Tyson Fury vs. Francis Ngannou Pick & Predictions

Tyson Fury (33-0-1, 24 KOs) vs. Francis Ngannou (Pro Debut)

When: Saturday, October 28, 2023

Where: Diriyah Arena, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

TV: PPV

Weight Class: Heavyweight Non-Title Fight: 10 Rounds

Betting Odds: Tyson Fury (-850), Francis Ngannou (+550)—Odds by Bovada where you can bet the fight live while it’s going on! They’ll give you a 50% bonus too!

Fight Analysis:

World Heavyweight Champion Tyson Fury battles former UFC Heavyweight Champion Francis Ngannou on October 28 in Saudi Arabia. Fury’s title will not be at stake, and this is scheduled for ten rounds. It will be Ngannou’s first official boxing match, taking on a seasoned and long-reigning champion in Fury. It’s a fascinating matchup for many reasons. Let’s break it down!

This is truly a bout for intergalactic supremacy. Ngannou isn’t some BJJ master where you can’t envision the transition. He made it to the top by blasting people’s heads off their bodies, a skill that you would think has some crossover appeal to boxing. There are certainly elements of the Sweet Science that will be lost on him, especially in relation to the expert-boxing of Fury. But if there is one skill you want to have, it’s the one that is the lynchpin of Ngannou’s entire success.

The thing of it is, Fury has already been tested, enduring three fights with the lethal-hitting Deontay Wilder. We see Fury isn’t an easy guy to put away, repeatedly rising from shots that looked like fight-winning blows. This is a man who knows how to rebound from adversity. His stamina belies his jiggly appearance, and his recuperative powers are the best seen in the heavyweight division since the glory days of Larry Holmes. So, simply reaching Fury might not be enough.

Fury knows how to fight. He might not be that fast. He doesn’t hit crazy hard. He is just a complete natural in the art of boxing. He knows the rhythm of a fight, how to act in a 12-rounder, and what to do in a protracted battle. He is very heady and strategic. I think these assets are the biggest threats to Ngannou. Certainly, Fury knows that the early rounds are the most dangerous for him, but the further he gets from the opening bell, the better it is for him. We’re talking about a guy in Ngannou who not only is stepping into a completely different context, but is facing a ten-round fight when his rep was built on annihilating people in a matter of seconds. In boxing terms, we talk of fighters dragging opponents into the deep water, usually meaning the latter rounds. With Ngannou, Fury might be taking him to that place much sooner.

Ngannou added Mike Tyson to his training team to add some intrigue, as Fury was named after the former heavyweight king. Again, what Ngannou brings to the table is beyond mere power. And yes, this was without boxing gloves and against non-boxers, but his performances in the UFC are truly jaw-dropping, and the main takeaway is that this is a dangerous man. That’s not just for MMA fighters, but that goes for anybody. Because when he zeroes in and starts letting it fly, whoever is being targeted has a real problem on their hands and is one slip-up from dreamland.

Fury was able to avoid the power of Wilder resulting in a defeat—no easy task. But those were power-shots from another boxer, where Fury was well-trained to anticipate certain shots. And not that Ngannou is some mindless windmilling slugger, but he will provide a different look, with shots coming from different angles and directions. It’s not like he has to orchestrate some masterful game-plan and see a hundred different stars line up right. He just has to get those hands to touch Fury’s chin—easier said than done.

Ngannou has fought some big men with his run as a top UFC heavyweight. But now he’s facing a master boxer who stands 6’9” and can hit you from halfway across the ring. So, as much as it’s a different look for Fury, this is still his world. He knows how to use the ring, and this is the first time Ngannou will be fighting in a ring. He is known for winning battles of attrition, taking on a guy who became famous for highlight-reel KOs that took just a few seconds. The MMA-to-boxing jump is a hard one to make with the new playing field, equipment, and time-structure. Then you’re taking on guys who mastered every nuance of the sport—movement, defense, pace, setting guys up, offensive variety, etc. The list goes on, and once you really take it all in, maybe it makes the element of power less compelling.

Ngannou is used to opponents being leery of his hands. Now, he’s going against a guy who is going to be throwing that long jab, keeping a steady diet of leather in Ngannou’s face. When Ngannou looks to launch an assault, the master of range Fury uses his legs, and with his already super long frame, he’s not an easy guy to get to with shots. And with all the talk of Ngannou’s power, let us not forget the sharp punching of Fury, with his innate offense coming from a jumbo-sized man where it’s just going to be hurtful for opponents.

I think we’ll find over time with these crossover fights that the boxer will rely on the inherent edges he has as a veteran of that sport. That means opening with caution, with the knowledge that things will start to fall apart with the MMA fighter as each round passes. The MMA fighter’s offense will get more ragged, their defense will start to fall off, fatigue will set in, and the boxer’s work will start to resonate better. Why reduce it to an early-rounds slugfest where the MMA fighter is given an opportunity to deliver the one thing they have that can get them the win?

Fury’s ring and fighting IQ will play big roles in this one. I see him opening with caution, poking and prodding, and getting a lay of the land, before unveiling his offense and movement. After the fifth round or so, I see a depreciated Ngannou starting to take the brunt end of Fury’s offense, where the volume and variety will soon have him in peril and looking for answers. I see Fury maybe having to survive some anxiousness but getting Ngannou out of there before the final bell. I’m going with Tyson Fury.

My Prediction to Win the Fight:

I’m betting on Tyson Fury at -850 betting odds. This is his world, and dealing with extreme punching power is his specialty, surviving three fights with Deontay Wilder. Ngannou represents a real danger-factor, as he is a special puncher, but he’s out of his depth with Fury.

Prop Bet Picks: Narrowing it down to some better-paying prop bets, we think that Fury to win by knockout in rounds five, six, and seven is a good area to target, going off at +700, +850, and +1100, respectively. 

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