Artur Beterbiev vs. Dmitri Bivol Title Fight Prediction
Artur Beterbiev (20-0, 20 KOs) vs. Dmitri Bivol (22-0, 11 KOs)
When: Saturday, October 12, 2024
Where: Kingdom Arena, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
TV: PPV
Weight Class: Light Heavyweight Title
Betting Odds: Artur Beterbiev (-115), Dmitri Bivol (-115)—Odds from MyBookie Sportsbook: Home of the 100% bonus up to $300!
Fight Analysis
Artur Beterbiev will battle Dmitri Bivol for the light heavyweight title on June 1 at Kingdom Arena in Riyadh. One is hard-pressed to recall a light heavyweight fight with as much importance as this. You have Beterbiev, boasting his 100% KO rate, taking on a supreme boxer in Bivol, also undefeated and at his peak. The winner of this will have a legacy-building win of the highest order. There is a lot to break down, so let’s see who we should get behind in this light heavyweight superfight.
It’s a fight that really makes sense, with neither getting opponents very easily, as top fighters are reluctant to fight either man. Beterviev won the linear title in 2019, since having five defenses, but struggling to attract better more marquee opposition, his all-KO record likely being a deterrent. Bivol, meanwhile, has fought twice since scoring his signature win over Canelo Alvarez in May ’22, scoring two easy decision wins.
Both are nearly the same size at six feet, with Beterbiev having an inch advantage in reach. Beterbiev is pretty advanced in age at 39, six years older than Bivol. The Dagestan-born Beterbiev got a late start to his pro career, which followed a long and high-level amateur career. He’s older, but has shown no signs of slowing down, scoring a nice KO win over a good fighter in Callum Smith in his last fight earlier this year.
Classifying this bout along the lines of a slugger vs. boxer matchup could be oversimplifying the equation. Both men are advanced ring-practitioners with skills that surpass that standard grouping. But when one fighter is knocking everyone out and his opponent has a 50% KO rate, it’s not hard to arrive at that analysis. And while calling Beterbiev a come-forward slugger and Bivol a jab-first mover leaves out a lot of important details, I’m not sure it’s an altogether faulty way of perceiving how this fight will play out in the ring.
While wins over Callum Smith and Oleksandr Gvozdyk are nice and Beterbiev’s lack of big names on his ledger is no fault of his own, Bivol has been tested to a higher degree. And sure, that edge is basically reduced to one single fight where one might be able to poke holes in it with Canelo Alvarez not really being a true light heavyweight. It’s a big part of Bivol’s reputation and could be misleading in that beating Canelo and Beterbiev are two different things altogether. Still, it shows that when the spotlight is on him in a high-stakes fight a lot of people are watching, he can deliver in a big way. Despite pushing 40 and having a high level amateur/pro career that stretches back two decades, Beterbiev has yet to see those kinds of spots.
That doesn’t mean he isn’t a massive handful, even for a boxer of the quality of Bivol—a cunning, sharp, and accurate boxer with toughness and stamina for days. Beterbiev is looking to hurt you, but without the recklessness you associate with most brawlers. He is relentless, but it’s powered by extraordinary balance and some of the best feet seen at 175 pounds. He is seldom out of position and while other fighters flip between being on and off-balance, Beterbiev is always organized enough to launch an assault. Opponents attempt to use movement to get out of harm’s way and Beterbiev is immediately on top of them in great position to continue doing good work. And his punches have this undeniable heavy-handedness to it, accompanied by precise accuracy that allows Beterbiev to put the shots right where he wants to place them.
With Bivol, however, you have a real thoroughbred in the ring. His legs and athleticism should provide Beterbiev with a new look with his quick in-and-out style, along with his unpredictability. He likes to work at range with an active and accurate lead hand, also knowing how to unleash combos when the time is right. In many ways, he’s the perfect combination of that old Soviet-style amateur emphasis on technical proficiency, along with some more-American wrinkles he has picked up along the way.
I think defensively, Bivol’s style and emphasis on not getting hit just makes him the better fighter in that area. Not that Beterbiev can’t do damage with his hard jab and box with Bivol with all his experience, but he is the more hittable fighter. It hasn’t cost him before and one would think that maybe with Bivol not being a KO puncher, he can overcome that deficiency in this fight. Maybe so. But that left hand is important for Bivol and if he can zero in on some of Beterbiev’s openings, it’s one way he can start to get an edge.
It’s a fight where no case can be easily made, as each undefeated fighter seems tremendously difficult to beat. One should brace for a competitive fight. I envision a punishing night for Bivol, where he will have to dig deep. I just have a harder time seeing Beterbiev getting through all the shots Bivol is throwing to the point where he’s in a position to successfully sustain his offense in an ongoing way. He will have his moments and those will be difficult for Bivol to endure. I just see Bivol able to execute a plan where he generates more success round-for-round, using his speed, agility, and toughness to nose out enough rounds for a decision win.
My Prediction to Win the Fight:
I’m betting on Dmitri Bivol at -115 betting odds. No one has escaped Beterbiev’s power yet, but if Bivol can establish some range and use that great left hand to stay a step ahead of Beterbiev, it won’t be easy to expose Bivol to the same sustained offensive grind Beterbiev is accustomed to inflicting on his foes.
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