Terence Crawford vs. Errol Spence Fight Predictions

Terence Crawford (39-0, 30 KOs) vs. Errol Spence (28-0, 22 KOs)

When: Saturday, July 29, 2023

Where: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada

TV: PPV

Weight Class: World Welterweight Championship

Betting Odds: Terence Crawford (-145), Errol Spence (+110)— Odds by Bovada

Fight Analysis:

Terence Crawford and Errol Spence will battle it out for the Welterweight Championship of the World on July 29 in Las Vegas. You have two unbeaten fighters, in addition to a pair of entrants in the pound-for-pound rankings. They have a combined record of 67-0 with 52 knockouts. And with 147 pounds having been a stomping ground for some of the world’s best in the last handful of years, we finally get the top two guys doing battle.

The stakes of this cannot be overstated. When one thinks of the most-pivotal fights in this division’s recent history, Crawford-Spence fulfills many of those characteristics. Fights like Leonard-Hearns were career-defining mega-blockbusters. Trinidad-De La Hoya may not have been a great fight, but it was a pivotal moment in both men’s careers. In this fight, you have two undefeated champions, neither of whom has shown any signs of depreciation. The result of this fight will resonate forever in each man’s career. It truly doesn’t get any bigger than this. It’s everything on the line, no excuses.

The battle lines are murky and clear at the same time. With Spence, you have a little more youth and superior physicality in the form of a naturally-bigger man. While already 33 and having braved a career and life-threatening car accident several years back, his last two wins show him in fine form. Crawford, 35, first gained acclaim as an unparalleled lightweight. And while an inch shorter, Crawford is surprisingly spidery and even has a two-inch reach edge on Spence. But Spence is every bit a welterweight and is, in fact, the more-robust man.

One perhaps shouldn’t look to nit-pick Crawford, his 39-0 record, and his titles in three weight classes. But while he is a betting underdog and has several fewer years in championship waters, including a layoff for the car crash, it might be Spence with the better ring credentials. This is by no fault of Crawford’s, as it is hard finding guys to fight a guy like Crawford, who has been on top for so long and rarely even threatened. Nevertheless, with wins over fresher versions of Kell Brook and Shawn Porter, along with Mikey and Danny Garcia, Spence has mixed it up in some big spots and has maybe been forced to overcome more adversity than Crawford.

From a skills standpoint, it’s going to be hard to call the ultra-tricky Crawford into question. But those fancying an angle on the underdog Spence are no doubt looking at Crawford’s somewhat-preposterous career build. Without attributing blame, for a 35-year-old champion of his stature to have not been in a truly huge fight before now is a valid critique. Every time you look up and see Crawford fighting, it’s a name past his prime or an alphabet soup-sanctioning body darling who secured a high ranking. And not that Spence doesn’t have some of that sprinkled into the mix too, but this absurdly-prolonged simmer to this point might have cost Crawford some of that big-fight experience, in addition to not properly seasoning him for when he enters the truly-deep waters like he is on this night.

p>But make no mistake, there are some great reasons why Crawford is fetching this quote as a decent favorite. And not to paint Spence as some one-speed mauler who just uses physicality to smother and overcome his opposition. But the superior technician in this matchup is Crawford. He is as slick as they come. Operating effortlessly and seamlessly from both stances, he has a way of making opponents focus more on him, to deal with him, to negotiate all the different tricks and wrinkles he brings to the table. It’s not hard to figure out why those who move the careers of his more notable contemporaries would steer clear.

On top of extreme levels of craft, Crawford often gets overlooked for how punishing he can be, with none of his last ten opponents having survived the distance. He’s a technician who looks to do damage, working well to the body, before bringing his slashing offense up to the head. He brings a lot to the table, and while you can question his opposition to a certain degree, one can’t help but notice how he really seems to strip an opponent of his best traits. He will be looking to shift Spence’s perspective from what’s going out to what’s coming in, and when that happens, it can render offensively-oriented fighters like Spence a very diminished force.

I see Spence going out there and trying to kill the body. But Crawford is no wilting lily and could engage Spence with his craftier body work. Remember, Crawford has stopped ten straight opponents. I think Crawford will find it a bit easier to be in a position to launch a sustained offense, with so many more stylistic options at his disposal, in addition to edges in speed and slickness. And not that it’s hard envisioning Spence disrupting the smooth boxing style of Crawford with his aggression, skill, power, and fact that he’s no slow-poke himself, but it will be more of an uphill battle for him.

While we may have seen Spence in some more demanding spots in recent years, he has shown that he can be caught. His defensive acumen lags behind his offensive capability. He’s also a bit more one-dimensional on offense. And I think with Crawford being so difficult to dissuade, so cerebral, and such a complete fighter,he deserves to enter this fight with at least a slightly rosier outlook than Spence. I’m taking Crawford.

My Prediction to Win the Fight:

I’m betting on Terence Crawford at -145 betting odds. Spence is a prodigious talent and a robust task for any 147-pounder with his physicality and unrelenting inside pressure. But against Crawford, he’s facing the total package—a fighter who truly has it all and will be looking to roll it out in a big way in the signature fight of his career. Bet your Crawford/Spence pick for FREE by scoring a 100% bonus from one of the bookies on our best betting sites list!