Battling the Books | July 7

Confessions of an Action Junkie

I had no plays yesterday.
Nothing qualified based on the parameters I use for the various handicapping methods I employ. But I didn’t have any plays the previous day either, so yeah, I forced a couple of picks because I didn’t want to leave our site visitors hanging without any picks two days in a row.

Plus, it was a Saturday, and what’s a weekend without some action?

But here’s the thing – it’s not a move I would make if I wasn’t sitting at 3-2. Forcing bets should be avoided no matter what your record is, but if you’re on the plus side of the ledger, you have a little bit of leeway to play with, so what the hell, why not?
BUT . . . if you’re in the red, DON’T force a play, no matter how much you want a little action/fun. You’ll usually find yourself digging an even deeper hole. And you know what the first rule of digging holes is, don’t you?
STOP DIGGING!

Recap: 1-1
Record: 4-3

Review: And speaking of digging holes, I was thisclose to digging myself one yesterday.
I had McBride Over 2′ three-pointers and Hines-Allen Over 9′ points.

First shot of the game for Minnesota?
McBride swishes a three-pointer.
First shot of the game for Washington?
Hines-Allen sinks a two-pointer.
I can’t ask for a better start, and I’m off to the races. Or so I thought.

Midway through the third quarter, Hines-Allen is sitting at 8 pts. She’s at the free throw line, shooting two. She hits the first one, and I’m ready to bank a unit.
She misses the second one and I’m thinking, “Oh boy, that’s going to come back to haunt me.”
With just 1:26 left in the game, both prop bets are looking like losers. I’m staring at an 0-2 night, cursing myself for being an Action Junkie and forcing two bets when I didn’t have anything that fit any of my systems.
Then, Miyesha Hines-Allen shoots and . . . SCORES!!!
McBride hit .500 from three-point range but only took four shots, so I missed that one by the hook.
And was very fortunate that I got the split.

Today’s Play

One of my Over-Under systems kicked out a play today on the Atlanta Connecticut game to go Over. The game opened at 1:52 and is down to 150’/150 now. Wait to buy this until right before tip off, you might get 149/149′.
The record on this totals play is 5-3.
The record on Overs is 3-1.
I have a small subset of that 3-1 that has a record of 2-1.

Head to head this year, these two have one Ov and one Un.
PPG average offense has Atlanta 76 and Connecticut 80.
PPG average defense has Atlanta 81 and Connecticut 73.
Any combination of those numbers points towards an Over.

Here’s what I like about the play:
In their last ten games, Atlanta has exceeded today’s number 9 times.
In their last ten games, Connecticut has gone Over this number 8 times.

Here’s what I don’t like about this play:
In their game that went Over, it only cleared the mark by two points.
And in the game that stayed Under they only scored 119 points. And that was an early Sunday game, just like today.

But based on recent performances, PPG averages, and my own numbers on this play, I’m on the Over.

I also took one property today, Odyssey Sims over 10′ pts. Sims is averaging 12.8 PPG and she’s playing well lately, going over today’s number in four of her last five games.

Atl/Con Ov 150
Sims Ov 10′ points