Zhilei Zhang vs. Agit Kabayel: WBC Interim Heavyweight Prediction

Zhilei Zhang (27-2-1, 22 KOs) vs. Agit Kabayel (25-0, 17 KOs)

When: Saturday, February 25, 2025

Where: Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

TV: PPV

Weight Class: Interim WBC Heavyweight Championship

by Loot of Predictem.com

Betting Odds: Zhilei Zhang (+115), Agit Kayabel (-150)

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Fight Analysis:

Zhilei Zhang and Agit Kayabel will duke it out for the vacant WBC Heavyweight Title on February 25 on the big heavyweight-themed undercard of Beterbiev-Bivol II in Riyadh. It’s a big fight, with Zhang the more-known quantity on the heels of some important fights. Kabayel, almost a decade younger than Zhang at 32, is unbeaten in 25 fights and coming off a nice win over Frank Sanchez, but is more the X-factor in this equation. Let’s break it down!

The contrast in their respective routes to this spot is jarring. Zhang was a decorated amateur, winning a medal in the 2008 Summer Olympics. His pro career moved ponderously, as he sometimes does, but a disputed loss to hyped unbeaten Filip Hrgovic served notice, before two wins over Joe Joyce showed his true worth. He came up short against Joseph Parker in March of last year, before knocking Deontay Wilder stiff in his last fight in June. While it took a while to get his career going, he has made up for it with a condensed schedule against very good opposition. He may have lost a few in the process, but came through the whole thing in a much more-elevated position than he was in previously.

Speaking of ponderous-moving careers, Kayabel has little amateur background, turning pro way back in 2011, building up very slowly over the next 14 years with a spotty schedule. A 2017 win over Dereck Chisora suggested a big move, but he continued to languish and only really stepped up in the last year or so, the win over Sanchez being a legitimately good victory. He had some early-career setbacks in a boxing tournament format that were not counted against his record, so maybe there was a wisdom in bringing the German-based Kurd around slowly. Still, it’s a strange career trajectory.

Zhang can be a dicey proposition from a betting standpoint. He’s getting up there at 41 and in recent fights, we’ve seen him flirt with that big 300-number at his weigh-ins. He can be quite glacial. He’s not the most-nimble guy. Not that Kayabel is some silky mover in the ring, but he’s got a little more energy and better movement. Zhang, however, is comfortable in himself. He is a slow-moving behemoth at times, but can snake out those shots with deceiving quickness. He is deathly-accurate and even when shots don’t appear to be thrown hard, they do a lot of damage with all that weight and technique behind it.

Zhang is a handful with that southpaw stance, that snaky reach, and his ability to land on a target squarely with great regularity. Kayabel hasn’t faced anyone resembling this. He can sometimes keep his hands low and if he does so within the reach of Zhang, he might suffer some serious damage. For Kayabel, this looks to be a fight that calls for speed and some movement.

Kayabel’s best plan of attack might be to spend the first half of the fight concentrating on tiring out the aging Zhang, making him work, and getting into the second half of the fight with his resources intact. We saw Kayabel working the body with great success against Sanchez in his last fight. If he can squeeze in a couple of zingers on Zhang early and get him into the second half of the fight diminished, he can either start piling on points against a gassing Zhang or potentially stop him. That’s easier said than done.

Zhang isn’t the easiest guy to fight. And while slow and seemingly available to hit, there’s a flip side to that coin, as Zhang shoots that southpaw lead left that can reach out there and get you. You see him moving slowly as a big inviting target, and it seems enticing—until he starts moving those hands—a mix of punches thrown at different tempos and trajectories that makes him one of the more strangely effective offensive fighters in the division.

We’ve seen Zhang mix in high-class circles. We haven’t seen that from Kayabel, and one has to wonder why it took almost 15 years to get here. Maybe this isn’t such a bad spot against an aging and slower fighter like Zhang. On the one hand, you can poke holes in Zhang, as his best wins in this period came against a guy in Joe Joyce who wasn’t up-to-snuff and was a spent version of Deontay Wilder. Maybe there’s a bit of a mirage to Zhang’s late-career renaissance in that respect. Still, he’s been in with pretty tough competition and his only setbacks are a pair of reasonably-close decision losses. He might not represent the upper-elite of heavyweight boxing in waters occupied by the likes of Usyk and Fury, but along with guys like Parker, he’s at the peak of that tier just underneath the tip-top. And for a guy in Kayabel to go from where he is to that level still represents quite a leap.

I can see the rationale of taking Kayabel, the younger and fresher fighter who seemed to pick a decent spot, to take his turn at reaching a new level with the vulnerable Zhang. I think that in the interest of value, however, the price is a bit steep on Kayabel as a moderate betting favorite, with Zhang at a decent underdog rate being the more proven commodity at this level. I’m not sure Kayabel belongs at this level and am willing to take an underdog price to find out. I’m going with Zhang in this one.

My Prediction to Win the Fight:
I’m betting on Zhilei Zhang at +115 betting odds. The giant Chinese puncher might be getting up there and can be a bit ponderous with a propensity to gas, but he’s still sharp and dangerous while having proven his durability against a tough roster of hard-hitting opponents. I think the Bovada price on Zhang has some good value at this price.

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