Usyk vs. Fury II Prediction: Heavyweight Title Fight Rematch
Oleksandr Usyk (22-0, 14 KOs) vs. Tyson Fury (34-1-1, 24 KOs)
When: Sunday, December 21, 2024
Where: Kingdom Arena, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
TV: PPV
Weight Class: World Heavyweight Championship: 12 Rounds
Fight Analysis:
Betting Odds: Oleksandr Usyk (-175), Tyson Fury (+145)—Odds by Bovada
Oleksandr Usyk defends his World Heavyweight Championship in a rematch with former champion Tyson Fury on December 21 in Riyadh. This is a rematch from a May bout, which Usyk won by split 12-round decision in a compelling fight with some momentum shifts. This rematch is one of the more high-stakes heavyweight bouts in recent memory, with each man’s legacy in the balance. There is a lot to break down in this bout, as we try to determine the best course for action in betting this big heavyweight title rematch.
The first fight was a back-and-forth affair. After a difficult start, Fury got into a groove and appeared to be running away with it. Usyk then showed there is a lot of heart and mettle to go along with his technical superiority, rallying in the mid-rounds and putting his far-larger opponent into dire straits with a second-half rally, winning a close split nod on the cards. It sets up beautifully for a rematch in a title fight that lived up to expectations. We can only hope the second fight is as good.
The numbers in this fight are compelling. Usyk, a former undisputed champ at cruiserweight, has moved up and taken down the largest real heavyweight champion on record. And he didn’t poke and prod his way to a win, often muscling his way through the fight and having Fury in trouble multiple times, on the verge of being stopped. But despite having good size for a blown-up cruiser, Usyk is still giving up 40-50 pounds on a man who has almost a half-foot of height on him. Also, Usyk is technically older than Fury at 37 but is seen as the fresher fighter with more good fights that lie ahead, while Fury is clearly at the end, with this possibly being his final appearance.
The issue of diminishing returns is a big theme in this fight as it pertains to Fury. Usyk is better-preserved and has lived a cleaner life. Fury has been in more wars and in more in-ring struggles that result in there being more mileage on a fighter’s odometer. One remembers Fury challenging Wladimir Klitschko all those years ago, spending time talking about how Klitschko was an old man. Fury is now that old man with well over a decade of taking on the best big men in his rearview. And he’s had it far from easy, with a large handful of fights where he had to dig deep, overcome adversity, and navigate his way to the winner’s circle. That gave him experience and toughness, but the flip side to that coin is when a fighter’s age starts rising, all those struggles can start to cost you.
We shouldn’t be so hard on Fury, though. Usyk is a tough guy to fight and has the credentials in the heavyweight division to illustrate that. Fury giving him as much trouble as he did shows he’s not as thrown off by Usyk as others have been. With 12 rounds of data and months to retool his approach, I wouldn’t really be too quick to write him off. Sure, it’s a daunting proposition. Fury knew what he was up against last time. He had just stunk up the building in his non-title bout against Francis Ngannou leading up to that. The urgency wasn’t lost on him after watching Usyk do his thing at heavyweight and with him needing something good to happen after the Ngannou debacle. So how much credence can we really put into the notion that a more-urgent Fury will give way to a different fight? He was plenty urgent the first time.
Still, Fury is a prideful man aware of legacy and history. This is almost reminiscent of the end of Muhammad Ali’s final title run in the late-seventies when he lost to Leon Spinks, came back better, also at age 36, beat Spinks in the rematch, and retired (for the time being) as champion. Problem for Fury is that Usyk is no Leon Spinks. But he still came close, and if taking a positive stance on Fury in this bout, that’s what I’d be using as ammo. That he did well and maybe greater familiarity would lead to him getting started faster. Or he can see that maybe he wasn’t as assertive as he could have been with his size and weight, often times fighting off the back foot too much in their first go-around.
There’s this small part of me that can’t escape the convenience of a script where Usyk wins fight one, Fury wins fight two, and that sets up for a trilogy where everyone maximizes their income from this. With boxing already shaky in terms of overall public confidence, who can really say what’s going on in Saudi Arabia with all this? So, maybe that boosts Fury’s stock a little, the idea that him winning brings more money into this thing. But just looking at this straight-ahead, I don’t think Fury is in a position right now to be getting any better. Usyk is still going to be a handful in the same ways he was the first time, and I see him getting to the finish line a nose ahead once again. I’ll take Usyk.
My Prediction to Win the Fight:
I’m betting on Oleksandr Usyk at -175 betting odds. Despite pairing well with Usyk the first time and hurting him, it seemed that Fury was doing his best and it still wasn’t good enough, as Father Time gets us all. And overly focusing on what Fury can do different and how he can improve serves to ignore the adjustments a tactical master like Usyk can also make for the rematch. Still, it’s not an easy call, regardless of what side you take in this evenly-matched title fight rematch. Bet your pick or FREE by scoring a 100% real cash bonus up to $300 when entering promo code PREDICT100 at MyBookie Sportsbook!
