Mike Tyson vs. Jake Paul Fight Odds, Analysis, & Predictions

Mike Tyson (50-6, 44 KOs) vs. Jake Paul (9-1, 6 KOs)
When: Saturday, Nov 15th, 2024
Where: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas
TV: PPV
Weight Class: Heavyweights: 8 Rounds

Betting Odds: Mike Tyson (+150), Jake Paul (-195)—Odds by Bovada

Fight Analysis:

Mike Tyson will take on Jake Paul in an 8-round boxing match at AT&T Stadium in Arlington on November 15th. It has been reported that this will not be an exhibition but an actual sanctioned boxing match, despite some amended rules. Tyson is bigger and obviously on a different level than Paul when it comes to prestige in this sport. But Tyson will be 58 by fight night, 31 years older than the 27-year-old Paul. Is that too much to overcome?

With fights of this nature, we don’t have the data to do a straightforward handicapping of a fight. We have yet to see a ton of former greats pushing 60, taking on a fighter in their twenties before. The sheer dichotomy of each combatant creates a stark discrepancy—an esteemed former heavyweight champion against a gimmicky type of boxer. But a lot of things narrow that down to the point where Paul is actually the betting favorite.

There are certain realities that seem to impact everyone, and age is the main one. A brief mental review of sports since its inception fails to reveal a ton of men in their late fifties doing great things. There are reasons for that. And Tyson might get pumped up with various substances for all we know, but it won’t altogether mask his advanced age. The exhibition with Roy Jones several years ago was useful in showing Mike can still get in shape, get in the ring, and look pretty good. But let’s face it, Roy Jones is as shot as it gets, and the exhibition was really a glorified hard workout in many ways.

I fully understand the urge to look at the fight like on one hand you have Mike Tyson, on the other you have Jake Paul—enough said. There is no doubt that the contrast of where each man stands on the fulcrum of boxing history is drastic. But whatever sport you discuss, being 30 years younger can render a lot of other things moot. And that’s even with acknowledging the jive nature of Paul’s boxing career, where he has picked on non-boxers, losing his only fight against the first real guy he fought in Tommy Fury.

Even taking Tyson’s life-turnaround to heart, it’s hard to imagine he’s better now than he was 20 years ago when he was losing in the ring to the likes of Danny Williams and Kevin McBride. With Tyson, he was able to thrive pretty well into the late nineties but has really been a fighter on a decline since 1989, going from what seemed like the most unbeatable heavyweight ever to getting slightly worse with each passing year. By the time he hung it up for good in 2005, he really wasn’t the same guy anymore at all—a shell of a once-great fighter. So, what does this all look like 20 years later? Am I crazy for thinking it can’t look too good?

A few things Tyson has going for him in this fight could help. One is he is a lot bigger. Paul might be a bit taller, but as a cruiserweight, he lacks the girth and physical strength of the compactly-built Tyson. Point blank—Tyson is simply the bigger man. And there’s a certain pride that comes with being an esteemed former heavyweight champion. How that manifests in a fight is iffy, but I think it should at least ensure good preparation and a positive mindset entering this fight.

I’m a bit concerned that Tyson could be vulnerable to movement. That offense he has takes a lot of energy. Once he starts rearing up, an opponent can employ movement, which would force Tyson to cover a lot of ground and expend a lot of energy with that still-frenetic offense with all the movement. I’m not sure Paul is that educated of a boxer to employ a sensible strategy like that, where he moves a lot and tries to land counters on an advancing Tyson, but something like that could work.

Granted, a lot of the power we’ve seen from Paul has occurred against non-boxers or, more specifically, spent forces from the world of MMA. The thing is at 58, what is one’s true level of punch-resistance? And that doesn’t just come down to whether Tyson can avoid getting knocked out, but might he show less fire after getting tagged good a couple of times?

I don’t really believe that a position against Tyson needs to be accompanied by some grand notions about Paul as a fighter. But how many former heavyweight champions of the past would you have fancied against even the most fringe of cruiserweight contenders as they approached their 60th birthday? It’s not so much about Paul. It’s about the level he represents and whether a former great like Tyson can reach even that level two decades removed from being active. It’s about whether a guy who was getting stopped by Danny Williams and Kevin McBride twenty years ago after a long career can compete with a halfway-viable pro.

It’s impossible to know all the wrinkles behind what is really a novelty fight. It being fought with 14-ounce gloves over an eight-round distance with two-minute rounds gives Tyson some relief perhaps. And with this being a fight like this, who’s really to say if something isn’t being orchestrated or if there’s some stuff we’re not privy to behind the scenes? It seems like a lot of this is motivated by money and not really the idea of doing well in the sport of boxing. It’s a fight without any actual boxing ramifications, but is still being held in Arlington Stadium. It’s about the dollar.

If forced to evaluate this from a straightforward fighting perspective, I would hope to be wrong. And out of respect, I’d almost rather bet Tyson and go against what I think will occur. And maybe for a moment, he can recapture the essence of being Mike Tyson and overwhelm a smaller relative late starter to the sport in Paul. I just think people not liking the idea of an online celebrity fighting in high-profile spots, a general distaste for Paul, and the love for Mike Tyson has some people delusionally-optimistic about the prospects of the former heavyweight champion. I’m going to go with Paul to win.

My Prediction to Win the Fight:
I’m betting on Jake Paul at -195 betting odds. I think this Bovada number has a chance to dip with some casual money coming in on Tyson, but I think it’s the prudent move. Tyson can still move pretty well, but against a youthful guy who isn’t an altogether pushover, it’s just an uphill battle for a man his age, as much as part of me wants to be wrong.

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