NFL Preseason Betting Insights: Hall of Fame Game Myth & More
NO Edge for Hall of Fame Teams in Game Two
I heard that teams who played in the Hall of Fame game have an edge over teams that are playing their first game.
No doubt you’ve heard it, too.
So what’s the story, is it true or not?
I know some of you are wondering about the stats so I did a 5-year look back for you.
Here’s what I found.
Hall of Fame game teams in their second game of the season, (week 1 preseason):
- SU: 4-6
- ATS: 4-6
- Favs: 2-3
- Dogs: 2-3
- Hm Favs 2-2
- Rd Favs 0-1
- Hm Dogs 0-0
- Rd Dogs 2-3
- Ov 6
- Un 4
The claim that Hall of Fame teams have an edge over teams playing their first game is just another sports betting myth, like the “Vegas Trap Line” or “Vegas Fixes Games” (topics for a future article, with the straight dope from INSIDE the casino.)
The stats come in at around .500, except the Over, which at 6-4 has a 60% edge, but only by a slight margin of two games in this small sample.
Digging deeper I found this:
Totals of 37 or more: 0-4 on Overs.
That’s a stat worth applying to this week’s games when looking for a possible wager.
The Hall of Fame game teams are Chicago and Houston. Here’s how they look this week.
Friday, August 9th, Houston at Pittsburgh
The Steelers opened at -2′, 35′
The current line is Texans -2′, 37′
Saturday, August 10th, Chicago at Buffalo
The Bills opened at -1, 36′
The line moved to Bears -1, 38
The line moved back to Buffalo -1
Both totals would qualify for the Under based on the 0-4 stat noted above.
The line has moved a full five points against Pittsburgh, which might seem strange to handicappers who know that Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin is one of the few coaches who cares about winning preseason games.
His overall record is 40-24 SU.
He’s 15-3 the last five years. That’s 83%!
Sure, the scales might start to tip the other way as reversion towards the mean comes into play, but 15-3 is not a stat that I want to go against.
UNLESS . . . going against that stat has me betting against quarterbacks Russell Wilson and Justin Fields, like this game does.
Kenny Pickett is gone (for a guy who just two drafts ago was supposed to be the future of the franchise, the Steelers sure gave up on him quickly.) The current lineup has the Denver Disaster Russell Wilson and the Chicago Cast Off Justin Fields battling it out for the starting job.
Suddenly, head coach Tomlin’s 15-3 over the last five preseasons looks insignificant.
Tomlin says Wilson has a slight edge to be the starter but the final decision will be based on preseason play.
To me, this means Wilson and Fields are going to be desperate to make an impression.
It means both will be forcing throws and chucking up prayers.
That will surely lead to an INT or two, or a sack/fumble from holding on to the ball too long while waiting for someone to come open down field.
BE SMART! BET ON GAMES AT -105 INSTEAD OF -110 AT BETANYSPORTS!
On the other side of the pitch (sorry about that, I’ve been binge watching Deadpool’s “Welcome to Wrexham”) we have Houston’s backup QB’s, Mills and Keenum, both of whom threw a touchdown last week. And this week we’ll get CJ Stroud in for a series or two, which should add to the scoring.
As it is with most wagers, I see stats and reasons to support a play on either side in this game. I just can’t see clearly enough to make a pick on the side or total.
So I looked for a team total play.
Last week I based my bet on an expectation that Houston would get at least 16 points.
They got 17, so I looked at them again this week.
Their team total isn’t out yet but based on the current spread it’ll come in at 19’/20′.
(How do you figure out a team total? I posted the formula at the bottom of this article.)
Here’s a team total stat on Hall of Fame game teams in preseason week one: they average 23 PPG on offense. Based on that, I like Houston’s team total going Over, but when I dig deeper I find that of the ten teams we’re looking at in this scenario only five went over 20 points in their second game.
5-5, no edge there either.
Conclusion – no play on this one for me.
So why do a write up on it?
- – I know some of you are going to bet on this nationally televised game so I wanted to share some stats and help you make an informed decision before putting your money down.
- – I wanted to warn bettors who heard the “Play ON Hall of Fame Teams in their Second Game” theory and were thinking of playing it.
- – I want to show new bettors what handicapping really is – crunching a bunch of numbers only to come up with . . . nothing.
The overwhelming majority of times you get conflicting stats that don’t give you an edge to bet on.
But it’s not a waste of time.
If you look at 49 different scenarios and come up with nothing, the time spent was well worth it when you find that gold nugget on the 50th one (like the 72% WNBA play I have for next Friday, August 16th.)
One more bit ‘o info if you’re still trying to decide on who to bet in this game.
In my last NFL post I said: “It’s great because there are dozens of podcasters making home videos with their picks. And I find these to be a wealth of misinformation.”
Two comments:
First – I accidentally cut off the sentence that preceded the one above (sorry about that.)
The missing sentence talked about the growth of the internet and how bettors can find dozens of sports reporters/handicappers providing picks and opinions to analyze.
Second – here’s this week’s example of the “wealth of misinformation” on the internet.
In an analysis on the Texans/Steelers game, a handicapper included a comparison of Houston QB CJ Stroud and Pittsburgh QB Connor Hayward.
Yes, Pittsburgh “quarterback” Connor Hayward.
If anyone fails to take my meaning, it’s simply this – Connor Hayward is a tight end.
The handicapper goes on to mention what a great year Hayward had last season, passing for more than 4000 yards. I have no idea who he’s talking about since neither Wilson nor Fields had anywhere close to 4,000 passing yards last year, and neither did Pittsburgh’s departed starter Pickens.
I rest my case re: a wealth of misinformation.
(His pick is Pit 24-17, which tells me Houston and the Under.)
Today’s play (for Friday, Aug 9.)
Calgary (wait to buy)
(I said I can’t come up with a play on Hou/Pit, that doesn’t mean I’m gonna leave you hanging with no bets this weekend.)
Here are my stats, short and sweet:
Same WF (Wrong Fav) system I used on Edmonton last week.
This play is now 7-1 ATS overall.
Road teams, like Calgary this week, are 4-1 ATS.
Calgary is 0-4 SU on the road, which means to win this bet I need them to erase that zero (or lose by just one point) since the current line is +2.
This is the second game in a home/away, B2B (Back to Back) series. The Stampeders beat the Argos 27-23 at home last week.
I believe this is the third home/away B2B scenario this season, and the winner of the first game in the previous two spots also won the second game.
This line opened at Toronto -1′ which was too low.
It’s already up to -2/-2′. Our sponsor Xbet had it at +3 this morning (8/8) but that got snatched up quickly and it’s back to 2′.
The line is moving in my direction and the game’s not until tomorrow so the correct strategy is to wait to buy it and see if I can get a better number.
NFL record: 1-0
CFL record: 3-2
August record: 2-0
Review: Last Saturday I got lucky for the second week in a row with what looked like a pig of a pick on the stat lines.
It’s not fun placing a bet on a team that’s 0-7, but it’s a LOT of fun watching them fight for four quarters and come away with a win!
How to Determine a Team Total
Take the total and divide it by 2.
For the team total of the Fav, add half of the spread to that number.
For the Dog, subtract half from the spread.
Example:
Let’s say the line is Houston -3, total of 40.
Divide the total by 2, you get 20 points.
For Houston, add half of the spread (1′) to 20 and you have Houston’s team total of 21′.
For Pittsburgh, subtract half of the spread from 20 and you have their team total, 18′.)
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