Oleksandr Usyk vs. Daniel Dubois Betting Prediction & Fight Analysis

Oleksandr Usyk (20-0, 13 KOs) vs. Daniel Dubois (19-1, 18 KOs)

When: Saturday, August 26, 2023

Where: Wroclaw Stadium, Wroclaw, Poland

TV: PPV

Weight Class: World Heavyweight Title

Betting Odds: Oleksandr Usyk (-1100), Daniel Dubois (+600)—Odds by Bovada (Home of the 50% bonus using a credit card or massive 75% when you deposit using Bitcoin!)

Fight Analysis:

Heavyweight Champion Oleksandr Usyk defends his titles against once-beaten British KO puncher Daniel Dubois on August 26 in Poland. Usyk is coming off two wins over Anthony Joshua, earning him the heavyweight belt, as he came off a run as cruiserweight champ. After turning pro at 26 a decade ago, Usyk has been perfect, winning belts in two divisions and not tasting defeat following a gold medal run in the 2012 Olympics. Dubois, meanwhile, is a big and dangerous fighter. At 25, he has youth on his side and definitely looks the part. Can he give Usyk a run for his money, or will we see another dominant performance by Usyk?

It’s been a challenging time for Usyk, as it has been for many Ukrainian athletes during this period. He has been out of the ring for a year, though the inactivity shouldn’t really hurt him, as he has been fighting a once-a-year schedule for several years now. And as a former decorated amateur fighting all over the world, fighting in Poland is unlikely to bother him. It’s really amazing that we’re sitting here with Usyk as the heavyweight champ. With the era of super-sized heavyweights, it was thought the days were over seeing someone emerge from the cruiserweight division to take on men who are 50 pounds bigger. But the champion has experienced nary a bump on his road from the Olympics to professional world titles, all the way up to annexing the heavyweight belts from Joshua. He couldn’t book a fight with Tyson Fury in an effort to consolidate the belts, instead booking this fight against the high-ranked Dubois.

Usyk is a technical marvel and an expert in game planning and tactics. Tall at 6’3” with a 78-inch reach, he at least has some of the physical dimensions to make moving up to heavyweight so easy. While not nearly as robust as some heavyweights, he is not dwarfed and has the length to make it so his technical acumen can stick. It’s really becoming difficult to find reasons to bet against Usyk, as he has gone on this dominant streak. He won all the belts at cruiserweight and took over at heavyweight with ease that few would have been able to forecast.

That brings us to Dubois. Tall at 6’5” with the same 78-inch reach as Usyk, the former English amateur standout turned pro at 19 and quickly established himself as a top prospect. At 15-0, he was matched with countryman Joe Joyce, getting stopped in the tenth round. He has since rebounded with four straight wins. Part of the reason he booked this opportunity was based on his wins over Trevor Bryan and highly-rated Kevin Lerena, another cruiserweight-turned-heavyweight. In that fight, Dubois was on the floor three times in the first round before stopping Lerena in the third round of a firefight. It was in defense of his “WBA belt” he won from Trevor Bryan in his previous fight, a world title claim that has gotten no traction with Usyk and Fury, the clear top dogs in the division.

This is not an effort to denigrate Dubois. He’s really a big guy who can move. All but one of his wins are by KO, and he has lost but one time. It’s just that he’s going against a technical marvel, a guy that is very difficult to fight, much less thrive against. But you can’t just blow off a big 25-year-old guy with power and know-how. His fights seem to draw a lot of action. You’d think the masterful Usyk could avoid being drawn into a firefight, but with fighters like Dubois, sometimes it can’t be helped. Maybe the challenger is one of those fighters who makes for chaotic fights.

It’s just when comparing Usyk’s resume, where he ran through the entirety of the cruiserweight division before beating Joshua twice, Dubois’ body of work looks so sparse. With his best wins over Trevor Bryan and Kevin Lerena, there’s nothing Dubois has done that would even crack Usyk’s top ten accomplishments in pro boxing. Ideally, you’d have liked to see Dubois avenge the loss to Joyce or at least beat a dangerous contender to confirm his status. Instead, he temporarily has become the WBA’s darling and has taken that route.

While not a puncher at heavyweight, Usyk can be hurtful. Even robust Anthony Joshua has felt the pain of being on the receiving end of Usyk’s accuracy and relentlessness. It might not often be where Usyk’s power will decide fights. But we can’t help but notice that Dubois goes down a lot. Joyce battered him up pretty good, and even smallish fringe-contender Lerena had him on the canvas repeatedly. And while Dubois might be catching a break by not taking on a top heavyweight known for power, I’m not so sure his chin will be safe.

If one is inclined to take +600 on a decade-younger bigger man to win, I’ve seen worse bets. Dubois does seem to make it so his bigger fights are magnets for chaos. Usyk became 36 years old pretty quickly, so taking angles against him might make some sense. But strategically and matchup-wise, I fail to see a ton of optimism for the case of Dubois. I don’t think he has the technical savvy or strategic understanding to make it so he pairs well with the unbeaten champion. I see Usyk having his way and maybe even putting a few dents on the chin of Dubois for an inside-the-distance win.

My Prediction to Win the Fight:

I’m betting on Oleksandr Usyk at -1100 betting odds. The champion is a master of strategy and tactics. His opponent is big and dangerous, but not more than Anthony Joshua, who Usyk twice beat with room to spare. Add into the equation a questionable chin for Dubois, and Usyk’s routes to victory are too numerous.

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