Navarrete vs. Valdez 2: WBO Super Featherweight Prediction

Emanuel Navarrete (38-2-1, 31 KOs) vs. Oscar Valdez (32-2, 24 KOs)
When: Saturday, December 7, 2024
Where: Footprint Center, Phoenix, Arizona
TV: ESPN+
Weight Class: WBO Super Featherweight Championship

Betting Odds: Emanuel Navarrete (-260), Oscar Valdez (+190)—Odds by Bovada

Emanuel Navarrete and Oscar Valdez duke it out in Phoenix for the WBO 130-pound belt on December 7. This is a rematch from an August 2023 bout, when Navarrete defended this belt in a decision win over Valdez. But maybe Navarrete, since going 0-1-1, gives Valdez some hope. Valdez returned in March with a KO win over Liam Wilson, while Navarrete fought to a draw in another defense against Robson Conceicao before losing a split decision in an attempt to grab a lightweight belt to Denis Berinchyk in May.

Fight Analysis

Though around for a long time now, Navarrete is four years younger than Valdez, who is now 33. But since 2018, Navarrete has been on a breakneck pace, taking part in 14 title fights from junior featherweight all the way up to lightweight. And only in his last fight was anyone able to best him—with that being by split decision in a division where Navarrete probably bit off more than he can chew. Back at 130 pounds, he is in familiar waters, taking on a man he once beat.

Valdez is no spring chicken, but while he lost the first fight to Navarrete on paper by wide margins, it was a great fight where he did nothing to shame himself. While in many ways more-robust and a bigger puncher than Navarrete, the reigning champion is more-active, while also being deceptively savvy. He has the know-how that comes with such a condensed schedule of title fights. But Valdez holds some big wins in this division, as well. He showed a little over a year ago that he is still a dangerous proposition for everyone at 130 pounds, including Navarrete. And when he was able to zero in with punches, they were able to count. He looks for more of that in this fight.

Navarrete looks to get back to where he was against a familiar face. I think the general view is that if Valdez isn’t a little past it, he’s getting there. And maybe the same applies to Navarrete. While he isn’t as weak defensively as some think, he has taken a lot of blows and could be getting a bit ripe himself. Stylistically, he still offers some challenges to Valdez. He’s rangier, able to use movement that forces Valdez to move around a lot before he can get set to launch his own offense. He has a certain angular quality, where he bends and twists to avoid punches or reduce their impact. While on the surface, he looks to be a prototypical Mexican brawler, there are a lot of different wrinkles to his game. And it’s all bolstered by an indefatigable warrior spirit.

Both men are good punchers, but each is very durable. The first fight was tough for Valdez, as he developed swelling around the eyes from the punching volume of Navarrete, which was a major problem. That’s not something that gets better over time, and in another fight that figures to go some rounds, that’s something that could very well become a factor. I’m afraid Valdez isn’t quite as shifty as he used to be, and while his offense still has that same bounce, he doesn’t move as well as he used to. Against Navarrete in the first fight, he made the champion look like the more clever practitioner, whereas he’s normally the more calculating and mobile battler. He can’t be put in the role of stationary target, reduced to attempting to corner Navarrete to unleash hurtful volleys. His work will need to be more complete, and he’s going to have to find a way to avoid getting that right eye all mashed up.

I think whatever shortcomings Valdez has shown recently can be made up for by his urgency. An underrated fighter in some ways, this is really it for him, as another loss with another war on his odometer would just make a comeback seem so undesirable. I think that urgency will resonate, and he’s a fighter who can rise to the occasion, his underdog clinic against Miguel Berchelt coming to mind.

While not a mover, Navarrete can accentuate his length advantage by utilizing movement and making the most out of his reach and his ability to maintain a high punch-volume even from long range. He saw how well it worked in the first fight, and while Valdez knows what he’s up against this time and can adjust to some degree, some of these things don’t get better with added mileage and age.

While Valdez has thrived against a top-end fighter with a come-hither approach like Berchelt, against guys like Shakur Stevenson and to a lesser degree Navarrete, things didn’t come so easy for the former Olympian. It seems odd to say that about a guy like Navarrete, who is known for brawling and has moved up in weight through the years, but his high-energy approach with an emphasis on movement and distance was good enough the first time around to control the fight in long stretches.

I don’t doubt that betting against an urgent Valdez with his back against the wall is a dicey proposition. His skills have long been overlooked, but I think he has come to a point where he’s not the bankable proposition he once was. One possible angle in his favor is that maybe Navarrete isn’t at his peak anymore and that between that and some desperation in Valdez’ approach, maybe he can bridge the gap. And it’s a gap that’s smaller than what the scorecards indicated the first time. I still see Navarrete throwing a ton of punches and busting Valdez up, with the former champion a half-step behind more often than not. I’m taking Navarrete in this one.

My Prediction to Win the Fight:
I’m betting on Emanuel Navarrete at -260 betting odds. These two should again make for a tough fight high on entertainment-value, if not necessarily being ultra-competitive. I see Navarrete’s length, movement, and volume being enough to make for another hard night for Valdez, with Navarrete getting the nod.