Jake Paul vs. Nate Diaz Betting Prediction & Fight Analysis

Jake Paul (6-1, 4 KOs) vs. Nate Diaz (Pro Boxing Debut)

When: Saturday, August 5, 2023

Where: American Airlines Center, Dallas, Texas

TV: PPV

Weight Class: Cruiserweights: 8 Rounds

Betting Odds: Jake Paul (-310), Nate Diaz (+240)—Bovada (You can bet the fight in progress there!)

Fight Analysis:

Jake Paul and Nate Diaz battle in an 8-round cruiserweight battle from Dallas on August 5. It’s a bit unusual when there is this much interest in a 6-1 fighter taking on a 38-year-old making his pro debut, but one must delve under the surface a bit in this one. Paul has created a bit of a sensation with his YouTube/pro boxing hybrid career, which has seen him score some big wins. In his first fight against a real boxer in his last outing, Paul lost a split decision to Tommy Fury. He now returns to facing non-boxers but will still be taking on a decorated MMA fighter in Diaz.

In a way, we’ve seen this happen before, with Paul scoring wins over MMA luminaries Ben Askren, Tyron Woodley, and Anderson Silva. With Diaz, 12 years older than Paul, we have a similar opponent in that he’s an aging MMA fighter trying a new sport for the first time while not exactly on a winning roll in their prior sport. And while he did beat the shot Tony Ferguson in his last UFC fight, Diaz has seen diminishing returns lately in the octagon. This is an arena where we’ve seen Paul already thrive, taking on guys who have strong reputations as fighters but ones who are still unaccustomed to pro boxing while giving up deficits in size and age, to boot.

In Diaz’ favor is a fierce sense of pride. This probably means something to him, and he doesn’t want to get beat by this kid. We saw him rise to the occasion to shut the mouth of Conor McGregor years ago, and he is a fighter who can be fueled by that kind of motivation. And sure, you don’t want to pick a fighter on the basis of him not wanting to look bad in front of his boys, but with Diaz, I wouldn’t be looking at it like he is just here to pick up a payday as he makes his exit from the fighting business, as might have been the case with a few other Paul victims.

While Paul has done well to transform from a famous streamer to a serviceable boxer, Diaz is just the guy who seems more like a real fighter. With his older brother, a former prominent UFC talent, he has been at this for a long time, participating in high-level competition since Paul was a small child. He also projects himself as a guy who has some fighting experience on the street. He isn’t a stranger to using his hands, and while a gifted fighter on the ground, he has always been known for having some of the better hands in the divisions in which he was competing.

We will see if Diaz’s hands translate to this arena. Against less-versed fighters in the UFC, Diaz would sometimes control stretches with his fluid throwing of punches. One wonders if that will work in this elevated context. For all of Paul’s faults and the fact that he lost to the first real boxer he fought, he still represents what would be considered a very difficult entrance exam for any debuting pro boxer, barring some kind of amateur marvel. And while Diaz has good hands, we never really saw him dig in with power shots but opt for a more fluid and steadier one-speed flow of shots.

In a weird way, Paul’s loss can be taken as some sort of proof in his favor that he belongs. Fury is a decent-enough prospect, and to take him to a split decision gives him some boxing cred he didn’t really earn in his other outings. He doesn’t evaporate when hit. He can deal with adversity. He has good size, solid skills, and can bang a little bit with that right hand. One wonders if his youth, energy, size, and power might be too much for Diaz. He can create some menace when he zeroes in with that right hand. And with Diaz having done his best work at 155-170 pounds, he will be the smaller man. It’s an uphill battle for the former UFC standout in many different areas.

The winning case for Diaz seems vaguer. He just comes across as more of a fighter. He’s more of a natural, and when it comes to talent in the fighting business, he wins that contest too. And it’s not that those things don’t count or can’t be enough to get him over the hump against a guy in Paul who is not great. But Diaz is also being forced to overcome a lot. Nice hands or not, 38 is no age to start pro boxing. The power of youth can’t be overstated in this sport. While he can string punches together nicely, I wonder if Diaz has the punching power to trouble a much bigger guy.

Perhaps Diaz will be rejuvenated with the newness of this task, as he did appear to grow a bit stale in the latter stages of his UFC tenure. I still can’t help but think that his expiration date has maybe sailed by a bit and that it’s maybe not the ideal time to try a new sport in what is a pretty tough matchup against a bigger and harder-hitting opponent. With no disrespect to Diaz, as he would rout Paul if this were in the octagon, I just don’t see this going his way. I’m going with Jake Paul.

My Prediction to Win the Fight:

I’m betting on Jake Paul at -310 betting odds. I feel this is where Paul is in his wheelhouse, taking on non-boxers who are also dealing with disadvantages in size and age. While hardly infallible, this is nevertheless a context in which Paul can continue to thrive. Bet your boxing picks for FREE this month by scoring a 100% real cash bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $300 simply by entering bonus promo code PREDICT100 after you’ve made your first deposit at MyBookie Sportsbook!