ACC Picks: Wake Forest at UNC Predictions

Wake Forest Demon Deacons (13-5 SU, 10-7-1 ATS) vs. North Carolina Tar Heels (15-3 SU, 11-7 ATS)

When: Monday, January 22nd, 7:00 PM (ET)

Where: Dean E. Smith Center, NC, Chapel Hill

TV: ESPN

Point Spread: WAKE +8/NCAR -8

Total: 155.5

Money Line: Wake Forest Demon Deacons +283/-371

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Notable Injuries

Demon Deacons

• Jao Ituka (Out) Knee

Tar Heels

Recent Form

Wake Forest is 13-5 overall and 5-2 in the ACC. They have been much better at home, going 12-2 compared to 1-3 on the road. Their average scoring margin at home is +15.1 compared to -2.2 on the road.

As an underdog, the Demon Deacons are 1-3 this season. They are 1-4 in their last five road games and 3-7 in their last 10.

This season, the over/under record for Wake Forest is 11-7, and today’s line of 155.5 is higher than the average over/under line in their games (146.6). So far, 10 of their games have finished with more points than today’s line. Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 142 points, and the over/under record in their games over their last 10 is 8-2.

As the underdog this season, Wake Forest has gone 1-3 vs. the spread and 4-6 in their last 10 games as the underdog. On the road, the Demon Deacons are just 1-3 vs. the spread this year and 3-6-1 in their last 10 road games.

North Carolina has been dominant at home this season, going 10-1 with an average scoring margin of +19.2 points per game. They have won six straight games at home, and their record in their last 10 games at home is 9-1.

So far this season, the Tar Heels have been favored in 16 of their 18 games, going 14-2 in those matchups. Overall, they have won eight straight games and have a record of 15-3.

So far this season, the over/under record for North Carolina games is 10-8 and today’s line of 155.5 is in line with the average over/under line in their games of 153.4. This season, 11 of their games have finished with more points than today’s line. Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 155 points.

North Carolina has an ATS record of 11-7 this season, including a mark of 6-5 at home. Over their last 10 games as the favorite, the Tar Heels have gone 7-3 vs. the spread.

Analysis

In their latest game, Wake Forest’s offense looked good, scoring 90 points against Louisville. They recorded an overall field goal percentage of 50% and made 10/12 free throws. For the season, the Wake Forest offense has been one of the more efficient shooting teams in the NCAA, with a field goal percentage of 47%. So far, they have hit 53% of their looks from inside the arc, and are averaging 9.1 made three’s per contest.

The Demon Deacons’ defense is presently ranked 115th nationally, allowing an average of 69.8 points per contest. Wake Forest’s defense is coming off a game in which they allowed the Louisville offense to knock down 50% of their shots on their way to putting up 65 points.

In their latest game, North Carolina’s offense put up 76 points against Boston College. They recorded an overall field goal percentage of 44.6% and made 5 threes. The team’s top scorer is RJ Davis, who enters today’s matchup with an average of 20.2, while Armando Bacot also carries a PPG average of 14.6 into the game.

Currently, the Tar Heels’ defense holds the 103rd rank in the nation, allowing 69.3 points per game. In their previous game vs. Boston College, the Eagles finished with a field goal percentage of 34% and a total of 66 points vs. North Carolina.

Betting Trends

• In their last three games away from home, the Demon Deacons have a straight up record of 1-2 while going 1-2 vs. the spread. The team averaged 80 points per game in this stretch.
• Through their last ten home contests, the Tar Heels offense has averaged 71 points per game while allowing an average of 66. North Carolina posted an overall record of 7-3 while going 6-4 ATS.
• In their last five games as the betting underdog, the Demon Deacons have a straight up record of 1-4 and an ATS mark of 2-3.
• Through their last five games as the favorite, the Tar Heels have an ATS record of 4-1 and a straight up mark of 5-0.

Crew’s O/U Pick

The recent series trends support the Over and the Demon Deacons, but the current form of the tar Heels has me bucking the trends. North Carolina have been killing it in the ACC with a 7-0 conference record and holding their rivals to just 62.7 points per game. Take the Under 155.5.