Teofimo Lopez vs. Arnold Barboza Jr. Title Fight Predictions

Teofimo Lopez (21-1, 13 KOs) vs. Arnold Barboza, Jr. (32-0, 11 KOs)
When: Friday, May 2, 2025
Where: Times Square, New York City, New York
TV: DAZN
Weight Class: WBO Junior Welterweight Title: 12 Rounds

Betting Odds: Teofimo Lopez (-250), Arnold Barboza, Jr. (+185)—Odds by Bovada

Fight Analysis:

Unified junior welterweight champion Teofimo Lopez defends his title against unbeaten challenger Arnold Barboza in the main event on May 2 in Times Square. Lopez is the more-known quantity, having been in some high-profile fights with some big wins on his ledger. At 27, he looks to make a push for real stardom, beginning with what should be a difficult assignment against the unbeaten 33-year-old Barboza. Let’s break this one down!

Lopez is highly skilled, and with wins over Vasyl Lomachenko and Josh Taylor, he boasts of wins that have a quality no one at this weight can touch. But he’s been a bit removed from the public eye, and after his transcendent 2020 win over Lomachenko, one may have expected more of a push. Some things made that difficult, including a rough bout with COVID and some fights being canceled. And he was, in fact, slowed down when he lost the only fight of his career to George Kambosos in Australia in a nip-and-tuck decision defeat. But he did beat the man at 140 pounds in Josh Taylor. With Barboza, he might have what is, on paper, his third-toughest opponent.

While Barboza has put himself on the precipice of some big things and won the WBO strap in his last fight with a quality win over Jack Catterall, his career trajectory has been a bit baffling. Granted, he didn’t have an amateur background when he turned pro at 21, so maybe a long build-up was expected. But it’s unclear how those who move Barboza felt it would be best to have him in this position when he’s already in his mid-thirties. What took so long? And while he has some quality wins and has been fighting 10 and 12-rounders for about 7 years, the build-up to this point has been agonizing to watch.

That doesn’t mean Barboza can’t win or that he isn’t dangerous. It does, however, make you wonder about the confidence of Barboza and his team. Why string him along for so long only to make it so that when he’s in there with the best, his own best fighting might be behind him? In one corner, you have a guy taking on the best when he’s 22, as opposed to Barboza, who needed to be over a decade older to do the same thing.

As his record suggests, with just 11 knockouts in 32 fights, Barboza is not the greatest puncher. He is pretty slick, however, able to bounce in and out of range effortlessly. He showed a lot of technical mastery in his last fight against Catterall. He is cagey and tricky, a very defensively aware fighter. He’s not an easy man to fight and has really good size dimensions for a 140-pounder. You’re not likely to catch him making many mistakes, as he never undermines himself. He knows what he can do and what he is capable of, always staying within himself and giving himself the best chance to win. Fighters who thrive on capitalizing on their opponents’ mistakes are going to have a hard time with Barboza. He just doesn’t give his opponents much of an “in.”

While his career path leaves something to be desired, something tells me Barboza won’t be an easy out, even with a fighter like Lopez standing across from him. It also doesn’t hurt Barboza that he now knows what it’s like to win in hostile territory, his last win against Catterall coming in Manchester, England. He can’t punch hard at this level, doesn’t do anything offensively that leaves one amazed, and he’s not a very flashy fighter. But he’s an experienced, smart, and well-seasoned fighter who has built up very gradually to this spot and I’d expect him to perform accordingly.

Against Lopez, however, he might need more. Granted, we saw a rather unspectacular fighter in Kambosos beat Lopez. But that was Lopez coming off his best win, having to fight in Australia and not being at his best, more or less outhustled in a close decision loss in the opponent’s home-country. Barboza is unlikely to provide that level of hustle, quickness, or work-rate. Barboza will look to stink this fight out, peck, and poke his way to winning rounds while avoiding the power and skill that Lopez can provide.

I just think this is the level where it would help Barboza to have one compelling aspect to his skill set. Not having a surplus in the area of speed and power doesn’t mean he can’t be effective, but it also gives Lopez the ability to focus on his offense more. One gets the feeling that Barboza is more a guy who knows how to use tactics to navigate his way to the winner’s circle, whereas Lopez is more the real fighter in this equation. He simply knows how to fight.

We’ve seen some off-versions of Lopez to the point where he’s not a sure thing against fighters at the level of Barboza. He’s not the most-dependable guy and you’re never totally sure what you’re going to get. But I think his added ring activity over the last few years has him ready to make a big move soon. I think Barboza has a lot of ability and might still be a factor at this weight after this, but Lopez is too much for him. I’m taking Teofimo Lopez in this one.

My Prediction to Win the Fight:
I’m betting on Teofimo Lopez at -250 betting odds. This fight might be difficult for Lopez, who may need to get creative to engage Barboza along the lines that suit him best. But after watching Lopez crack the code against Lomachenko and Taylor, it’s difficult to envision Barboza flummoxing him to the point where it puts a win in jeopardy.