Artur Beterbiev vs. Dmitry Bivol: Betting Picks & Fight Analysis 2/22/25

Artur Beterbiev (21-0, 20 KOs) vs. Dmitry Bivol (23-1, 12 KOs)
When: Saturday, February 22, 2005
Where: Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
TV: PPV
Weight Class: World Light Heavyweight Championship
Betting Odds: Artur Beterbiev (-130), Dmitry Bivol (Even)
Artur Beterbiev and Dmitry Bivol will fight in a rematch on February 25 in Riyadh with the undisputed light heavyweight title at stake. In October in this same city, these two undefeated champions engaged in a high-level boxing match with Beterbiev eking out a debatable majority decision. In this pairing, you have two of the more esteemed light heavyweights in recent years—both longtime standouts as amateurs who have accomplished just about all you can in the amateur and pro ranks. The last fight was Bivol’s first loss and despite pushing 40, it was the first time the unbeaten Beterbiev ever had to go the distance.

Fight Analysis:

The turnaround on this fight is pretty rapid by modern standards, with the first fight having taken place in October. Bivol, a bit ripe at 34 but still younger than Beterbiev, is a little taller and more geared to a cunning boxing style. He likes to work behind the jab with crisp movement and straight punches. It is a nice counterpoint to the KO-puncher Beterbiev, who is more aggressive, but hardly your prototypical come-hither brawler. He is also a gifted boxer with a lot of tricks, great feet, a good jab, and a lot of wrinkles within a dangerous power-punching package.

It still seemed that while Beterbiev pressed the action and had some success, he was flummoxed to some degree by the nimble Bivol. His energy and skills had him in the fight, but it appeared Bivol may have been unlucky with the judges, where maybe a draw or a slight edge for Bivol seemed to be the right call. He was able to outbox Beterbiev in stretches, even rattling him once or twice. In return, most of the power punches from Beterbiev were neutralized, and maybe he got more credit for the effort than for the actual execution.

Bivol is a real thoroughbred, as Canelo Alvarez well found out in their bout, a decision so lopsided the judges couldn’t swing it in Alvarez’ favor. He has stamina for days, his legs get him to where he wants to go, and he’s as well-schooled and disciplined as any 175-pounder in recent memory. It may come across less in this spot sharing the ring with a man who has some of Bivol’s same attributes in terms of amateur background and just overall status. And while Beterbiev’s style is different, the impeccable level of skill each man has can sometimes cancel each other out when in the ring at the same time.

Fans and bettors alike should expect more of the same—a bout fought at the highest levels with little to separate each man. When thinking of adjustments each man could make or things that could unfold differently, the possibilities are many. Maybe Bivol stands his ground a little less and uses his length and jab more. But what if Beterbiev’s power shots start connecting at a higher rate? When fighting a guy like Beterbiev, the margin for error is small. The damage he does can be deceiving. Even if it appeared Bivol did a great job of circumventing some real telling blows from Beterbiev, there were still times in the fight where he looked a bit ragged with Beterbiev moving his heavy hands.

Again, looking at this as a boxer vs. slugger matchup leaves a lot on the table when breaking down a fight with these two complex battlers. Beterbiev is too good to let someone peck away at long-range without paying the price. And fighting Bivol is a heck of a lot more punishing than facing your typical jabber/mover. They’re both so innate that it can be hard to see, as each is working to nullify the other’s assets. The result is a pleasing boxing match fought at the highest levels, more so than an unhinged fight with wild swings of fortune. Their first fight was a very good fight, but just in a different way. Whether it unfolds in a very similar way within that framework is a mystery, but the context itself figures to remain the same.

Not to insinuate foul play, but being that Beterbiev winning the first fight was a minority opinion, maybe looking at this pairing from the perspective of a story isn’t so crazy. Perhaps the big-wigs in Riyadh envision a trilogy between two supreme fighters in their homeland as they boost their stature in the sport as a premier locale. And it’s not like it’s going to take a lot of manipulation anyway, with Bivol winning a decision, which is a somewhat likely outcome that sets up the third fight.

Putting those potential machinations to the side, I think things set up well for Bivol. I think he will get a little urgency-bump from having lost the first fight and give that much of a stronger effort. Picking against an unbeaten fighter like Beterbiev, who just got pushed to the distance for the first time, seems counterintuitive. And if he starts zeroing in with those cinder blocks at some point, Bivol is going to be up against it in a big way. I just sense that Bivol can navigate his way through this and edge a decision. I’m taking Dmitry Bivol.

 

My Prediction to Win the Fight:
I’m betting on Dmitry Bivol at even betting odds. I think he won the first time, however narrow it may have been. With a little extra edge stemming from that, I suspect he gets over the hump this time, as getting two gratuitous decisions could be asking too much for Beterbiev.