Battling the Books: Oregon State vs. UCF Bet

Oregon State/UCF Prediction

Game time: 5:30 ET
Line: UCF -4′

In my NBA article today I discarded the infamous asterisk play and actually bet against it. In college, I’m embracing it.
In the NBA, the spot recently stopped being profitable. In college, it has a record of 1-3 in tournament play, still a profitable Fade after a very profitable regular season.
Today, WF1 says Oregon State should be the Fav and WF2 says UCF is going to easily beat the spread, more than doubling it.
This qualifies it for the asterisk spot.

WF2 has a postseason record of 17-22, a 52% Fade.
WF1 has a postseason record of 15-6, a 71% play ON spot.
Makes this one a no-brainer from a handicapping point of view.

Here are some traditional stats to add to my model saying take the Knights:

UCF is 13-1 as a Fav.
Oregon State is 1-8 as a Dog.
Ya gotta like that with UCF as a small Fav today.

ATS at neutral sites, like today, the Beavers are 1-3, the Knights are 3-2.
Ya gotta like that too.

More to like – Massey has UCF ranked at 64, Oregon State is 37 spots behind them at 101.
Oregon State SOS (strength of schedule) rating 104, UCF 43, a differential of 61!

My play:

UCF -4′ Accounting Update

March article picks: 13-8, 61%
College 6-4
NBA 2-3
UFL 2-0
NASCAR 3-1

March was my 10th month here at PredictEm.
Here’s the month-by-month record for recommended plays from my articles:
June 16-13
July 13-12
Aug 15-3
Sept 10-10.5
Oct 12-7
Nov 10-6
Dec 5-8
Jan 4-3
Feb 1-2
Mar 13-8
Total: 99-72.5, 57%.

Over 170 picks recommended and a winning record.

Only three of ten months with a losing record, Sept by .5, Dec by three plays, and Feb by 1.
Steadily grinding out a profit.

Screwed up in September by betting two MLB games, a sport I don’t handicap as stated as a warning in the article. I made two bets on the Orioles, side and total, because they used to be my favorite team.
Lost them both, got what I deserved.

But I hit my main goal – DON’T LOSE MONEY.
Hit my secondary goal – finish with a profit, ANY profit.
Missed my secondary goal of hitting 67% but that’s more of a goal for a particular Sports within a season, nobody realistically expects to hit 67% on close to 200 picks.
And of course I hit my other goal – HAVE FUN!

I had a lot of fun.
I’m HAVING a lot of fun.
Hope you all are too.