Zhilei Zhang vs. Agit Kabayel: WBC Interim Heavyweight Prediction

Kayabel’s best plan of attack might be to spend the first half of the fight concentrating on tiring out the aging Zhang, making him work, and getting into the second half of the fight with his resources intact. We saw Kayabel working the body with great success against Sanchez in his last fight. If he can squeeze in a couple of zingers on Zhang early and get him into the second half of the fight diminished, he can either start piling on points against a gassing Zhang or potentially stop him. That’s easier said than done.

Zhang isn’t the easiest guy to fight. And while slow and seemingly available to hit, there’s a flip side to that coin, as Zhang shoots that southpaw lead left that can reach out there and get you. You see him moving slowly as a big inviting target, and it seems enticing—until he starts moving those hands—a mix of punches thrown at different tempos and trajectories that makes him one of the more strangely effective offensive fighters in the division.

We’ve seen Zhang mix in high-class circles. We haven’t seen that from Kayabel, and one has to wonder why it took almost 15 years to get here. Maybe this isn’t such a bad spot against an aging and slower fighter like Zhang. On the one hand, you can poke holes in Zhang, as his best wins in this period came against a guy in Joe Joyce who wasn’t up-to-snuff and was a spent version of Deontay Wilder. Maybe there’s a bit of a mirage to Zhang’s late-career renaissance in that respect. Still, he’s been in with pretty tough competition and his only setbacks are a pair of reasonably-close decision losses. He might not represent the upper-elite of heavyweight boxing in waters occupied by the likes of Usyk and Fury, but along with guys like Parker, he’s at the peak of that tier just underneath the tip-top. And for a guy in Kayabel to go from where he is to that level still represents quite a leap.

I can see the rationale of taking Kayabel, the younger and fresher fighter who seemed to pick a decent spot, to take his turn at reaching a new level with the vulnerable Zhang. I think that in the interest of value, however, the price is a bit steep on Kayabel as a moderate betting favorite, with Zhang at a decent underdog rate being the more proven commodity at this level. I’m not sure Kayabel belongs at this level and am willing to take an underdog price to find out. I’m going with Zhang in this one.

My Prediction to Win the Fight:
I’m betting on Zhilei Zhang at +115 betting odds. The giant Chinese puncher might be getting up there and can be a bit ponderous with a propensity to gas, but he’s still sharp and dangerous while having proven his durability against a tough roster of hard-hitting opponents. I think the Bovada price on Zhang has some good value at this price.