team’s offense averaged 75 points per game in these contests.
• Through their last ten home contests, the Blue Devils offense has averaged 84 points per game while allowing an average of 62. Duke posted an overall record of 9-1 while going 8-2 ATS.
• Looking back on the team’s last three games as the underdog, the Wildcats have a straight-up record of 1-2. Their record vs. the spread in these games was 1-2.
• Duke has done well both straight up and vs. the spread when favored to win the game, going 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS in their last three games.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

Duke only let Baylor hang around for a short time on Sunday before overwhelming them in all aspects of the game. Even when Duke goes to their bench, they have guys all across the floor who are capable of scoring in multiple ways. Right now, Duke looks to be the most complete team in the tournament, and I see them not only winning tonight but also getting the point spread cover.