Anthony Joshua and Dillian Whyte Fight Analysis & Predictions

Anthony Joshua (25-3, 22 KOs) vs. Dillian Whyte (29-3, 19 KOs)

When: Saturday, August 12, 2023

Where: O2 Arena, London, England

TV: DAZN

Weight Class: Heavyweights:

Betting Odds: Anthony Joshua (-650), Dillian Whyte (+400)—Odds by Bovada

Fight Analysis:

Former champion Anthony Joshua continues his attempted climb back to the top as he takes on a familiar foe in countryman Dillian Whyte. Two losses to Oleksandr Usyk have left Joshua in an unfamiliar spot of rebuilding his brand. After a get-well win against Jermaine Franklin in April in this same arena, Joshua now puts his comeback into another gear against the dangerous Whyte. And while Whyte, two years older than Joshua at 35, has incurred a few setbacks since their first meeting, he has remained a dangerous and well-regarded contender this entire time. Who can get it done in this high-stakes rematch?

The urgency is high. When they first met in 2015, it was a high-stakes battle of unbeaten young heavyweights, but their respective careers had more margin for error. A loss here would be a setback where it’s iffy whether either man could recover. Their first fight was a memorable back-and-forth bout. Joshua was dominant but badly hurt en route to a 7th-round TKO win. Their first fight was, in many ways, a portal into the pros and cons of each man that still hold true to this day. In addition, time has revealed some new wrinkles, and as is often the case, it’s not to the benefit of the fighters.

Joshua has his drawbacks but has been a stalwart professional for the most part. He is always in impeccable shape. He might have suffered some strategic setbacks, but he is consistent and doesn’t undermine himself. To beat Joshua, you’re not going to get any help from him because he didn’t train well. Whyte, meanwhile, has suffered from massive lapses in the ring mentally, often showing up woefully out of shape. Even in fights where you’d be certain he’d put himself through the paces, he comes in super-heavy. This isn’t something that generally works itself out as a heavyweight gets into his mid-thirties.

For Joshua to be coming off back-to-back defeats with the one win since then is indeed troubling. Usyk, however, is a unique fighter whose style is not going to be similar to a lot of other heavyweights Joshua faces. Whyte is a more straightforward proposition and one that Joshua has already vanquished. We’ve also seen Joshua purport himself better in rematches or, at the very least, make certain tactical adjustments that put him in a better spot to get the win. After some haphazard moments against Whyte in their first fight, perhaps Joshua opts for a safer approach this time around. With the stakes so high and a loss likely to put the skids on what was a gold mine career not too long ago, I’d expect a high-alert approach from Joshua where he eschews entertainment for prudence.

Another interesting theory is that Whyte is more accustomed to this status. They’re both contenders, just like before. Whyte has been on the cusp of title shots for what seems like forever, coming up short of Tyson Fury in 2022. Joshua, on the other hand, lands in this spot with more of a thud. No longer is he the preeminent champion bowling over all comers. He lost his belt, won it back, and made one defense before the two losses to Usyk. When once-dominant fighters are on a 3-3 run in their last six fights, it’s fair to sound the alarm bells.

Alas, there are levels in this. There is a reason besides mere happenstance why Joshua has 12 world title fights under his belt, and Whyte has one. And there is a reason why Joshua holds a win over Whyte. You could say it was unfairly denied a shot for years, and you’d be correct, but while Whyte has a resume that is the envy of most heavyweights, his zero title fight wins are going to stand out against an opponent who has nine. But like everything in a breakdown of a fight where there is an actual argument, there is a flip side. Maybe since their first fight, Whyte has managed to preserve himself better than Joshua, who has perhaps accrued more mileage.

In the end, you have two big heavyweights, each of whom is capable of inflicting immediate fight-ending damage. On top of that, neither man is in any way invulnerable. Whyte does not have a bad chin, and you could even say Joshua’s chin is underrated, but both men can be reached and hurt. It makes for a fight that might have a lot of twists and turns. And that’s not really what you want when considering a stand on such a heavy favorite as Joshua.

Joshua may not be the same fighter, but expecting Whyte to be fresh as a daisy might be wishful thinking too. Both men might be pretty close to each other in terms of the boxing hourglass. To take an underdog position against a waning former champ on a guy who has shown he can come within a hair of stopping him when he was young and undefeated isn’t a bad move, though. History has taught us this is not when a former champion’s best work is forthcoming. At a lower quote, Joshua might be an attractive option, but at -650, it’s hard to justify. Considering Whyte’s dangerousness and their prior history, one is almost compelled to take a whirl at +400. I’ll take a shot on Whyte in the rematch.

My Prediction to Win the Fight:

I’m betting on Dillian Whyte at +400 betting odds. Whyte is definitely the more-dicey part of this equation, with his consistency and conditioning always in question. But with Joshua’s career direction going the wrong way and Whyte bringing so much punching power to the table, there seems to be some nice value at +400. Bet your Joshua/Whyte pick for FREE by scoring a 100% real cash bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $500 when you enter bonus promo code PREDICT100 at MyBookie Sportsbook!