Ryan Garcia vs Rolly Romero: Welterweight Showdown Prediction & Betting Analysis

Ryan Garcia (24-2, 20 KOs) vs. Rolly Romero (16-2, 13 KOs)
When: Friday, May 2, 2025
Where: Times Square, New York City, New York
TV: DAZN
Weight Class: Welterweights: 12 Rounds

Betting Odds: Ryan Garcia (-900), Rolly Romero (+500)—Odds by Bovada

Ryan Garcia takes on Rolando “Rolly” Romero in a welterweight 12-rounder in NYC on May 2. This fight has a significant backdrop, with the massively talented Garcia making his first appearance since what seemed like a gigantic win over Devin Haney last year. A failed drug test and other lifestyle issues took his triumph and made it something from which he now has to rebuild, starting with the hard-hitting Romero. Let’s break this one down!

Fight Analysis

This is a turning of the page for Garcia in some ways. On the one hand, he’s only 26, and other than a loss to preeminent Gervonta Davis, he looks really good. The way he dismantled Haney seemed too good to be true, and it turned out that it was just that. But now, at welterweight, he is at least not dying to cut weight. And he’s fighting a guy in Romero who has mostly fought at or near the same weight as Garcia, himself not being a full-fledged 147-pounder. But as assessment on Garcia will never be complete without information that is frankly difficult to find.

Garcia may not be in with the toughest competition, any adverse urine test finding likely won’t impact a wager, and he should presumably not be compromised by cutting weight. Still, these last few years have been troubling, and in the aftermath of the Haney result, he seemed to be headed down a dark path. While making the allowance for personal growth, you just don’t know for sure how grounded he is. And maybe against Romero, it won’t even matter.

Romero, 29, is not an easy guy to assess. His losses to Gervonta Davis and Isaac Cruz, both by stoppage, suggest he’s a level beneath the level Garcia occupies. But in between all that, he was good enough to win a vacant 140-pound belt against Ismael Barroso and enters this fight coming off a win in September. He was also struggling to make these lower weights and may even be better with less weight-related grief.

To characterize Romero as a guy only banking on his punch may be a bit simplistic, but against the skills and speed of Garcia, that’s really the only thing upon which he can bank. He’s a long underdog, and for good reason. But in light of some of the shadows surrounding Garcia, Romero is, in many ways, the guy you want in there at this point, going off at a big price. He can undoubtedly punch, with 13 KOs in 16 wins. He may not have succeeded, but at least he knows what it’s like to face off against top guys, and maybe the third time is the charm.

Again, while Romero fulfills some aspects you’d like to see from a considerable underdog, with some question marks surrounding Garcia to boot, the odds are what they are for a good reason. Romero might not be slow, but may appear glacial with the blinding hand speed that Garcia can create. Garcia can be caught. He has been before. He sometimes leaves his head and chin in the air and can be caught with a well-timed counter. He’s starting to give away some of the physical advantages he had at lower weights, with his height, and now, he has reached more standards for this division.

I suspect that while there are some issues with Garcia, he’s not a man numb to his image and his goal is to breathe some air back into the boxing-related aspects of his life. You have two fighters with high KO rates in this fight. You also have the long underdog being a man who has been stopped twice the two times he stepped up to this level, along with Garcia who was stopped in his only loss. Romero might try to catch Garcia cold, knowing a protracted fight only leaves a larger window for Garcia to shine with his superior skills. And in Garcia, you have a guy looking to put his name back into the big-fight conversation against a guy against whom he may not be inclined to play.

Surely, Garcia sees he’s not even the main event on this card. He went from having as good a win as a fighter can have against Haney to being derided and now playing second-fiddle to someone else. I’d suspect he comes out looking to make an impression and if he’s unable to, it won’t be because of the exquisite boxing skills of Romero, it will because of his power.

There are entirely too many questions surrounding Garcia to warrant taking the -900 plunge with him winning. It’s a likely outcome, to be sure, but why do that with him now when there have been so many better opportunities to book that level of a win? And if I were to pick Romero and somehow be correct, a +500 return just doesn’t seem to be enough. But with the weight these fighters are at now, along with the texture of the fight appearing to be heavy on offense from the get-go between two hard punchers, I think a shortish fight could be in the cards. With the “under” set at 6.5 rounds at -115, I suspect some explosions to occur prior to midway through the seventh round.

My Prediction to Win the Fight:
I’m betting that the Ryan Garcia vs. Rolly Romero fight goes under 6.5 completed rounds at -115 betting odds. You have two fighters with big firepower whose defensive abilities lag far behind their offensive prowess. Combine that with the urgency of Garcia and the style of Romero, and it seems a lot would need to go wrong for this to be a fight that goes into the latter rounds.