Six Strategies for Betting NFL Regular Season Win Totals
The question is – which team to bet on?
Below are six different suggestions to help you choose a team.
1 – Your Favorite Team
One of the most popular methods for choosing a Regular Season Win Total is to bet on your favorite team. The pitfall to using this method is fans want to see their team win, so when they look at the betting line they have a biased viewpoint towards the team going Over the established total.
If you’re wagering for fun and not for income – and you SHOULD be – there’s no harm in betting your team to go Over their total and rooting for them and your money.
It’s just like any other form of entertainment you spend your disposable income on, like going out for dinner and a movie. As long as you don’t go overboard on your wager amount there’s nothing wrong with betting on your favorite team for some season-long fun.
Some fans bet their favorite team to go Under the total. They see it as a win-win wager.
If their team goes Over they lose their wager but they’re happy because their team won a lot of games.
If their team goes Under they’re unhappy because the team lost a lot of games but they’re happy because they won money and added to their bankroll.
Personally, I think it’s a ridiculous way to bet, but many people do it.
(Exception to it being ridiculous – if my team, the Seahawks, are in the Super Bowl, I’m DEFINITELY betting on the other team. It’s a win-win situation.)
2 – The Team You Hate
We’ve all got one.
The team we despise.
The team we love to bet against, root against, and rejoice when they lose.
It could be your favorite team’s rival, such as the Chicago Bears if you’re a Green Bay Packers fan, or the Kansas City Chiefs if you’re a Raiders fan.
It could be the team that broke your heart when they beat your favorite team in the Super Bowl.
For example, I will always hate the New York Mets for beating my Orioles in the 1969 World Series.
That was not only the year I got my heart broken for the first time, it was also the year that I lost my religion when I realized there is no God after my prayers that Boog Powell would hit a home run went unanswered. (Yes, as an adult, I now realize God’s a busy guy and may have had more important prayers to answer, so I’ll forgive Him for that. But He still owes ALL of us an apology for the Kardashians.)
3 – Local Teams Televised in your Area
I made my first Regular Season Win Total bets when I was growing up in New Jersey. The only teams televised each week were the Jets and the Giants. I didn’t like either team but I wanted a rooting interest on Sunday morning and Sunday afternoon so I bet their games whether I had a system play or gut feel on it or not. This was detrimental to my bankroll. Then I learned about betting team totals. Now I could make one bet, have a rooting interest on their entire season, and not do damaged to my bankroll.
4 – Fading the Know-Nothing Know-it-All
There was a time when the number of sports personalities was limited to those you found on TV, radio, magazines, and newspapers.
The internet changed all that.
Now you get to choose from dozens of guys who don’t know what they’re talking about.
I was running some errands, driving down the highway with my radio on scan, searching for something interesting to listen to. When it paused on a sports radio show talking about the NFL I stopped the scan.
The topic was the Cincinnati Bengals Regular Season Wins, and the sportscaster claimed he had a guaranteed winner – the Over.
“Guaranteed Winner” always gets my attention but not for the reason the speaker/handicapper is aiming for. There’s no such thing as a guaranteed winner. It’s tout- talk. It’s a marketing con. It’s buffoonery. It’s the jackassery of a jackanape. And immediately my mind turns to Fading the fool.
If I heard any solid reasonings given for taking Cincinnati Over I would have kept an open mind. But all I heard was empty rhetoric, meaningless numbers, and insignificant stats, so I began doing my own research on the 2024 Bengals. And I found that I liked the Under.
I didn’t make my bet solely because the sports jock was so high on taking them Over. His pick and lack of solid reasonings only inspired me to take a deeper look for myself.
The opinion of sports analysts and handicappers can point you in a direction, but the ultimate decision is yours.
There’s a wealth of information out there, some of it valid, much of it not.
5 – Coaches on the Hot Seat
Which teams have coaches entering the season on the hot seat and might be prime candidates for an Under?
A good example of this would be Bill Belichick and the Patriots in 2023. Everyone knew coming into the season that his job was in jeopardy. That alone would make the Patriots a good target for the Under, but they also had a lack of talent at all key positions. They had a mediocre quarterback and no superstar running back or receivers.
New England’s 2023 total was set at 6′.
They went 4-13.
A winner for the Under, and for those who bet based on the Coach on the Hot Seat theory.
There’s an enormous amount of pressure that comes with being a head coach in any season, under any circumstances. Many good men have cracked under the stress and strain from the anxiety that comes with the position.
But, for example, when you’re in the final year of a 3-year contract to rebuild a team, and you’re coming off of two losing seasons, the pressure increases ten-fold.
You have impatience raining down on you from the owners who hired you to win, and win NOW.
You have the persecution of the fans in the stands expressing their displeasure by booing your every move.
And you have the second-guessing media who can turn from friendly, adoring Labrador when you’re winning, to an angry, attacking Pitbull when you’re losing.
Coaches on the hot seat should always be given a thorough look when you’re hunting for a team to bet Under.
6 – The Hard Knocks Edge
Wagering is simply gathering all the information you can then making an informed decision on where to place your money. And each season there is one team that you’ll get a little more information on than the rest of the league. You get an inside look, thanks to HBO’s Hard Knocks.
The team featured in the preseason version of Hard Knocks gives you a detailed look at one team each year.
From watching it you can get a feel for if you think the featured team is going to have an up year or down year.
Do you like their coaches and the roster decisions they made?
Do you like their schedule?
Do you sense confidence or apprehension?
Hard Knocks can be a valuable tool for identifying a team to play for Regular Season Wins.There you have it. Six ways to help you identify a possible candidate for your Regular Season Win bet.
Once you’ve chosen your team it’s time to do all your standard handicapping:
Study the teams in their division since they’re the ones your team will be playing twice.
Check their upcoming schedule and mark games you think they’ll win with a W, mark games you think they’ll lose with an L, and put a U next to undecided. What does their record look like based on your projections?
Do a deep dive on their roster.
Which players from last year’s team are gone? How did they do in the free agent market?
How did they do in the draft?
Is anyone holding out in a contract dispute?
And check the injury report. Are any of their key players going to miss the first game or two?
Come up with your projection for the team’s record, compare it to the number the books are offering, make your decision and place your wager.
One last piece of advice when betting Regular Season Win Totals – look for Unders.
Why?
Because injuries are inevitable.
Here’s an excerpt from my July 12th article at PredictEm, with my first pick for an NFL Regular Season Win Total for 2024:
“Fresh off a 12-4 record in 2022, the books hung an 11′ on Cincinnati for 2023.
Let’s say you liked the Over.
Let’s say you bet on the Over.
Here’s a question I have for you – how were you feeling on November 16th, when the Baltimore Ravens knocked Joe Burrows out for the season?
Betting on team totals is risky if you’re taking the Over.”Cincinnati went 9-8 in 2023.
A win for the Under.
Injuries to players for the team you bet on won’t affect the Under, but they can be devastating to a bet on the Over. Something important to keep in mind when laying your money down.
Good luck to you all on whatever team you choose this season, and whatever way you choose to go – Over or Under.