Arizona vs Baylor Picks and Predictions: Bears Set to Maul Struggling Wildcats

Arizona Wildcats (17-8 SU, 14-11 ATS) vs. Baylor Bears (15-9 SU, 9-14-1 ATS)

When: Monday, February 17th, 10:00 PM (ET)

Where: Foster Pavilion, TX, Waco

TV: ESPN

Point Spread: ARZ +1.5/BAYL -1.5

Total: 151.5

Money Line: Arizona Wildcats +101/-123

Notable Injuries

Wildcats

• Motiejus Krivas (Out) Lower Leg

Bears

• Yanis Ndjonga (Questionable) Knee
• Cameron Carr (Out) Personal

Recent Form

Arizona Wildcats Recent Game/Games

The Wildcats fell to 17-8 on the season after a 62-58 loss to the Cougars on Saturday. Arizona, who were +2.5 point underdogs, not only lost but also failed to cover the spread. The game’s total points were 120, falling short of the O/U line of 137.5.

Arizona led 30-25 at halftime but struggled in the second half, scoring 28 points while allowing 37 to Houston. This was a missed opportunity for the Wildcats to gain momentum at home.

Baylor Bears Recent Game/Games

Baylor improved to 15-9 on the season with a 74-71 win over West Virginia on Saturday. The Bears were -9 favorites but didn’t cover the spread. The game’s total points of 145 exceeded the O/U line of 136.5.

Baylor led 30-25 at halftime but allowed 40 points in the second half while scoring 35. Despite the win, the Bears will need to tighten up defensively moving forward.

Analysis

Arizona struggled offensively in their last game, scoring just 58 points with a field goal percentage of 37% (20/54). Their effective field goal percentage was 40.7%, and they hit only 21.7% of their three-point attempts (5/23). The Wildcats were more successful from the free-throw line, making 76.5% of their shots (13/17).

Milos Uzan led the way with 19 points, shooting 66.7% from the field (8/12) and adding five assists. Caleb Love contributed 17 points and seven assists but struggled from beyond the arc, hitting just 1 of 8 attempts (12.5%). L.J. Cryer added 15 points, connecting on 3 of 8 threes (37.5%).

Arizona’s defense held their opponent to just 62 points, with a field goal percentage of 37% (20/54). They allowed 15 two-point baskets on 31 attempts, giving up a 48% shooting rate inside the arc.

From three-point range, Arizona limited their opponent to 5/23 shooting or 21%. They also sent them to the free-throw line 17 times, where they made 13 free throws, shooting 76%. Arizona gave up 11 offensive rebounds in the game.

Baylor’s offense struggled from the field in their last game, shooting just 38.9% overall and 22.7% from three-point range, hitting only 5 of 22 attempts. Their effective field goal percentage was 44.4%, but they excelled at the free-throw line, going 27 of 32 for 84.4%.

Javon Small led the way with 22 points and six assists despite shooting 2 of 10 from deep. Toby Okani contributed 19 points, hitting 3 of 4 from beyond the arc, while Norchad Omier added 17 points and 10 rebounds. Robert O. Wright III was efficient, shooting 6 of 7 from the field and perfect from three.

Even with Baylor’s defense holding their opponent to 38% shooting, they still gave up 71 points, largely due to 27 made free throws on 32 attempts (84%). Baylor fouled enough to send the other team to the line frequently, where they capitalized.

From the field, Baylor’s defense allowed 16 two-point baskets on 32 attempts (50%) and five three-pointers on 22 attempts (22%). They also gave up eight offensive rebounds.

Betting Trends

• Across their ten previous road games, Arizona has an ATS mark of 6-4. Their straight-up record in these matchups was 6-4 while averaging 77 points per game.
• Through their last five home games, Baylor has an ATS record of just 1-3-1. However, their overall record was 1-4 while averaging 71 points per game.
• The Wildcats have played well in their last five games as the betting underdog, going 3-2 straight up and 3-2 against the spread.
• In their last five games as the betting favorite, the Bears have a strong straight up record of 5-0. In addition, their ATS record was 3-2 in these scenarios.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

These two teams met back in mid-January, with Arizona winning by 11 at home. Yet today, they are +1.5 point underdogs on the road vs Baylor. The Wildcats have lost two straight and have a quick turnaround, as they just lost a tough one vs Houston. Baylor also played on Saturday, but are riding a little momentum, with a win over West Virginia. I like Baylor in this one and am taking them at -1.5.