Battling the Books | July 3

The Caitlin’s Crap Out in Vegas

The Indiana Fever started out the season losing five games in a row and eight of their first ten. They finally strung together a few wins, but only against teams with losing records.
Then on this past Sunday they went on the road and had their first quality win against a team with a winning record, the Phoenix Mercury.
And the headlines blared, “The Country Has Caught a Fever – The Indiana Fever!”

The win was their fifth in their last seven games, and sports writers gushed that the Fever had turned the corner and put the rest of the league on notice.
They had arrived.
But then they arrived in Vegas to play the champs, the Las Vegas Aces.

How big was this game?
The league had to move it from Michelob Ultra Arena to the larger T-Mobile Arena to accommodate ticket sales.
And ESPN made it a nationally televised game.

Off their biggest win of the year, in front of more than 20,000 fans, and on national TV, Caitlin and her gang got whupped by 19 points, 88-69.

They put up an embarrassing 13 point second quarter. Can’t do worse, right?
“Hold my beer”, said the fourth quarter, which saw the Fever barely escape a single-digit quarter, reaching a lofty 10 points.

So much for “The Country Has Caught a Fever – The Indiana Fever!” The only one who was sick last night was Caitlin fans and bettors who took the Over.

Every tourist who flies into Vegas has dreams of hitting it big.
Every tourist flies out of Vegas with those dreams crushed, just like Indiana last night.

They hit on a 12 and got dealt a face card.
Their point was six and they rolled a seven.
They bet on red, and the ball lands in black.
The wheels on the slot machine stop spinning and they had cherries, a lemon, and an onion.

Indiana left Vegas like most people leave Vegas – losers! The only difference is the tourist’s loss is private, the Fever’s loss, and embarrassment, is public.

Recap: 0-1
Record: 1-1

Review: My pick lost with Ov 178′ in the Indy/Vegas game. A 50-point first quarter put the game on pace for 200, but after a 24-point Q1 the Fever put up just 13 points in Q2 and the Over was dead at halftime.
When I quit watching early in Q3, Clark was 1-7 from the field, 0-4 from 3-point range.
And Nalyssa Smith was at 1-7 on FT’s. 1-7!
Smith is the WNBA’s version of Shaq.

Today’s picks

When things look too good to be true it’s usually a sign to stay away. But I’ll bite on tonight’s game.
The game doesn’t qualify for any of the systems I use so this is purely a gut feel play. I’m taking the Phoenix Mercury -4′ to beat the Dallas Wings.

The Wings are 1-12 in the month of June and every one of their losses is by six points or more.

Phoenix is in a foul mood coming off two losses at home to Indy and Connecticut. What better place to go for an angry team than Dallas, the home of the worst team in the league.

One of the reasons Dallas is tied for the worst record at 4-15 is because they have the last-place defense, surrendering 88 points per game.
They also have the worst point differential in the league at -8.3.

I’m leery because -4′ looks like a gift and the books don’t give out gifts, but at 9-10 Phoenix is one game below .500 and this is a great spot for them to get back to even.
They’re just 2-6 SU on the road, but every one of those losses were against the top five teams in the league. Dallas is nowhere near that class.

I’m also adding a little prop action for fun.
In the Mercury’s last game, a loss to the second-place Connecticut Sun (and one of the best defenses in the league), Kahleah Copper scored 21 of Phoenix’s 72 points.
That’s almost 30% of the team’s scoring!
And she likes playing against Dallas’s slack defense, putting up 32 points and 29 points in their previous two meetings this season.

Phoenix -4′
Kahleah Copper Ov 20′ points -125

Open bet: Oklahoma -40′
June record, all sports, 16-13