Battling the Books: Den/Min “Asterisk Play”

NBA Prediction Minnesota at Denver

Let’s talk about the “obvious” bet.
Going into their last game, at home game against Denver on Monday night, the OKC Thunder were:
29-5 SU at home
52-12 as ATS Favs, 82%
40-24-1 ATS overall
22-11 ATS at home, 67%
2 -1 SU versus Denver this season
2-1 ATS versus Denver this season
Avg margin of victory in the two wins 19 pts

And Denver had a losing record of 15-18 as Road Dogs, including an ass whooping at the hands of OKC by 24 points the night before.

The obvious play was OKC -9.
The final score was Denver 140-127.

If sports betting was simply a matter of betting on the obvious, 98% of bettors would win.
The reality is 98% of bettors lose.
And most of the time, if the public and the pundits are all clamoring and touting one side and you’re on the other side you’re probably in a good position.

Side note – as I pointed out in the NBA section of the PredictEm forum Monday night, Denver was 12-1 SU when playing in the second night of back-to-back games.
They’re 13-1 now after beating the Thunder. They have three of these spots left this season. It’s not an automatic play ON (nothing is in sports betting) but it’s certainly something to remember to factor in when you’re capping those games.

For tonight, I’m backing Denver at home versus Minnesota laying four points.
Reasons?
Just like last game I’m sticking with my own personal, unique handicapping systems for identifying WF’s (Wrong Favorites.)

WF2 says the Timberwolves should be the Favorite tonight. The record for WF2 Road teams is 13 -14, not much of a Fade percentage but a losing record nonetheless.
And here’s the rub: WF1 says Denver is the correct Fav and the point differential between the number for the two systems is enough for this to qualify as, yes – an asterisk play.

I’ve lost with this spot the last two times I used it in the NBA and overall the record is just 3-4 for Road teams. But it’s been a very profitable Fade in all sports so I’m going to give it another chance tonight and hope I don’t get strike three.

Denver’s off one of their biggest wins of the season, beating OKC on the road. They rested last night and are home tonight where they’re 22-9 SU.

The Nuggets are 34-24 as Favs, all games, 16-14 ATS as home Favs.

Minnesota does well on the road and has a winning record in both categories. SU they’re 19-15, ATS 18-16.

The Timberwolves have taken the first two games in the series this year, both at home, 119-116 and 133-104 (Anthony Edwards went off for 34 points and Minnesota shot a season high 56% from the field in that 29 point win.)

Denver was good to me when I used them Monday night and like I always say I try to stick with what works. I’m looking for more of the same in tonight’s game as they build off that key win over the Thunder. And with a 22-9 home record covering four points isn’t asking a lot.

Recap: 1-0
Record: 7-6
Review: Used WF1 for a winner with Denver Monday night. That play is now 38-21 on road teams, 64%.
I have one tonight and I’ll post it in the PredictEm NBA forum.