Anthony Joshua vs. Daniel Dubois Betting Prediction: September 21, 2024
Anthony Joshua (28-3, 25 KOs) vs. Daniel Dubois (21-2, 20 KOs)
When: Saturday, September 21, 2024
Where: Wembley Stadium, London, England
TV: DAZN
Weight Class: IBF Heavyweight Title: 12 Rounds
Betting Odds: Anthony Joshua (-500), Daniel Dubois (+375)—Odds by Bovada
Anthony Joshua will battle Daniel Dubois on September 21 in Wembley Stadium. Dubois’ IBF title will be at stake, but more than that will be the opportunity to get into some of these big-money showdowns in the division. Not only is this a big fight in England, but the ramifications of this domestic heavyweight showdown will be felt throughout the division. Let’s break it down!
Fight Analysis
We are in the midst of a comeback for the former unbeaten champion Joshua, now 34. Following two losses to current heavyweight king Oleksandr Usyk, Joshua got back to work and has scored four straight wins, including a high-profile KO of Francis Ngannou in March. It is still quite a puzzle to work out where exactly Joshua stands at this point in his career. Is he still a reasonable facsimile of his former prime self or has time, defeat, and mileage cost him his edge?
On one hand, losing to Usyk can’t be held too hard against a fighter or the only worthwhile fighter in this division would be Usyk. And while Joshua lost to Andy Ruiz before, he avenged that defeat. He has also looked pretty good during many points in his last four wins, showing that despite the nature of the path that got him here, he is still a handful for anyone in this division.
At the same time, it’s hard to argue with those who feel Joshua is primed to be plucked. While he had a nice run and holds wins over top talent like Dillian Whyte, Wladimir Klitschko, Joseph Parker, and Ruiz, he never got to tangle with the likes of Fury or Wilder, and when put against a true elite guy, he clearly came up short twice. We’re conditioned not to think this story suddenly gets better, and now in his mid-thirties, it might not be a bad time to take an underdog position against the former champ.
We now turn our attention to the qualifications of Dubois. At 26, his youth checks out, as does his size at an ample 6’5” and usually around 240ish pounds. A former amateur of high standing, he was moving along nicely until losing to fellow Englishman Joe Joyce by a 10th-round KO in 2020. But still very young for a heavyweight, he rebounded and kept at it, stringing together four straight wins before coming up short against two-time Joshua conqueror Usyk by 9th-round KO. Subsequent KOs over Jerrell Miller and Filip Hrgovic, however, were huge wins and again have Dubois on the upswing.
Dubois seems to have improved. His last two wins were excellent. In addition, in his fight against Usyk, there was a sequence where he dropped the champ with what was ruled a low blow, with replays more inconclusive. Say what you will of Dubois, but there’s at least a sliver of credence to the notion that he is good enough to stop the guy who has cleaned out the upper reaches of the heavyweight division with a body shot. What that amounts to here is perhaps negligible, but when you look at that result, his two straight wins over well-regarded and unbeaten fighters, along with 20 KOs in 21 wins, the mind rightfully forms the image of Dubois as a dangerous man.
He’s going to need to be. Joshua is one of the more offensively-gifted fighters of this generation. He may not have been able to merge physicality into a strategic battle of tactics all that well with the masterful Usyk. But when not faced with a special combination of assets like what Usyk presents, it’s usually more than enough. He gets popping you with a thudding jab that can reach seemingly halfway across the ring, with the wrecking-ball right hand that, when it lands flush, is as true as they come. Dubois is not a renowned cutie in there, and while he has rounded off some of the more jagged edges of his game, he doesn’t fit the profile of someone you’d typically pick to beat Joshua.
But again, there was the Ruiz fight, combined with a handful of other shaky sequences where power and offense worked against Joshua. The ex-champ has been able to soldier through some tough spots before, and that’s a quality that could aid him in this fight. The fact still remains that he can be reached, and when he is, he doesn’t have the greatest of all chins. He makes up for it with his own offense, toughness, determination, and the ability to brave a storm, but he’s far from invulnerable.
Part of me feels that the window has passed for Joshua. They tried to milk something, but it didn’t work. Instead of what was a more-winnable fight against Wilder or a domestic blockbuster with Tyson Fury where everyone was undefeated and standing to make mega-bucks, he gets two fights of less fanfare with the more-difficult Usyk and loses both and makes less money. He’s now taking other fights with the appeal for a third Usyk fight minimal, and while the activity is helpful and he has looked pretty good, you wonder how long a well-traveled veteran can meander through the dangerous waters at heavyweight rolling the dice against young, ambitious, and dangerous contenders such as Dubois.
I can understand the odds. Joshua still represents a pretty hefty package and is an altogether more reliable proposition from a betting angle. I just think that Dubois, now as IBF champ, has developed into a good enough young heavyweight with the X-factor of punching power to rate as a reasonable upset-candidate in this spot. I think below +300 would put it out of range, but the robust Bovada line of +375 is a juicy-enough piece of fruit to dangle for the taking. I’ll take a shot on Daniel Dubois in this one.
My Prediction to Win the Fight:
I’m betting on Daniel Dubois to win at +375 betting odds. Joshua is rightfully a substantial favorite and hardly seems finished based on recent showings, but Dubois seems to have found a new gear the last few years. His youth and power make him an interesting underdog.
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