Battling the Books: March Madness 3/20

Yale Bulldogs vs Texas A&M Aggies Prediction
Thursday March 20th at 4:25 p.m. PST

It’s time to dance.
The Big Dance.
Which teams will be Fred Astaire, which teams will be Elaine Benes?
All will be revealed over the next three weeks.

I’m buying the Under in the game between #13 Yale and #4 Texas A&M.
Why?
Because looking over my charts for the season I see that I’ve had my best success at identifying games to play the Under on.
But more than that – it qualifies as an A vs B spot.
If you’ve been reading my articles and posts you’ll know what I’m talking about.
If not, take a minute and check out my previous article and you’ll see the details on the play explained in detail.

The record on these plays is 3-21, or in other words, a 21-3, 87% Fade.

It also qualifies for the subcategory because it has a point differential of 18 or more, record 0-5.

I’m not recommending anyone jump on the streak unless you’ve already banked a few units from the last plays shared here, in which case you may as well ride it out.

This game opened at 141′ and is down to 139′ at most books. It will be tough to hit an Under on it, I’m going against some really ugly numbers that scream, “Take the Over!”
Yale games average 151 PPG.
Texas A&M games average 143 PPG.
Both are higher than the number I’m getting here.

Yale is in the top 25 teams in the country for scoring.
They’re number nine for hitting three pointers, and it doesn’t help that Texas A&M is ranked 168th in the country at defending threes.

I was wondering how these teams performed under the pressure of the tournament last season.
And the ugly gets uglier.
Both of Yale’s games sailed over last year (154 and 142 points scored), as did Texas A&M’s (181 and 195 points scored.) Neither team had any difficulty scoring last year in the tournament environment.
But, different teams, different opponents, a different year.

A play with a W percentage of 87% is ripe for reversion toward the mean. But I have to stick with my system and go with it one more time.

My Play:

Yale/Texas A&M Un 139′

Recap: 1-0
Record (college): 4-3
Review:
I have under 140.
The game is tied 68-68.
With 40 seconds left.
Trouble.
With just 12 seconds left, there’s a foul, and I’m getting a free throw on a one-and-one.
I’m saved?
No. He misses.
With THREE seconds left on the clock Alabama State is inbounding under their opponent’s basket. And I’m about to get screwed by overtime.
Except . . .
A floor length pass, a scramble for the ball under the basket, and with one second left on the clock Amarr Knox makes the layup.

From the article where I gave the write-up and pick:
“When to buy: I have no idea which way this number is going to go, but I’d lean towards it dropping, so I bought it today (Un 140.)”
The game closed at 135′, landed on 138.
A smart early buy gets me a W instead of an L.
A good way to start the tournament.
Next!