Emanuel Navarrete vs. Oscar Valdez Predictions

Emanuel Navarrete (37-1, 31 KOs) vs. Oscar Valdez (31-1, 23 KOs)
When: Saturday, August 12, 2023
Where: Desert Diamond Arena, Glendale, Arizona
TV: ESPN
Weight Class: WBO Super Featherweight Title: 12 Rounds

Emanuel Navarrete (+120), Oscar Valdez (-155)—Odds by Bovada

Fight Analysis:

Emanuel Navarrete defends his WBO 130-pound title against former champion Oscar Valdez in Arizona on August 12. The winner of this fight sets himself up for some big-money opportunities in the super featherweight class. Navarrete, 28, is on a massive 32-fight win streak, and he has won titles in three different weight classes, just annexing the vacant WBO 130-pound belt in his last fight in February. Valdez, four years older at 32, also has a nice championship resumé of which he can boast, but is still trying to get back to where he was before he lost to Shakur Stevenson last year. A win over Navarrete would certainly do the trick.

It’s hard to not like Navarrete. In an age where champions are on the shelf for indefinite periods of time, Navarrete has been very active, staying in the forefront of the minds of fans. He fights very hard, and his skill has held up as he moves up in weight. Some, however, feel that he might have hit his ceiling at 130 pounds. At 122 and even at 126 pounds, his power was a big part of his winning formula. We will see if he still has the punching power to keep guys like Valdez off of him. Say what you will about Valdez, how he’s getting up there, and how he was made to look impotent against Stevenson, but this is a stylistic matchup that should be more to his liking.

Valdez won’t have to go looking for Navarrete as he did with Stevenson. Sure, a prodigious boxer like Stevenson might be all wrong for Valdez, but that really does little to impugn his capability to hang in there with a come-hither slugger like Navarrete. We saw it when he vanquished heavily-favored Miguel Berchelt a few years ago. When a fighter comes to Valdez, we see the former Olympian able to brawl more effectively, while also standing out with his multi-faceted skills, as Valdez can also box well, something his extensive amateur background would suggest. Granted, Valdez moved up from featherweight to 130 pounds not too long ago, but he is at least the slightly more-robust fighter and more acclimated to the deep waters at super featherweight.

A lot of different things are converging in this fight that make an analysis difficult. With Navarrete, you have an extreme amount of momentum built up through a massive win streak that encompasses titles in three different weight classes. His career trajectory is more appealing, that of an active and winning champion. The current status of Valdez is a little more up in the air, with the pinnacle being the stoppage win over Berchelt in February ’21. Since then, he has lost only one fight, but it’s not just the loss. It’s how he failed to build on the inertia he built, became more inactive, and only had one big fight in the last nearly four years following his career-best win, a bad matchup fight he didn’t come all that close to winning.

Still, Valdez has been in there with the better company. Out of the top five wins between the two men, Valdez might have all of them. He is older, and his career isn’t as hot as Navarrete’s, but he’s more-proven to be able to hurt top guys at 130 pounds. He has shown he can deliver when the lights are at their brightest. His career is on the line, as a loss is harder for a lighter-weight fighter to absorb at 32 then it is at 28. And for those who used things like career-trajectory to pick against Valdez have felt what it’s like to see that analysis fall short.

While a younger fighter like Navarrete typically will put on weight, and going from 122 to 130 is not earth-shattering on paper, he might be riding a fine line. His volume punching translated so well at 122 and 126 because, while not a one-punch KO guy, his power was enough to earn respect and dissuade foes. Most of his knockout wins are a result of accumulation. And now he’s going against a guy who has taken on good punchers at 130 pounds without adverse effect. The fear for backers of Navarrete should be whether he can generate enough menace to put Valdez on the defensive. If his volume isn’t enough to repel Valdez, then Navarrete will be fed a steady diet of shots from one of the best boxer-punchers at or around this weight.

Still, I’m not so sure Navarrete has met his match just yet. Valdez certainly represents the upper-reaches of Navarrete’s third weight class, but I think it’s a doable task. The shots of Valdez could resound greater when both men let their hands go, which seems like an inevitability. It’s not so much the creativity of Navarette, but his variety, doggedness, and volume that I feel rates him at least a toss-up proposition in this fight. And Navarrete coming out on top just seems like the more-plausible storyline in terms of plot development. It’s been a slow and steady climb, both up the ladders of competition and weight. And here is where the crescendo takes place, in a fight that is a tall order but a winnable spot nonetheless. I’m going to go with Emanuel “Vaquero” Navarrete to spring the mild upset.

My Prediction to Win the Fight:
I’m betting on Emanuel Navarrete at +120 betting odds. He is the more active and perhaps the fresher fighter, something that could come into play in what figures to be a long and draining battle.