Benavidez vs. Morrell: Fight Prediction & Betting Analysis

David Benavidez (29-0, 24 KOs) vs. David Morrell (11-0, 9 KOs)

When: Saturday, February 1, 2025

Where: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada

TV: PPV

Weight Class: Light Heavyweight

Betting Odds: David Benavidez (-185), David Morrell (+140)

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Unbeaten David Benavidez and David Morrell will duke it out in a big light heavyweight 12-rounder in Las Vegas on February 1. With top light heavyweights Artur Beterbiev and Dmitry Bivol in the midst of their series, these other unbeaten light heavies wisely decided they needed to do something compelling, hence this battle of unbeaten and highly-regarded fighters. Benavidez, a year older at 28, is coming off a nice light heavyweight win over Oleksandr Gvozdyk in June. Morrell, meanwhile, last fought in August, decisioning Radivoje Kalajdzic over 12 rounds. Both formerly 168-pounders, they both moved up recently with this being their second title fights at this weight. Let’s break it down!

Fight Analysis:

The unique way in which each of these fighters arrived at this point speaks to their qualities. The Phoenix-based Benavidez turned pro at the tender age of 16, fighting in Mexico until he was of age to fight in the USA. It didn’t take long for him to make his way up the ranks, and by 20, he had won a title at 168 pounds. Between some outside-the-ring stuff and a difficulty in getting good opponents, Benavidez’ career cooled down a bit. A long-sought bout with Canelo Alvarez never materialized, and opportunities at 168 pounds had dried up to some extent. He was still winning and unbeaten but stalled out some. In his last three fights, with wins over Caleb Plant, Demetrius Andrade, and Gvozdyk, he has seen his career come alive a bit, culminating in what looks to be a titanic battle against Morrell.

Morrell matches up well physically with Benavidez, maybe even being a touch longer at 6’1″ with a spidery 77-inch reach. A decorated amateur from the demanding Cuban system, he came to America and was turned pro in 2019. Already a polished product based on his deep amateur pedigree, he was put on the fast track, winning a version of the championship at 168 pounds in just his third fight, becoming the WBA champion, and making six defenses.

I think there is a pretty clear discrepancy in the quality of opposition between the two men. Not that every guy Benavidez has beaten is a killer. It hasn’t been easy for his team to get great fights. For a guy who won the belt at 20 and is closing in on 30, his overall resume isn’t that great. Still, Morrell is an 11-fight pro. He’s been impressive and, in some cases, utterly destructive. But in that WBA bubble, he’s been insulated a bit, taking on a lot of good fighters but no one who really stands out. If looking to list the best six wins between these two in terms of quality, all six would belong to Benavidez.

Morrell is certainly an educated fighter, but with this leap up in class comes new challenges. Benavidez, a pro since 16, is a lot slicker than some people assume. He’s an old, crafty pro before he is even old. His offense is varied, as opponents don’t really know what to look for. He throws a lot of punches and can even smother his foes with offense, but he doesn’t waste shots. His punches land at a very high frequency, and when opponents seek their own offense, he makes them pay with fast, crisp shots that add up and do a lot of damage.

Morrell is very slick, a flashy fighter who can do a lot of different things. But the gap in quality of who he has fought in relation to who he is fighting now is pretty substantial. Morrell has been accustomed to fighting in a way that is going to be good enough for who he is going against. And so far, no one has made him pay. But while he is strong and exceedingly dangerous and ambitious, there are holes in his game that a more expert and lethal fighter like Benavidez can well exploit. And whether it’s Morrell dropping his hands when going to the body or not moving the right way after unloading a combo, this is where he could start to pay for some of those holes in his game. I’ll be interested in seeing if that high guard he hides behind at times when in close isn’t something the versatile Benavidez can exploit.

Still, Morrell is a man with options. His feet are really fantastic, and one of the main challenges for Benavidez will be to avoid getting out-maneuvered by the more nimble Morrell. He can fight with nearly equal effectiveness from the outside, as well as the inside, with the feet and pivoting ability to change on a dime. In any fight, he’s a threat to dictate tempo with his movement and athleticism. He has a lot of dexterity and can move and bend freely; a very slippery guy to fight at times. But then he’s also a guy who can zero in and go into assassin mode. He can take on a lot of different and even contrasting styles within the same sequence.

For Benavidez, the challenge might be to not let Morrell lead in the dance. He needs to come out and work behind his jab and start sticking it to Morrell right away. If he lays back and assesses too long, he might find himself reacting to Morrell and letting him lead the way, where he’s the dutiful straight-man to Morrell’s brilliance. This might be the essence of who wins this fight, and if I were backing Benavidez, it’d be my biggest concern. While Benavidez is slick and crafty in his own right, Morrell represents a package of versatility and athleticism that maybe Benavidez can’t match if the battle unfolds along those lines.

Other than having an overall athletic edge, Morrell just doesn’t check enough boxes along boxing-specific lines to make him a pick I’m comfortable taking. I think Benavidez represents a level of opposition so beyond what Morrell has seen that Morrell won’t be able to consume all the different reality sandwiches that will be fed to him on this night without folding. I like Benavidez in this one.

My Prediction to Win the Fight:

I’m betting on David Benavidez at -185 betting odds. Morrell looks the part and is a talented fighter, but Benavidez is a crafty and punishing fighter to face, a slick champion that might not be the best guy to take a chance on when jumping in class as much as Morrell is.

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