Artur Beterbiev vs. Callum Smith Pick: World Light Heavyweight Championship
Artur Beterbiev (19-0, 19 KOs) vs. Callum Smith (29-1, 21 KOs)
When: Friday, January 13, 2024
Where: Centre Videotron, Quebec City, Quebec
TV: Sky Sports/NOW TV
Weight Class: World Light Heavyweight Championship
Betting Odds: Artur Beterbiev (-485), Callum Smith (+320)—Odds by Bovada
Fight Analysis:
Artur Beterbiev defends his light heavyweight title against top challenger Callum Smith on January 13 in Quebec. It’s a bit of a strange locale for a fight between a Dagestan-born champ in Beterbiev and the Liverpool-based Smith, but fans should expect a nice one in this light heavyweight title battle. Beterbiev, almost 39, might be getting up there, but he still touts that 100% KO ratio, with a handful of nice wins that have him at the top of the division. Smith, 33, however, is a once-beaten former champ with size and skills who can’t be overlooked. Who should we get behind in this 175-pound championship tilt from Quebec City?
Neither man’s recent work is very voluminous. Beterbiev, with precious little time remaining in his prime, has fought four times since scoring his best win against Oleksandr Gvozdyk in October 2019, his last fight being an 8th-round KO over hard-hitting challenger Anthony Yarde in January of ’23. He will have been out for a year by the time he climbs into the ring for this bout. He might be OK in this situation due to the recent work of his opponent in this case.
Smith had that big fight against Canelo in December 2020, dropping a decision but getting a nice payday and not disgracing himself. If he had gotten back to the grindstone and started stringing together wins and getting himself battle-tempered against the aging champion, it’d be one thing. But to fight twice since then, a total of 6 rounds, with his last bout being in August of ’22, just seems like such an unideal way to enter this fight. And for the 6’3” Smith to come into this on the heels of a nearly 18-month layoff is just horrible. If looking to not penalize him heavily for that, one could say he’s a veteran with a large background—a good amateur career followed by a lengthy pro career. He comes from a great fighting family, and maybe he can overcome the inactivity with his innate skills and know-how.
Smith is not without options in this fight. While he can fight on the inside well for a man as angular as he is, he does have considerable length advantages entering this bout, with three inches in height and about half a foot of reach. Smith has looked pretty lethal in his two fights at light heavyweight since losing to Canelo, scoring a pair of KOs, albeit at a lower level than this and spread out over the course of three years. It will only be his third fight at light heavyweight, taking on a supreme 175-pounder who has been at this weight for years and years.
Smith might have an advantage in the fact that Beterbiev has been having things come easy. Not that he didn’t beat any good fighters, but when a fighter is scoring KOs in every fight, good fighters at or around his weight prefer to take a less demanding route to a world title. It’s like the whole boxing world is waiting for Beterbiev to get old, and in the meanwhile, he hasn’t been able to draw the best opponents. With Smith, Beterbiev will be facing one of his toughest opponents—a winning fighter of some renown who hasn’t shown any real glaring weakness like other more recent Beterbiev foes.
Simply in the sense of trying to time the Beterbiev downturn, one can perhaps start justifying an underdog stance against the champion. And when that underdog is a highly-capable guy like Smith, who is facing an irreversible crossroads moment in his career, it’s not too hard to see the wisdom in it. Fighters don’t generally age like fine wine. With all the inactivity and the somewhat undemanding more recent spots we’ve seen the champion in, who’s to say some age and ring-wear don’t start manifesting?
It’s just not a very positive stance when a lot of what you’re hoping for is tied up in what the other fighter might do or not do. In a lot of ways, the idea of a version of Beterbiev that’s at close to top form taking it to Smith should be alarming to backers of the underdog. While he is long, Smith is not the most graceful mover in the ring, meaning there’s just more of him to hit. While not deficient in these areas, he’s not noted for defense, slickness, or movement. He’s not going to out-cute Beterbiev. And with Beterbiev having a vast top-level amateur career in addition to all his other work, he himself is a very educated boxer and a veteran whose experience belies his relatively skimpy 19-0 pro mark.
This is low-key a dangerous obstacle for the champion. His rise to the top consisted of wins over faded ex-champs. He scored some nice wins as champ, but his opponents always had some fatal flaw. Smith represents a higher grade. But when scanning the landscape for guys you’d consider picking against Beterbiev, you think of guys like Dmitry Bivol and maybe another guy or two who represent that absolute peak of the mountain. I think Callum Smith is below that level—good at almost everything, without that one standout trait or collection of skills necessary to thrive at this level. I see him giving Beterbiev some problems, with the imperturbable and steady champion eventually putting across enough punishment to dissuade the challenger. I’m taking Beterbiev.
My Prediction to Win the Fight:
I’m betting on Artur Beterbiev at -485 betting odds. While Smith offers challenges to the champion with his size, skills, and energy, he will have no answer for the power and the more-registering blows of the champion. The offense of the champion will resound with greater effect, as I see Beterbiev getting Smith out of there inside the distance.