Tyson Fury vs. Oleksandr Usyk Fight Analysis & Prediction
Tyson Fury (34-0-1, 24 KOs) vs. Oleksandr Usyk (21-0, 14 KOs)
When: Saturday, February 17, 2024
Where: Kingdom Arena, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
TV: PPV
Weight Class: Undisputed Heavyweight Title
Betting Odds: Tyson Fury (-135), Oleksandr Usyk (+105)—Odds by Bovada
Fight Analysis:
Tyson Fury takes on Oleksandr Usyk on February 17 at the Kingdom Arena in Riyadh. It’s a giant heavyweight battle, a legacy-defining fight between two reigning champions in the same division—the de facto number one and two guys in the weight class. Fury is more the established force at heavyweight, having beaten Wladimir Klitschko in 2015 for the belt. But Usyk has proven himself since moving up to heavyweight with some big wins of his own. This will determine who is the champion. So, who is it going to be? Let’s break it down!
The current state of Fury needs to be viewed a few different ways. He’s 35 now and with a lifetime of fighting and some outside-the-ring abuse, let’s just say he’s not a young 35. His last fight was a rough-looking performance against a guy who was ultra-dangerous in Ngannou, but a pro boxing debutant, nonetheless. His condition was ragged, he looked exceptionally sloppy, and he was cut in the fight. With that being in late-October, this fight had to be pushed back, but is it enough time for him to shake off that last outing, get himself in better condition, and enter this in peak form? Against a fighter of Usyk’s caliber, he can’t afford to leave many loose ends.
At the same time, an older veteran like Fury is perhaps given some benefit of the doubt as he likely underestimated Ngannou and phoned in his performance, to his own detriment. We’ve seen aging champions match up their urgency to the perceived level of threat and sometimes, they miscalculate, as Fury did against the capable Ngannou. Therefore, using that as fuel to propel a pick against Fury in this spot could be costly. Fury has shown that he can summon the correct amount of urgency and motivation when taking on someone from his arena.
Still, you almost wonder if Fury could be caught underestimating Usyk. He surely respects Usyk from a skills and accomplishments point of view. But in his biggest fights, namely the ones against Deontay Wilder, he was facing a tall assassin who can level you with one shot. Usyk is a former cruiserweight who moved up, now taking on the giant of the division in the six-nine Fury. Will it register differently with Fury? It would be trouble if he figures his size and resumé will insulate him from the full scope of Usyk’s skills and that he’s safe with Usyk not really being a one-shot KO artist like some of Fury’s tougher opponents.
While you’d prefer to not have Fury overly-depend on size, his physical stature and bulk would seem to go a long way in this matchup. And with Usyk scoring the wins he has scored in the heavyweight division, with the two huge wins over Joshua, it could be foolish to dwell on how Usyk fought most of his career as a cruiserweight. I think the better route to take is to acknowledge how much of a winner he is, having won an Olympic gold medal and cleaning out the cruiserweight division better than anyone ever has, before making his mark with the big boys. This is not an easy man to beat—a cunning strategist with an elevated level of ring know-how.
Still, Usyk has a mountain of a man on his hands in this one. You wonder if he can effectively employ the same tactics that worked on Joshua and others against the towering behemoth Fury. Will he be able to take the lead, knowing he’s in Fury’s range before he’s in his? Or will he need to be cagey, lay back, and wait for opportunities to counter or capitalize on mistakes? And let us not forget that while we carry on about Fury’s edges in strength and size, he’s an educated and cunning fighter in his own right. And after somehow standing up multiple times to some of history’s best punchers in combat sports, he enters this knowing that Usyk’s route to victory is really a singular path—to use his smarts, movement, and cunning to maneuver his way to a points win.
I think it’s a bit interesting how Usyk is portrayed as the fitter, more-active, and more “together” fighter. It’s true that his professionalism is an edge, as is his conditioning. But he’s actually two years older than Fury, despite many less fights and time spent at the top. At 37, is his best work ahead of him? It’s going to need to be for the purposes of who he is fighting in this bout. And not to take away from his two wins over Anthony Joshua, but “AJ” had been showing signs that he was maybe a notch below a guy like Fury. And while Usyk did score a stoppage win over Daniel Dubois in August, his fighting schedule has been sparse, with a one-fight-per-year rate going back to 2018.
Fury looked bad when we last saw him. I’m not sure it’s any worse than Usyk appearing to be stopped by a borderline body shot from Dubois in his last fight, also bringing some possible vulnerability to light. I suspect we get a better version of Fury in this and when it comes to high-level championship fights, we’re looking at a man in Fury who has always delivered. When his urgency is brought to a fever pitch, as it should be for this rumble, he’s not easy to stop. I think his motivation, size, and skills will be too much for Usyk to overcome. I’m taking Fury in this one.
My Prediction to Win the Fight:
I’m betting on Tyson Fury at -135 betting odds. Usyk is a difficult proposition, a shrewd strategist who does a lot of little things that are hard to account for. Fury, however, brings skills, size, and passion—a package that could be just slightly out of range for the smaller Usyk.