NCAAF Mid Season Report – Coastal Carolina vs. James Madison Pick

Last week was my first week in the college football season with a losing record, 1-0 on my homepage pick and 1-0 in the forum.
It was also the week with the least amount of college picks given, just two.
Coincidence?
Nope.
I wasn’t feeling it.
After running every game on the card through my various systems, I ended up with no NP Under plays.
I took this as a bad sign, telling me to go easy on college this weekend.
And I was right, I went 0-2.
And the third game I almost bought lost, too, so I saved a unit there.

Stepping back for the week was just a gut feeling and one that turned out to be correct.
Yes, Jimi, to answer your question, I Am Experienced (someone will get that reference), experienced enough to know that you don’t win every week. And, the Krusty the Clown Due Theory aside (see my article dated July 6), I knew I was due for a down week. I felt it in my bones, so I decided to step back for the week to reduce possible losses (in theory anyway, though it turned out to be a reality too.)

Good instinct is as important to handicapping as having good numbers to use for your plays.

We’re at the halfway mark, so it’s time to do a breakdown of my play in the first half – figure out what is my record on Favs, Dogs, Overs, and Unders. Where I am making money and where I am losing money.
As I enter the second half of the season I want to have as much data available as possible to ensure that I’m well prepared going into these final weeks.

Homepage column record 9-4
(Correction: in my column dated September 20, I gave myself a record of 6-2. While doing my breakdown I saw that I only had one loss going into 9/20, the Auburn Under on 9/14. I reread all my articles and matched it up against the log book where I chart and track my homepage plays, and verified the correction. So a side benefit of doing a breakdown is catching mistakes – whether they improve my record or not.

Accuracy is key; I use these numbers to decide where to put my money.
Having incorrect data can hurt me.
If anyone ever sees an error, please notify me through the site. I do a LOT I work with numbers so the possibility for mistakes always exists.

Forum record: 9-5 Combined record, homepage, and forum, 18-9, 67%.
I’m holding the Grail I seek, 67%, with over 25 picks given.
I love college football.

And here’s the breakdown:

Homepage 9-4
Favs 2-2
Dogs 2-1
Ov 0-0
Un 5-1

Forum 9-5
Favs 4-1
Dogs 1-0
Ov 0-2
Un 4-2

Combined 18- 9
Favs 6-3
Dogs 3-1
Ov 0-2
Un 9-3

I won’t say, “If you don’t track your play and use that knowledge, then you deserve it if you lose.”
But I will say that if you’re serious about handicapping and winning, you put yourself at a serious disadvantage if you’re only looking at numbers for the teams you’re thinking of betting on.
YOUR numbers are more important.

Analyzing my breakdown I see I’m doing well with Favs (67%) and kicking bookie ass on Unders at 75%.
Somewhere, in one of those articles I’ve written since coming on board at PredictEm, I’m sure I mentioned college football is my strongest sport, and Unders are my strongest play. And in 2024, it’s still the same.
College football is still the only sport I’ve made an investment-size wager on this year (the W with Oklahoma in my first pick of the season) rather than just action-size bets.
I plan to have a few more investment plays before the end of the year, most likely in bowl games where I have some really high-percentage plays to use.

Only negative category from the first half is Overs at 0-2, but no need to avoid them, I’ve only used two, not enough to say it’s a weak area for me.

My second half success will depend on if my methods for identifying strong plays for the Under will continue or suffer a reversion to the mean. AND if I can come up with a new method/system to use?
(See the PredictEm college football forum later this week for more information on that. I’m going to test run a new method that kicked out nine totals this week.)
The picture accompanying this article shows where my various plays are as I begin the stretch run.

NP Unders (purple ink) are 17-7, 70%.

T1 Overs provide a solid Fade at 4-8.

T1 Unders are 8-4, 67%

H/C (trend reversal plays on totals) are viable at 6-2 for Overs.

WF1 is 10-5 on Rd games, another 67% play I can use.

And then there’s the play with no name, the one marked by an orange asterisk, the one that’s working across all sports:
NFL 0-5
WNBA 3-6
College football 5-8
That’s a great Fade at a combined 8-19, 70%!

So there you have a breakdown of my play and the handicapping methods I’m working with.
It was a fun first half.
Let’s get the second half started.

With no asterisk plays to use this week, I turn to one of my Wrong Fav systems.
WF1 is 12-7.
Hm 2-2
Rd 10-5, 67%.
I’ve got one Rd spot to use this week, Coastal Carolina at James Madison.
The Chanticleers and Dukes are both 4-1, SU. And they’re both 3-2 ATS.

Who’s had the tougher schedule?

JM has beaten up on Charlotte (3-3), Gardner-Webb (1-5 FCS), North Carolina (3-3), and Ball State (1-4.)
They lost to UL Monroe (4-1) last week.

CC has wins over Jacksonville St (2-3), William & Mary (4-2, FCS), Temple (1-5), a loss to Virginia (4-1), and Old Dom (1-4).

Slight edge SOS to CC, but nothing to write home about.
Point differential PF/PA shows a huge disparity. CC is +41, JM is +104. The difference is due to the defense side of the ball where the Chanticleers have given up 148 points while the Dukes have held opponents to just 91.

Despite having similar records overall, the Dukes are in second place in the conference at 0-1, while the Chanticleers are in first place at 1-0. So JM will be looking to even up those records.
And they’re at home.

I don’t like playing weekday games because it is an extra added factor to consider when you’re handicapping.
But, just gut feel, 9′ points seems to be a bit much for J Mad to be giving to Coastal. And I have a strong system (WF1 Rd spot) that says take CC.
So that’s what I’m doing.

When to Buy Recommendation
The line opened it JM -9.
It’s currently at -9′, with most houses having extra juice on the home team.
That being the case, I’ll wait to buy it, hoping to get +10 tomorrow. Worst case, if it starts to drop, I’ll still be able to get +9.
I’ll do an update on the line I get in the forum.

Thursday’s play:

Coastal Carolina (wait to buy)

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