Battling the Books: Hawks vs. Mavs Pick

Atlanta Hawks at Dallas Mavs Game Pick

NBA Forecast for April 2nd

Game time: 8:30 EST

Line: Dallas -3′

Incentive edge:

As we approach the end of a regular season it’s always good to look at an additional angle when doing your handicapping – which team has something to play for, which team doesn’t?

Tonight, the Hawks are on the road at the Mavs.
Who has the incentive edge?

Atlanta is currently sitting in 8th place in the Eastern Conference with a record of 36-39. They’re eight games ahead of 11th-place Toronto. With just seven games left to play this means the Hawks are guaranteed a playoff spot.

Dallas is 37-39 and sitting in ninth place in the West. They’re one of four teams battling it out for a playoff spot. The Mavs are just one game ahead of 10th-place Sacrament, two games ahead of 11th-place Phoenix, and four games ahead of 12th-place Portland.

Unlike the Hawks, the Mavs do not have a guaranteed playoff spot. They’re going to have to fight to earn it over their final seven games.

Incentive edge: Mavs

In recent play, SU:
Dallas has won three of their last five.
Atlanta has lost three of their last five.
Slight edge to Dallas.

Home/Road recent play, SU:
Atlanta is 17-20 on the road this season overall. Recently, they lost three of their last five Rd games.
Dallas is 20 – 17 at home overall and recently have dropped four of their last five in front of the home crowd.
Slight edge to Atlanta.

Head-to-head:

These two have met only once this season, in Atlanta. Dallas came away with the 129-119 double-digit win.

On the season, Atlanta is 20 -18 ATS on the Rd, and Dallas is 19-18 ATS at Hm.
No edge for either team.

Injuries? The Mavs’ Anthony Davis is a day-to-day, game-time decision. In other words – same as every game (What the hell were the Mavs thinking when they traded for this guy??!!)

Atlanta is in game two of a B2B (back to back games.) Their record SU in these spots is 7-7.
But . . . when game two is a Rd game after a Hm game they are 4-0 SU.
And they’re getting +3′ tonight.

I don’t like bucking that 4-0 trend, but I have some numbers from my own model of handicapping that says go with Dallas tonight.
Both of my models show a Wrong Fav in this game tonight. So I dug a little deeper and looked at how each of these teams have performed when they showed up as either the supposed Wrong Favorite or the team the books made the Fav.
As the WF Atlanta is 1-3 when it qualifies for WF1, 0-4 when it qualifies for WF2.
Combined record 1-7.
As the team to play ON in WF1, Dallas is 3-1.
They’re 1-1 in WF2 for a combined 4-2.

I’m going against that 4-0 trend for the Hawks and riding my numbers and the team with the extra incentive edge.

My Play:

Dal -3′

Recap: 0-1
Record: 7-8

Review: I dropped my NBA play last night, as well as my college play, so my April’s off to a lousy start at 0-2. Got some work to do.

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